(Translator's note: The author of this article is FOX Sports writer Ric Bucher, the content of this article does not represent the views of the translator, the data in this article is as of January 22, 2022 Beijing time.) ）
In most previous NBA seasons, by the middle of the season, it was clear which teams had the talent, roster depth, chemistry, and team tactics needed to be strong contenders for championships.
This season is different, but I made a prediction anyway.
Nearly all teams have been affected because health and safety protocols require teams to quarantine players who test positive for nucleic acid, which has resulted in about a third of the league's players missing games. For months, teams have struggled to assemble at least eight players to meet the minimum number of players for the game.
Some team executives and scouts were asked a simple question: Based on the performance of each team in the first half of the season, which team do you think is a strong contender for the championship, and where are the strengths and weaknesses of the selected team?
The teams in the first group below are the championship contenders they are unanimously optimistic about; the teams in the second group are the choices of two or more of them, but not unanimously favored; and the teams in the third group are favored by only one of them.
A team that is unanimously favored
Milwaukee
Although according to the odds given by FOX Bet, the Warriors (+500, that is, 500 if you bet 100 bets, 600 with a profit), the Suns (+650), and the Nets (+250) have a greater probability of winning the 2022 NBA championship, when asked which team is most likely to win the championship this season, each general manager and scout has said that "of course it is the Bucks", and they believe that the defending champion has every chance to defend the title.
advantage:
The squad was extended. With the exception of Tucker, every major player in the Bucks squad last season is back. Portis' progress and the addition of Grayson Allen did not have much impact on Tucker's departure;
The depth of the squad. This season, the Bucks have added Grayson Allen, Rodney Hood, George Hill and Wesley Matthews.
Alphabet brothers are maturing. 'I've watched him play before and he's passing better now than at any stage before. The general manager of a team in the East said, "He's very selfless on the pitch. "When Brother Alphabet is satisfied with his position on the team, he becomes selfless. In the past, he used to play by his own physical fitness. And now he is truly happy for his teammates and understands that they and himself need each other;;
There is an opportunity to sign another player or two in the buyout market. While there aren't many good players in the buyout market, there are rumors that Golan Dragic, Thaddeus Young, and Robert Covington are all likely to join the Bucks through a buyout, and they are willing to contribute to the team after the Bucks play this season, even if it is a little contribution, just to pursue a championship ring.
inferior position:
Inside height. Brook-Lopez has played just one game after undergoing back surgery, and apart from Lopez, the Bucks now have only one center in the Bucks squad, Portis. The Bucks are optimistic about Lopez's return, but he is 35 years old, how efficient will he be when he returns from injury? Last year, Lopez's defense was greatly underestimated. His three-pointers were crucial to creating space for Alphabet Brother and Ju-Holliday, especially to help them hit the basket;
Outside shots. Middleton's instability as a key scorer is a problem that has been criticized for a long time. The general manager of one Eastern Conference team said: "When Middleton is in status, the Bucks are really hard to beat. The phrase means "he's not always on the line."
The author's opinion:
At the beginning of the season, I thought the Bucks were the most likely team to break out of the East (and could defend their title), especially after seeing that Portis and Alphabet Brother were perfectly compatible and could keep a low profile and not hear anything out of discord. Usually, the defending champions are the most important targets for other teams, they have to resist the fiercest attacks of their opponents every night, and they are constantly subject to speculation and criticism from the outside world, questioning whether they have championship pedigree. Apparently, when faced with a weak team, the Bucks wanted to easily beat their opponents, so they paid the price for a light opponent. But every time they encounter a formidable opponent like the Warriors or the Nets, they always prove themselves.
Phoenix Sun
These team executives and scouts didn't see the Suns at the start of the season as a strong contender for the championship this season, but now, they've changed their minds. A scout for a team in the East said: "I thought they were going to be a bit down this season, but now it seems that they should stay in the discussion of the championship contenders. "Last season was the Suns' first playoff in more than a decade and their first major in the Finals since 1993, but they weren't content with that. After losing 4-2 to the Bucks in last season's Finals, they've behaved like they're about to complete an unfinished business this season.
The squad was extended. Among the main members of the team last season, only Torre Craig left the team;
Offensive and defensive balance. The Suns are the only team in the league to rank in both offensive efficiency (No. 5) and defensive efficiency (No. 2) in the top five;
Lineup depth. Six of the seven main rotation players in the Suns are averaging double-doubles, and the other, Jay Crowder, also has 9.3 points per game.
To be honest, the Suns have only one disadvantage, and that is that they rely too heavily on 36-year-old point guard Paul, who is about to turn 37 in May. So far this season, he hasn't missed a game, but whether he can stay healthy and play the entire intense playoffs has always been a question. However, the Suns are also a team that can attract bought-out players to join.
Before the start of the season, I thought the Suns were the most likely to storm out of the West, but I changed that after noting that the Warriors were stronger than I thought they were and that Booker didn't learn anything from last season's playoff declines. In every series last season, I've seen his shooting choices as bad as this season. At the same time, his mood fluctuates easily, which greatly weakens his otherwise excellent shooting ability. His performance is crucial to whether the Suns can win the championship.
Golden State Warriors
Now everyone recognizes that the Warriors have returned to the championship team, and this is even more appreciative of the way they play. Obviously, the general manager and scouts of each team want them to play selfless basketball, wisdom basketball, and entertainment basketball. The general manager of a team in the East said: "The Warriors have a trait that no other team has, and that is extremely high chemistry. He also stressed that in this regard, the Suns are the second team after the Warriors.
First of all, in today's league, which is dominated by dribbling breakthroughs, the Warriors' way of playing with the ball is unique;
They have veterans who are eager to win another championship ring, and there are also young players who are looking forward to winning their first championship ring;
In addition, the whole team has only one thought: not to win the championship is to lose.
Playoff experience. Wiggins has little playoff experience, while Jordan Poole, Damian Lee, Toscano Anderson, Jonathan Cumminga and Gary Payton II have little playoff experience;
Inside height. Kevin Rooney, who is 6 feet 9 and weighs 220 pounds, is the Warriors' starting center, while James Wiseman, who is 7 feet tall, is uncertain about his return after knee surgery, and whether he will remain in the Warriors is a question. A scout for a team in the East said: "If their center only has Rooney and no other big men to join, then I don't think they can win the championship." ”
Curry constantly instills confidence in new and existing players, letting them know that he has a lot of trust in them, and that no matter what problems they encounter, as long as they are united, they can be solved, which is a phenomenon that is rare in today's league. This belief can make a team stronger than it is on paper. One of the Warriors' big problems is injuries, including Curry, Iguodala and Green, who have suffered injuries that are difficult to completely eliminate. None of the three of them had a natural advantage in size or strength, and if injuries limited their flexibility, their efficiency would also be reduced. If any of the three of them aren't at their best, then the Warriors can't win the championship.
Miami heat
Almost every executive and scout hesitated to make the Heat a strong contender for this season's championship. With Lowry out of six games, Butler out of 18 and Adebayor out of up to 25 games, the Heat still have the second-best record in the East (29-16). You could argue that seeing them as strong contenders for the championship is just respect for their temporarily impressive results. You can also imagine that the absence of these three players will have a greater impact on which of the two ends of the Heat's offensive and defensive ends, but the truth is that the Heat still maintain the third-most offensive efficiency and the seventh defensive efficiency in the league. "I really don't understand how they do it." The second east team general manager said, "But the Heat are really strong. How the injured all return, then it's hard to say they don't have a chance to win the championship. ”
Both the Heat head coach (Spollstra) and the point guard (Lowry) have championship pedigree. They also have one of the best leaders in the league – Butler;
The Heat have the second-highest three-point shooting percentage in the league, and they also have top one-on-one defensive players like Butler, Adebayo, Lowry, Tucker and Markieff Morris.
Guard the basket. Although Adebayor's efficiency this season is career-high, the Heat are still the bottom team in the league in terms of blocks, probably because he has been absent for too long and somewhat "rusty";
There is a lack of real offensive and defensive players. This makes the Heat always overwhelmed by attacking and defending against top teams.
While I admire the Heat's focus on detail and the tenacity of their players to make it to the big roster, they have Dr. Thomas. Jekyll and Mr. Characteristics of Hyde (Dr. Hyde) Jekyll and Mr. Hyde is the protagonist of The Jekyll and Hyde by the British writer Stevenson, who later became synonymous with the "dual personality"). As mentioned above, the Heat can put a defensively suffocating lineup on the court, but they can also have a hard time scoring; they can also put a bunch of three-point shooters and mid-range shooters on the court, but it's also hard to stop opponents from scoring. I also don't believe they have enough players at their peak to bring the experience of regular season success to the playoffs. Lowry's addition can help Butler alleviate some of the pressure, but there's a reason the latter has to take on such a heavy responsibility, that is, no one else can stand up at a critical moment.
There are no teams that are unanimously optimistic
Brooklyn Nets
Five days ago, the Nets may have been unanimously favored as a championship contender, but Durant's knee ligament sprain and the early impact Irving had on the team as a part-time player have made people wonder if the Nets' three stars can still be on the floor at the same time this season. So far, since Irving announced his return, the Nets have been in a state of winning and losing, regardless of whether he can play or not. A scout at an Eastern European team said: "[As a part-time player] it is difficult for Irving to get into rhythm. ”
Playoff games often have a one-goal win-loss situation, and the Nets have three players who can complete the final shot;
The Nets are also the team with the highest free throw percentage in the league, another crucial factor in the playoffs;
Before the injury, Durant played at the level of MVP, shooting a high percentage that was completely unstoppable;
The Nets are also the best three-point defense team in the league, limiting the opponent's average three-point shooting rate to 32%.
Lack of a center forward who is both offensive and defensive. The only big men in the squad were Aldridge, Griffin, Millsap and Clarkston;
Over-reliance on stars. Harden and Durant are both in the top five leagues in terms of playing time per game.
While I think the Nets are still a dangerous team if they go all out, they still have to get past the Bucks if they want to break out of the East. The Nets don't have a player in the Nets who can single-handedly defend the alphabet brother, and can only take the bag clip, but as mentioned above, the passing level of the alphabet brother has gone up a step. Is it possible for the Nets to win in the Eastern Conference Finals? The answer is yes, but it's still one step away from winning the title.
Utah
The Jazz's offensive efficiency is the first in the league, the defensive efficiency is also in the league's top ten, and there are three best defensive players in the team, Gobert, which is difficult not to put them in the discussion of championship contenders. But scouts at a team in the East don't think so. 'They don't have enough depth in the squad and I don't know how they can increase it. "The players they want to trade can't get back multiple players who can increase the depth of their squad," he said. ”
The Jazz's three starting players — Conley, O'Neal and Bogdanovic — all shot more than 39 percent from three points;
Mitchell is a playoff scorer who has proven himself, averaging around 32 points per game in his past two rounds of playoffs;
The Jazz have the second highest rebounding percentage in the league.
Lack of athletically capable outside defenders, which makes it difficult for them to defend flankers who can dribble attacks;
The organizers are limited and rely too heavily on three-pointers. Although their scoring ability is among the best in the league, they can only rank 25th in the league in assists;
Mitchell's shooting choices. He shoots just 33 percent from three-point range, but still has to shoot an average of 10 three-pointers per game.
Overall: I don't think Mitchell is good enough to lead the team to the championship. He's not yet a good organizer and mid-range shooter, and he's not enough to be a scoring catalyst for a championship team. Yet this is the role that Jazz has given him unreservedly. So, I suspect, that's part of the reason he's happy to stay in Salt Lake City.
Los Angeles Lakers
Despite the Lakers' poor record and rumors that their coach may be out of class, james alone, or out of respect for him, some executives and scouts will still choose to see the Lakers as one of the strong contenders for the championship. A second scout from an Eastern European team said: "Their team is a mess, but I still don't lose hope in them completely. The scouts of the first eastern team agreed. He said: "You can't exclude any team with James from the championship race. The Lakers have enough star players. James can control the game. We all know what the scale of penalties is in the playoffs, which is not the same as the regular season. They may not be as strong as they used to be, but what I'm sure is that I'm not going to exclude them from the ranks of championship contenders. ”
James' scoring ability has remained at the same level as he has been for nearly a decade, and most of his shots this season have come from the middle and long range, nearly half of which have come from outside 16 feet;
Although the Lakers' "aging" level has made the team breathless during the regular season, these players make people look slow, but in the stressful playoffs, "old" players have become a precious asset. After all, James, Westbrook, Anthony, and Howard have as much playoff experience as anyone else.
The Lakers have a lot of poor defensive players, including James at the end of his career, whose defensive ability has also declined;
The Lakers rank fifth in the league in the number of mistakes and twelfth in the league in assists, and this assist-to-turnover ratio is really not on the table;
Did we just mention that Lakers head coach Vogel may go to class one day, but have the Lakers already found a better candidate to replace him?
The reluctance to exclude James' team from the championship contender discussion reminds me of the same mentality of the Spurs at the time, as they had long won one opponent after another in the playoff series. But while they had a regular season record of 50 wins and 60 wins in those seasons, they were all held out of the Finals when they got into the playoffs. I think we're at that stage right now, but it's about James' team. He reached the Finals for eight consecutive years in Miami and Cleveland, winning the championship three times. And what about the past three years? One championship, one playoff round, one lotto tour. The change of fate is not a mirage, and this season there is no sign that James can lead the Lakers back to their glory days.
Nominated teams
Philadelphia 76ers
One general manager has listed the 76ers as a strong contender for the championship because Embiid is doing well and the 76ers may be able to trade Simmons for an influential player. The general manager said: "I don't know what happened in Philadelphia, but they're really good because Embiid is really dominant. ”
Denver
Similar to the situation with the 76ers, Jokic is still showing his dominance, and Jamal Murray has a slight chance of returning from injury this season, and the pair's "combination punch" has allowed a scout to "leave the lights" for the Nuggets. "I can't exclude the Nuggets." The scout said, "But only when Murray returns will they have the potential to go further in the playoffs." Otherwise, they'll have to win the first round of the playoffs at most, and that's it. ”
By Ric Bucher
Compilation: Can't hold the basket at all