The NBA seems to have returned overnight to that era of warring states strife, with the Green Army, the Suns, the Warriors, the Bucks, Philadelphia, and it seems that every team has a chance to win a championship. But when people talk about championship teams, the Miami Heat always seem to be in a neglected position.
Many people may have forgotten that just two years ago, the Heat led by Jimmy Butler, in the case of many people's disappointment, all the way to the finals. After one of the shortest offseasons in history last season, Miami suffered a crushing loss in the playoffs. However, the Heat did not sink like the Lakers. After a series of operations last summer, the Heat won the first place in the Regular Season in the East this year, the fifth game of the playoffs, and the news of Butler's absence due to injury suddenly came out before the game, but even so, the super lineup depth, the Heat still easily advanced 4-1.
Core absence The Heat still win
If you want to choose the key words for the first round of this year's playoffs, injuries must be one of them. Devin Booker fell, the sun with the best record in the league, the first four games were forced to 2-2 by the Pelicans, and many fans who watched the hilarity were already expecting the black eight miracle.
However, compared to the absence of Booker, Middleton, Zach Lavin and others, on the surface, the Heat may be more tragic. In the fifth game of the series, Jimmy Butler was absent due to an inflammation in his right knee, Lowry could not play because of a left hamstring injury, and two of the three highest paid people in the team could not play, which was left on other teams, which may be a sudden collapse.
So far in this year's playoffs, Jimmy Butler has averaged 30.5 points, 7.8 rebounds, 5.3 assists and 2.8 steals per game, shooting 54.3 percent from the field, and Redick has called him the strongest star in the playoffs so far this year.
Although Lowry has declined in form this season, as the team's organizational defender, he still plays an important role on both ends of the offensive and defensive ends. How important are Butler and Lowry to the Heat? ESPN data shows that in this year's playoffs, the two stars accounted for 51% of the team's points and assists, which is basically half of the country.
For Jimmy Butler's absence from Game 5, many people's first reaction is sudden, and even you will think that the Heat are not doing a break for Butler in the playoffs. Over the past few days, Butler has played poker, cupping and personal trainers, without delay, and even coach Spollstra, speaking about Butler's injury, said, "The team is not clear what caused the pain in his knee. ”
Half of the country is gone, but today's game, the Heat from the beginning to the end you can not see the slightest panic. An important reason for this is of course Adebayor, who had 20 points, 11 rebounds and 4 assists on 7-of-11 shooting today's game, and although the number of shots was not much, Adebayor had the upper hand in the opposition whether it was against Okongu, Capela or Collins.
However, compared to the star's single point offensive advantage, Adebayo's contribution to the team on the defensive end may be more important, and when there are 4 minutes and 46 seconds left in the third quarter of the game, Adebayo misaligned the defense of Trae Young, who can think that the final result is that Yang Shaoxia's kicking mistake. And this round can be said to be a microcosm of the heat of the entire series for Yang Shaoxia's defense.
Defensive wins Miami is outstanding in depth
From the mayor of Atlanta, to the mayor of New York, to the mayor of Cleveland, to the end of this year's regular season to the playoffs, the Eagles' number one star Trae Young can be said to shine. But in this series with the Heat, Yang Shaoxia may have some doubts about life.
In the first four games of the series, Trae Young averaged 36.3 minutes per game, can get 16.5 points, even worse than teammate DeAndre Hunter, offensive efficiency, Yang Shaoxia is even more miserable, shooting only 35.1%, shooting only 21.2% from three-point range.
And today's game, Trae Yang shot 1 of 6 in the first quarter, 3 shots of 0 from three-pointers, and in the entire second quarter of the game, Yang Shaoxia only got 1 shot, but finally only got 1 point, 1 rebound and 1 assist embarrassing data. In the whole game, Trae Young shot 2 of 12 and only had 11 points, 8 rebounds and 6 assists, and after this series, you may see more and more Trae Young's argument that he is inferior to Doncic.
As you might not imagine, the best player to defend Trae Young in this series is not Lowry or Jimmy Butler, but the unknown Vincent, who is the player who has been staring at Trae the most time in the heat, during which time Trey Young shot only 27.3%.
If only Vincent has a strong defensive point, Trae Young can of course dismantle the Heat defense by blocking and dismantling. But the Heat don't have the kind of big center that Zubac likes to see, and the two interior players Adebayo and PJ Tucker are excellent at moving, both are famous tough guys in the league, and they are full of hard work. In this series, when the two were misplaced to defend Trae Young, Yang Shaoxia's shooting target was below 40%.
That's the Heat's biggest advantage in the entire series, giving their opponents a sense of suffocation every round. During the regular season, the Heat are actually the league's top defensive team, their 100-round loss of only 108.4 points, second only to the Green Army, Warriors, Suns, and during the playoffs, their 100-round loss points further increased to 104 points, second only to the defending champion Bucks.
Defensively, it's hard to find the Heat's weak ring, and on the offensive end, this team can be described as a national soldier. During the regular season, the Heat's top three breakups were Butler's 21.4 points, Hero's 20.7 points and Adebayo's 19.1 points. During this period, the total number of players with positive plus-minus values reached 7, second only to the Warriors and Grizzlies, and the average number of players scoring more than 7 points per game reached 12.
During the playoffs, the Heat's positive plus-minus players also reached 7 players, and in the case of narrowing the rotation range and Jimmy Butler's continuous highlights, the Heat's average score of more than 7 points per game still reached 9. Unlike the Lakers' way of valuing fame and breaking the team's original team-building strategy, the Heat have been firmly defensive in the past few years, and the players signed should be more pragmatic.
Strus, Vincent, Kleib Martin, you may not have heard of these players before, but you know that Strus was the 2019 round draft, Vincent was the 2018 draft, and Klebe Martin signed a two-way contract last summer. And Oladipo, who started today in place of Butler and contributed 23 points, only signed a basic salary contract with the Heat last summer. In the second quarter of the game, the Heat played a 17-0 offensive wave to establish the victory, and during this time, Strus alone scored 10 points, and Oladipo fought for two consecutive steals.
How far can the Heat go through the first round
After all, it is the first place in the East in the regular season, and the Heat's passing of the Eagles is not a surprise to everyone. After qualifying, they will face the winner between Philadelphia and the Raptors, and their test will really begin from the second round of the series.
At present, Philadelphia leads 3-2 on aggregate, and still has a greater probability of promotion. During the regular season, facing Philadelphia, the two sides fought to a 2-2 draw. After the trade deadline, the two teams met twice, each winning the home game.
If facing Philadelphia, limiting Embiid will be key. However, in this regard, the Heat is also full of experience, during the regular season, Embiid faced Miami, averaging only 23.7 points per game, shooting only 42% from the field, and only 7.1% of the three-point crosshairs, all below his season average.
Harden, on the other hand, has played just one game against the Heat this season, scoring 14 points and shooting 33.3 percent from the field. Obviously, the Heat have no shortage of means to face philadelphia's two core scorers. Home advantage coupled with super defense, as long as Butler's injury is not too much of a problem, in the series in the face of the old master does not collapse, it is estimated that there are still many people optimistic about them.
At least in the predictions of the five thirty eight website, the Heat currently have a 51% probability of reaching the divisional finals, compared with 44% in Philadelphia. Of course, Philadelphia does have the possibility of a gutter capsizing and a 3-0 lead being reversed. If it is really against the Raptors, the Heat will indeed still have a greater possibility of promotion, but the strength of the Raptors, also can not be underestimated, during the regular season, the two teams played each other with a record of 2 wins and 2 losses, 4 games, the Heat only won a total of 2 points against the opponent.
For the Heat, if they make it to the divisional finals, they have to be treated as the Finals, because they may meet the winner between the Green Army and the Bucks. After watching the Nets and the Green Army's first-round series, you may have a new understanding of the Green Army's defensive strength, Tatum's current strength, and now the Green Army's Robert Williams is back, the lineup is complete.
After the trade deadline, the Green Army may be the hottest team in the league, during which time they are the league's first in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency. The 100-game goal difference reached a terrifying 13.7, and the second-placed Grizzlies only had 7.3 points. The Bucks are the defending champions, and if they can reach the division finals, Middleton may make a comeback, and the Bucks can be said to be the old rivals of the Heat, and both sides have played each other in the past two years of playoffs.
In the "five thirty eight" prediction, the Celtics have the highest probability of winning the championship this year, reaching 43%, the Bucks are second in the East with 8 percent, and the Heat are third among the Eastern Conference teams at 6 percent. But the reason why the series is called a series is because the two sides are always constantly adjusting the game.
Home field advantage, lineup depth, championship coach, the Heat have all the factors that impact the championship, whether they can rush out of the East, or even win the championship, then it is time to fight the stars.