Wen 丨 Hedgehog Commune, author 丨 Xinghui, editor 丨 garden director
On January 10, 2022, "Cloud Original God" was launched on the App Store public beta, bringing "cloud games" into the public eye again.
For more than a decade, countless resources have been invested in this area, and companies large and small have responded to the wind. Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Valve, Tencent... The race is getting more and more lively.
Today, the "cloud game" technology has finally waited for a touch of fish belly white on the horizon. The technology trends of the past are no longer far away, and the technological barriers have been overcome one by one. Forerunners such as Sony have accumulated a considerable number of user groups, and latecomers have also launched commercial platforms.
From cutting-edge concepts to mass products, what makes cloud gaming? Is it the future of the industry, or is it a conceptual trap?
Who does cloud gaming satisfy?
When players click on Cloud Protoshin on their mobile phones, it has been more than a decade since the name "Cloud Game" was officially proposed. Around 2010, Companies such as OnLive and GameString have released related products to define this advanced concept with a pioneering attitude.
The so-called "cloud game" refers to the game method based on cloud computing technology. The game runs on a remote server, transmits the rendered screen over the network to the user, and obtains instructions and interacts. Therefore, players do not need to download, install and other routine operations, do not need to consider the level of terminal configuration, as long as the network can get a good game experience - of course, this is ideally discussed.
It is this "ideal situation" that attracts ambitious companies to bet on it.
According to the "China Cloud Game Market Trend Report (2021)" jointly released by Tencent Research Institute and Newzoo, various business activities related to cloud games have increased significantly in 2020. The world's leading game and technology companies are actively polishing their products, adjusting their strategic positioning and business layout in this emerging field.
The big companies competing for the big shots are looking at the bright promise of the cloud gaming concept.
The China Cloud Gaming Market Trends Report (2021) predicts that from 2020 to 2023, the global market for cloud gaming will grow approximately 7.2 times to $5.135 billion. Among them, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of China's cloud game market revenue will reach 135%, and the market growth rate will be significantly higher than the global average growth rate of 101%, becoming one of the most potential cloud game pioneer markets.
From the perspective of the current application scenario, the problems that cloud games solve for users are very clear.
As a cloud game version of Mihayou's hit game "Original God", the main promotional selling point of "Cloud Original God" is: "Real-time cloud technology, so that you do not need to download the complete "Original God" package, you can also enjoy a high-quality, high-frame rate game experience." ”
Image source Miha Yunyou official website
On the one hand, the cloud game version can save the storage capacity of several G or even a dozen G for the original god players, and skip the download and installation time. On the other hand, "Cloud Original God" allows players with low mobile phone configuration to experience higher picture quality than when downloading and playing, and see scenery that has never been seen before - "There are so many trees on the roadside..."
The ease of cloud gaming meets the needs of players for "click-to-run" and reduces the memory load. The lowered performance threshold corresponds to another vision, that is, to improve the use value of low-performance terminals, so that the "mobile experience AAA masterpiece" has a more specific implementation plan.
For the entire gaming industry, cloud gaming can effectively promote the current multi-platform, cross-terminal development trend. At the same time, cloud gaming technology means an extremely low threshold for terminals. Imagine watching a gorgeous game CG and clicking on an ad to try it online without popping up links and installing packages like today...
Both the industry and users are looking forward to an era of cloud gaming. Despite the grand blueprint, to this day, the cloud gaming market is still in the stage of accumulating energy, and the real explosion period is still on the horizon.
Why can't cloud games catch fire?
Like all forward-looking concepts, cloud gaming has exciting application prospects, but it has also been accompanied by a long-term controversy of "pseudo-demand".
Players have a wonderful imagination of cloud games: one touch, silky opening, light and convenient... Older phones that are lagging behind the trend can also easily show the hair texture of the BOSS.
The reality is bone-like, and the real situation is more likely to be this: the quality of the first glance makes the brow wrinkle, and the delay in moving raises the blood pressure. You tap the screen lightly at the catapult, gradually suspecting that what you are turning on is actually the PPT.
If you want to play a game on the cloud, you must first see whether the cloud is reliable or not, and secondly, you have to see if you can catch up with the pace of the cloud.
Network technology has always been a difficult problem to restrain the development of cloud games. Compared to traditional online games, the multimedia streaming of cloud games consumes more bandwidth. The quality of the multimedia stream rendered by the game scene depends on the network communication bandwidth, and the higher the image quality, the higher the bandwidth resource consumed. Taking a 1080P 30fp HD cloud game as an example, the network bandwidth needs to reach 10Mbps to run stably and smoothly.
Not to mention that cloud games also draw a flatbread on the TV screen in your living room.
According to the "Cloud Game Key Technology Research Report (2020)" released by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology and the 5G Cloud Game Industry Alliance, with the expansion of application terminals to large-screen TVs, VR and other devices, the requirements for resolution and frame rate have gradually increased (4K/8K, 60fps/120fps), and the bit rate has also increased.
Preliminary estimates, 4K 60fps ultra-high-definition cloud game bitrate (H264 encoding) is about 60Mbps to 70Mbps, after considering the network jitter factor, at least 80Mbps network bandwidth is required to maintain stable and smooth operation.
Theoretically, the downstream bandwidth of large-scale commercial TDD-LTE and FDD-LTE 4G services is 100~150Mbit/s. However, in actual operation, the 4G dedicated downstream bandwidth provided by a single base station will be reduced to about 80Mbit/s, and then shared by the terminal accessing the base station, and the bandwidth of the user's actual experience is lower, so it is inevitable to feel pressure when running cloud games.
At the same time, the nature of cloud gaming technology determines its strict requirements for latency. Players will find that the operational response latency of cloud games is much more pronounced than in local games. In certain game categories, such as first-person shooters, racing, etc., the negative feedback caused by delays is a huge pain point. In addition, network jitter will also cause uneven frame spacing in the game screen, and the result is that the game screen is not smooth in the player's perception.
The development of communication technology is not achieved overnight, and the network bandwidth and stability in the 4G era are limited, which has become an innate limitation of cloud gaming. In the historical process of technological evolution, early cloud gaming platforms such as Onlive eventually lost due to real pressures, and they either withered away or became the food on the plate of giants.
Image source Onlive official website
Even in the 5G era, mature cloud gaming experiences are rare, and player complaints are everywhere. The moments of team battle and the melancholy convulsions and jump frames will undoubtedly dissuade the players who are not new to the curtain.
Cloud games, which claim to lower the threshold, actually have strict requirements for use. This misplaced experience is a key reason why cloud gaming cannot be implemented at scale.
Another big problem is the game content itself.
In the past, most of the cloud games were ported as the main means, and the optimization level was uneven, which was generally difficult to meet user expectations, and it was also accompanied by account security risks. For manufacturers, porting games comes with copyright risks. In user perception, the level of optimization of the official cloud game version generally outperforms third-party services.
While more and more game companies are realizing the value of cloud-native games, the level of investment is greater and the barrier to entry is higher. "Cloud Andrass" is a vivid example. In order to send "Original God" to the clouds, Miha You has invested in the Wei Ling Era many times. With the support of this cloud gaming full case service provider, we have obtained the current solid technical solution.
There are not many players who have the courage to enter the deep water zone. Cloud game services under the path of globalization are saddled with high computing power requirements and huge server costs, and the required cloud computing technology accumulation cannot be achieved quickly, which can be called a bottomless pit of resources.
Among them, the decision-making cost is large and the amount of supporting investment is difficult for small manufacturers to reach. Under the dual screening of content and cost, Tencent and NetEase, which hold a large number of head products, have more capital to build a native platform for their own "pro-sons".
Image source Tencent START official website
"Light" cloud games are actually a heavy asset.
A further dilemma is that even as native content and technology solutions continue to advance, the business model of cloud gaming still has to put a question mark.
How do cloud games make money?
In terms of content, cloud gaming is an online interactive streaming medium – users pay for long content, but they are more interactive than the "Aiyou Tengmang".
Today, streaming is nothing new, but that doesn't mean its business model has matured to the point where it's flawless. For example, long video platforms continue to encounter difficulties, and the "money path" of streaming content ecology in China has also been examined and discussed again and again.
Cloud gaming looks so different from long-form video platforms, but it's also impossible to escape the problem of payment. The challenges facing streaming content are similar, not just in terms of technical bottlenecks, content copyright, but also of the business model that needs to be validated, and the mindset of the user to be cultivated.
At present, both Tencent and NetEase tend to adopt a platform membership system. Tencent Start cloud game platform has set up a number of paid stalls, priced at 29 yuan per month and 251 yuan per year. NetEase's cloud gaming platform also uses a similar charging mechanism to launch a weekly, monthly and seasonal card for mobile game members. The recently open beta of "Cloud Yuanshen", its play price is 2 yuan / hour, and the "30-day play card" with a price of 60 yuan is launched at the same time.
Image source NetEase cloud game official website
In general, the mainstream of domestic cloud gaming services is the membership system, similar to major video websites.
The situation is different in the host realm. Sony's PS NOW cloud gaming service has been available since 2014 and is priced at $9.99 per month. At the end of last year, according to foreign media Technology, Sony plans to merge PlayStation Plus members with PS Now into one service to improve product competitiveness.
Sony's move is surprisingly consistent with old rival Microsoft. When Microsoft launched cloud games in September 2020, it chose to put related services into the original Xbox Game Pass Ultimate subscription benefit package, which is equivalent to providing additional cloud game functions for members, and the pace of commercial exploration is particularly cautious.
Microsoft Xbox Cloud Gaming Service promotional image
For domestic platforms, the "big member" model of such related game consoles is obviously not mainstream. But the choices of overseas companies are still worth learning. Even in the more developed gaming market, the competitiveness of cloud gaming as a separate paying point is worth scrutinizing.
Common paid projects in the domestic game market have undergone long-term polishing, including props, appearances, DLC, passes, etc., all of which have rich practical experience. Cloud gaming is a late-up necessity and is still seen by many players as an "extra" expense because it does not directly affect the content of the game.
The sense of urgency brought by the memory of the mobile phone is not enough to support the desire of the player's main force to spend money. The paid behavior represents a certain degree of strong demand, but core players with strong demand often do not care about the cost of downloading the game, after all, the experience is more familiar and stable.
Comparing the paid content of members of long video platforms horizontally, there is no alternative channel for genuine film and television works, but cloud games are different, it itself appears as a "substitute", and it is difficult to snatch users from the hands of "free" client games.
In this case, the one-step membership system is even more suspicious. It may be a trade-off under cost pressure, but it's not very effective in nurturing users. Although manufacturers spare no effort to give away free time, it is difficult to break out of the bad cycle of user loss.
In addition to the player's side, the commercialization strategy will also disturb the content copyright owners.
On the one hand, for some game manufacturers, cloud games have the commercial risk of diverting channel users. In the case of technical intervention, the revenue distribution method has not yet formed a standardized industry consensus.
On the other hand, differences in the content of the game itself lead to very different modes of cooperation. For example, assuming that a cloud gaming platform adopts a business model for time-based billing, it is clear that short-process games will have a hard time accepting the deal. Also paying 4 yuan in 2 hours, the heavy MOBA may only be a long-term four or five games, but the narrative single-player game may have completed a lot of plot.
Players of large-scale MMO online games such as "Against the Cold Water" and "Sword Net 3" may not be sensitive to time billing. But if someone wants to spend only 4 yuan to experience the two-hour story of "Eddie Finch's Memory", fans may be the first to not agree. If cloud gaming service providers want to enter a more diversified game market, they are bound to subdivide the business mechanism.
In addition, cloud games that do not require download also invisibly challenge the important position of channels in game distribution.
In the field of cloud gaming alone, Apple has always held a relatively conservative attitude. As a technology giant holding the App Store, Apple has not yet relaxed its access control over cloud games from various manufacturers.
Previously, Apple once did not allow the cloud gaming services of Google, Microsoft, Nvidia and other companies to be used in the iOS environment on the grounds of security issues. Later, although Apple relaxed its policy adjustments, it still had quite strict restrictions on such services and continued the app store sharing rule.
Terms and Conditions of the App Store
The vigilance and contraction of channels may bring more variables to the future of cloud gaming. Between the technical shackles, content dilemmas, and business myths, no one can give a definitive answer.
Before cloud games can really take off, there will be a long running period.