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Hitler's fate of defeat was unstoppable

author:Beiqing Net
Hitler's fate of defeat was unstoppable

William Schayler

Hitler's fate of defeat was unstoppable
Hitler's fate of defeat was unstoppable

Hindenburg and Hitler

Theme: The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich: A History of Nazi Germany Revision and Republishment Sharing Session

Time: 13:00-14:00, August 16, 2020

Address: Shanghai Exhibition Center (East Hall 1)

Guest: Zhang Mingyang Writer, historian

Wei Zhou author, book reviewer

Moderator: Jing Wenhan, Editor of Yilin Publishing House

The most suitable book in "The Complete History of Nazis for the Masses"

Host: This year marks the 75th anniversary of the victory of the world anti-fascist war, and Yilin Publishing House has revised and republished William Scheyler's classic work The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich: A History of Nazi Germany. Today, I have the honor to invite two teachers, Zhang Mingyang and Wei Zhou, what is the first feeling and experience of reading this book?

Wei Zhou: This book is indeed a classic, published in 1960, sold tens of millions of copies around the world in 60 years, and has long been at the top of the Us bestseller list. It is still listed as the most suitable book in the "Complete History of Nazis for the Masses".

Perhaps in the eyes of modern historians, this book is a bit in-depth. But it is valuable that the author is a witness to this history - when history happened, he was on the scene, he was in Nazi Germany, and even interviewed the dignitaries of the Third Reich, so it has historical value. In addition, his language is more vivid and easy to understand, so it can be popular for such a long time.

Including the "History of the Third Reich" that I saw a while ago by Professor Zheng Yinda in China, it can be regarded as a collection of domestic research on the Third Reich. The recommendation for the book is also to "subvert the narrative of the history of the rise and fall of the past", so the book is viewed as a benchmark for the narrative of the Third Reich.

Zhang Mingyang: The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich is a book that cannot be bypassed when studying World War II and Nazi Germany. Other writings may criticize it and question it, but it must be mentioned. In addition to the historical materials, the writing of this book has a lot of observations based on personal experience, a strong sense of presence, and is very readable. So it and a book written by an ordinary historian decades later have different values. It's a better way to use it as a starting point, an introductory book, and then read other books.

Wei Zhou: The Third Reich was the most deeply studied empire ever. The last time I saw a statistic, about the Books of the Third Reich, there were about twenty thousand statistics in the world. That is to say, all the time of a person's life is spent reading books about it, and it is impossible to read them. Each corner and corner has been studied.

But in any case, one of the biggest mysteries for the average reader about this history remains, how did an empire that now seems so evil and unprecedented in human history arise? Why is it supported? How can it decay when it looks invincible?

Zhang Mingyang: I think the rise of the Third Reich is more dramatic than the decline. Its demise is largely a military manifestation, such as the capture of Berlin, hitler suicide, the Third Reich suddenly collapsed, you can not see a lot of so-called underground resistance, resurrection, this phenomenon is relatively rare.

The phenomenon of the Third Reich, which "rises and falls, and dies suddenly," is very worthy of in-depth discussion. From 1933 to 1945, these 12 years have experienced the ups and downs of a country. If you put Hitler's own career in it, you will find it very dramatic.

"Make Germany Greater" is an attractive promise

The twelve years of the Third Reich, in short, are divided into two parts: the coming to power on January 30, 1933, to the raid on Poland on September 1, 1939, which was the first six and a half years; the next six years were until April 30, 1945. Roughly speaking, the first six years were basically smooth; the next two were divided into two parts, the Battle of Stalingrad in January 1942 was a turning point, the next three years went downhill, and soon, within three years, they were completely defeated.

The first six years have focused on how it arose. One of the big mysteries we often talk about is how such a country is supported.

Zhang Mingyang: Over the years, when discussing the Third Reich on the Internet in China, one of the questions that I like to dwell on is whether Hitler came to power by democratic elections. In 1932 he held only 30 percent of the public opinion, so many say he didn't come to power on democracy. There is a lot of controversy about this point, so let's not take sides.

But what is certain is that the first wave captured much of the public opinion as he returned to power at a pace that quickly brought about full employment for 7 million unemployed workers. These 7 million people have basically become his hardcore ticket warehouse in the future. Although there was no form of election after that, what would happen to him if there were democratic elections? The operation of the unbeaten soldier before 1933 really met the expectations of the Germans.

William Cheyler, author of The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich, was in Berlin at the time, and there is a great deal of writing about how the Germans reacted to Hitler's rise to power and how they viewed it. I've read a lot of books, and my overall feeling is that Germany wasn't Nazi ideology at the time. There is also a great deal of research that argues that the Nazi Party didn't really have an ideology in the strict sense of the word, it was a hodgepodge.

The main reason why the Germans elected it at that time was not so much because they liked the party, but because they were dissatisfied with their original status quo. There were many grievances, including the repression of the Treaty of Versailles. Germany was going through a very chaotic, divisive, painful time. Everyone is eager to put an end to this divisive chaos and to have a unified situation. As for who comes to power and by what means this split is used, they don't care.

Then they could also choose other parties, why did they choose the Nazis? Because at the time, the Nazis showed a particularly resolute idea. Although Hitler's later behavior was particularly strange, he was very politically sophisticated at the time. He made compromises with the different forces, promised not to break the status quo too quickly, and made a little promise to different classes. His promise at the time was to "make Germany greater", and the German idea was that since it was already so bad, it would be better to see what would happen if it was done by another person.

Hitler did come to power in a short period of time, through some very resolute means (also at a great cost, but people at the time felt that this price was bearable), to end the original dispute, chaos, unemployment was reduced, and the situation in all aspects became better.

The early successes made the Germans hallucinate Hitler himself

Wei Zhou: A lot of investigations at that time and interviews afterwards proved that many people always thought that it was quite beautiful at that time, compared with before (of course, this beauty must be harmful). Because the situation of the Germans at that time was too painful, Hitler was indeed unbelievable in the first few years, such as building highways in a short period of time to ensure the travel of ordinary people; ensuring employment rates; some ideas can be said to be ahead of their time, such as the annexation of Czechoslovakia, etc. At that time, the opposition was that it was too risky and risky. But if Hitler could help them do it without risk, they liked it. So that's the problem.

Zhang Mingyang: Brother Wei Zhou means that it is a bit like a husband and wife, the husband has to gamble, the wife feels that the risk is very large, can not be like this. But the husband went to the gambling table once and made dozens of percent, and the wife was actually happy at this time. At that time, Germany was this mentality, afraid of losing the bet, and the result of winning the bet was very happy.

So in a way, what Hitler did before the war in 1939 was actually "punching in the face" again and again — some people slammed him as an inexperienced nationalist, unable to solve the problem of the economy and unemployment, etc., and punched these voices in the face, and did not approve of his public opinion before harvesting.

In the process, he will also inflate himself, and the disadvantage is that he will slowly eliminate the voices against him. There will certainly be violent, military acts in this process, but it is also largely due to his political achievements. So later some of his crazy behavior became more and more unchecked. For example, the American film "The Sound of Music" created an image of an Austrian who opposed Hitler, and such a person would certainly exist, but the mainstream public opinion in Austria at that time actually hoped that the German nation could be unified.

Wei Zhou: Some of the measures taken by Hitler in the early days are indeed very risky now. But the reason why he was successful at that time was also because he went with the flow. After the defeat of Germany in 1918, the public opinion of the whole of Germany was under great pressure, and under the pressure of the rebound. Some parties on the left at the time considered the Treaty of Versailles to be unequal and unjust. For example, mainstream public opinion in Austria was in favor of German unification, because Austria-Hungary was once the largest empire, and Austria was too small to survive alone. At that time, the Treaty of Versailles had a clause prohibiting austria and germany from merging. 97% of Germans also approved of Hitler, although this act was contrary to the treaty.

If we look at it now, it is to go with the flow, and there is a public opinion base in it, so the support area is particularly large. Although the approach was particularly rude, there were people who supported him. When it was introduced, there was little way for everyone to oppose him. The successful result made him hallucinate about himself, and the Germans believed in his ability. In fact, Hitler only had a junior high school education, and his education was not high, but after he succeeded, you would feel as if this person had an aura on his head.

Later, after his successful invasion of Czechoslovakia and France, all the generals did not dare to oppose him, because they found that in the end Hitler's judgment was indeed correct. For example, at the beginning of the invasion of France, all the generals were opposed, including now someone using a computer to simulate several times, and the result was that the German army failed. But Hitler took a very risky approach, achieving a very small probability of almost impossible success, which you cannot explain with reason. So later all opposition disappeared, and the voices and mechanisms that had been opposed to him in Germany were slowly eliminated.

Hitler's personality and worldview were very extreme

Host: As the two teachers just said, Hitler was, at least in the early days of his reign, a relatively successful Führer. But as the saying goes, nine bets and one loss, he can't be so lucky forever. With the reversal of the situation in World War II, the Third Reich went into decline. I would now like to ask the two teachers to share some views on the decline of Nazi Germany.

Zhang Mingyang: Actually, I think there are still many things between rise and fall. For example, if he had started staging on September 1, 1939, his heart would have been even greater at the beginning of the war. Although we see in hindsight that the war itself was the beginning of his demise, his military gamble was indeed very powerful. The First World War fought France, from 1914 to 1918 for four years without fighting, who would have thought that the Second World War took only 6 weeks to take France, it can be said that it is a goal that cannot be achieved under any circumstances.

On the surface, Germany has no advantage, and some people even say that Hitler is very strong on the outside and has long been prepared to commit suicide in the basement. Every time he had the psychological expectation of failure, but he still gambled, and after success, his chips became bigger and bigger. The German Army was disobedient to him from the beginning to the end, but he was punched in the face again and again. It can be said that Hitler has a lot of "magical" things, just like Jobs once proposed the "reality distortion force field", Hitler's approach is contrary to reality, but he said "I am so, what do you do with me", it is actually correct. In the first half of his demise, Hitler still showed a strong side, which was not a quick rout.

Wei Zhou: Some people asked: If Hitler had accepted it when he saw it and Nazi Germany had become normalized, would he have perished? Or will Germany become a normal country? Although he now seems very evil, his rapid demise is in line with our need for justice and our inner yearning. But is this really inevitable?

It's actually hard to tell. For example, there were three fascist countries in Europe at that time, and in addition to Germany, there was italy and Spain. Franco of Spain, after he took Spain, he did not attack the outside world, including during World War II he remained neutral, as a result Franco remained in power until his death in 1975, and finally he returned power to the King of Spain. So is it possible that Hitler's Nazi Germany would have taken such a path? In retrospect, this hypothesis may exist.

But if you know a little more about Hitler and Nazi Germany, you will find that this is unlikely. Why? Because his personality is a very extreme person, he will not accept it when he sees it, but will only increase the chips and do it again. Goering had advised him not to put all his chips on the table and leave a little retreat. But Hitler said at the time, I put all my chips on the table every time. His worldview is extreme, believing that there is a brutal struggle between each race, and that either you die or I die.

So his logic is self-consistent, he believes that the strong naturally dominate the weak, and if Germany fails in the process, then there is no need for it to exist in this world. So his idea was that if he didn't win, he would be completely destroyed. So he won't compromise, he won't surrender. If he had brought down the Soviet Union at that time, he would not have stopped, and would have continued to attack the United States and dominate the whole world.

By the later stages, self-destructive behavioral tendencies of taking 28 drugs a day

Zhang Mingyang: There is also a variable in his gambler mentality, that is, no one in Germany stops him, and many people think that as long as he lives, he will not give up. Many historians imagine how his historical evaluation would change if he suddenly fell ill and died in the process. I remember in another book, Reading Hitler, which I recall, a historian who envisioned that if Hitler had died in 1939, he might have become the most popular German in history.

Wei Zhou: This is indeed possible. It can be said that his personality dominated the development of Germany at that time. Why can he alone dominate the whole country? The development of Germany was decided by the Führer alone. In this case, his personal choices have a huge impact on the direction of the whole country. So that's hard to say.

When he came to power, the Germans felt like the country was a broken car that could no longer drive, but after Hitler came up, the car regained its power. But slowly you find that the car is driving faster than the original, driving faster and faster, you already feel a little dangerous, but there is no brake, it is too late, it can't stop.

One of the more paradoxical things here is that the factors that caused Hitler's success earlier were the factors that caused his later failures. Such success can only be possible if the situation is relatively smooth. And the more later, the more it goes against the trend, and neither external nor internal forces can support it. But nothing could stop him, except defeat. He was always taking drugs until later, taking 28 drugs a day, stimulants, like drug use. Getting deeper and deeper is a tendency to self-destructive behavior.

Zhang Mingyang: During the drive, the brakes broke, so there was no other result except the destruction of the car and the death of people. Therefore, the fate of his defeat is also unstoppable and absolutely inevitable. In fact, he himself was not so interested in the rise and fall, because he was neither a patriot nor a nationalist, he was a racist. He fought the Second World War for two purposes, the first being to prove that the German nation was the greatest nation in the world and had the right to rule the world. If he fails, he will die, and then let people destroy the whole nation, because if it is defeated, it is not the greatest nation in the world, there is no need to exist. His mentality is very pathological. For example, if he had not driven the Jews away, the atomic bomb might have been invented by Germany.

Wei Zhou: He is irrational, his way is intuitive. People around him also said that his work habits were very special, day and night upside down. He is a sensitive, intuitive judgment, pursuing the absolute, not the relative. So it won't be good to receive.

An absolute, outright tendency to go to extremes, which is a factor in his success and a factor in his failure. You could say that his success sowed the seeds of later failure. He spared no effort. He preferred novel, adventurous schemes, such as the Sickle Project. He also loves drag racing, racing around Berlin at a very fast pace when depressed. He also loves innovative things, and he was the first leader to fly everywhere to give a speech. He prefers the most innovative and trendy technology and makes it his mission. The absence of power to restrain him is also due to his beliefs, such as his belief that the state is only a tool for him to achieve his racial goals, and that if it cannot be achieved, the state does not have to exist. He also believed that the Nazis were not a political party, just a movement that kept moving forward. But the problem is that the movement will certainly one day encounter obstacles and have to stop, and by that day the whole system will collapse particularly quickly.

It is contrary to heavenly reason that Germany's national strength at that time should not be destroyed

Zhang Mingyang: I think we are talking about the rise and fall of the Third Reich, including German fascism and Italian fascism, that is, when reading this book, we should not preconceived that there is something wrong with Hitler or whose military command is wrong. A little research shows that this is not a military problem. It was an accident that the national strength of Nazi Germany and Japan at that time could be beaten like this. As I said just now, he is a self-destructive process, and how to fight is a failure. Although World War II was a war, the core was that it was a war that could not be won. In terms of economic data and national strength, the Third Reich is at an absolute disadvantage, and it is impossible to win by any conqueror. Although Germany eventually fell militarily, it was definitely not a military issue. In such a comparison of national strength, he could never achieve victory.

Wei Zhou: There is a problem involved in this, and when I look at this history, I have a deep feeling, that is, no matter what, no matter how strong and excellent a country and race are, you have to admit that the resources of this country and nation are limited. But Hitler did not recognize this finiteness, which he considered to be infinite. We will see many similar stories in other places, a young man with limited ability itself, after achieving a goal, his appetite is getting bigger and bigger, but people's energy and resources are always limited, but their desires are unlimited. When you don't know to stop, you will one day be self-destructive. With Germany's national strength at that time, it was against heaven and impossible not to destroy.

Zhang Mingyang: I followed Brother Wei Zhou's words that there were three fascist countries at that time, of which Italy's sense of existence in World War II was relatively low, and its role was relatively small, so it was punished relatively little after defeat. In the process of gambling, it participates the least and finally loses the least. That's still interesting. I want to hear about the comparison between these three countries.

Wei Zhou: Judging from the situation at that time, the Italians would feel that fascism was just lip service, and it was completely possible to say one thing and do one thing in life, but Germany did not change it. Until its defeat in July 1943, Italy did not expel Jews.

The particular irony is that Italy sent troops to occupy eight southern French provinces, and at that time France was still very strong in expelling Jews, and as a result, after the Italian occupation, we said that we should be more humane and begin to protect these Jews. The French finally asked the Germans if they could help deal with the Jews. Italians are very pragmatic, and he thinks the Jews are useful. Perhaps from the italian point of view, it is unbelievable to think that the Germans are really so serious. So later Italy was half-convinced. Later, when the Americans came, Italy quickly surrendered. When they see that the general trend has gone, they will not resist to the end and will leave themselves a way out. But from top to bottom, it is easy to go to extremes, and do not leave yourself a way out. So Hitler would feel that he had finally exhausted all his strength and would willingly commit suicide.

If there had been no anti-Semitism, no concentration camps would have been set up

Zhang Mingyang: I think another interesting thing about Italians is that, in fact, to some extent, Mussolini was actually Hitler's mentor. He invented the concept of fascism, and Hitler admired him for a long time. Hitler also saved him. So although Italy did not help them substantially in the war and put forward various conditions, Hitler was very tolerant of them. Such a country has actually taken advantage of history and has not been punished much. Italy was a loser. When discussing the Third Reich, Italy is a good mirror image.

Finally, I would like to ask Brother Wei Zhou a more popular question: How do you think Germany's evaluation in World War II would be different from the present if there had been no anti-Semitism and no concentration camps?

Wei Zhou: This estimate will have a different evaluation, and indeed anti-Semitism is an unforgivable crime. I also went to the concentration camp when I went to Munich before, and you will be really shocked when you go to see it. This place will make you feel how human beings can be in such a situation. This place killed millions of people, and in addition to the Jews, there were many social outliers, homosexuals, unemployed vagrants. Because he thought these people were useless, he thought that killing these people would strengthen his own race. This is one of the most unforgivable sins.

But the crime was only established in the 1960s. No previous act of the Holocaust had been taken too seriously. Times and circumstances have changed, but without the Holocaust, his crimes would still be tried. Why? For example, after World War II, there was a commander in Japan whose troops killed many civilians in the Philippines, and after the war, the Us military court tried him to death and hanged him. What was considered unprecedented at the time opened up a new regulation of international law, namely the trial of war criminals. The legalization of war crimes was a completely new change after World War II. So even if there were no Holocaust and concentration camp crimes, his crimes during the war and the persecution of the Jewish people alone would have been enough to characterize his crimes, perhaps only not as serious as they are now.

Finishing/Rain Station

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