The number of one-child births in China has dropped sharply, and the number of second-child births last year has been lower than in 2013

Under the influence of many factors such as the decline in women of childbearing age, the decline in fertility willingness, and the epidemic, the number and birth rate of the mainland birth population continue to decline. Among them, what are the changes in the number of first and second children born?

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 17th, the birth population of 10.62 million people in 2021, the proportion of second children rose from about 30% in 2013 to about 43% in 2021. According to this calculation, in 2021, the number of second-child births in mainland China will be about 4.57 million.

The overall two-child effect narrowed dramatically

According to the data released by the National Health Commission and the National Bureau of Statistics, the first financial reporter combed through the calculation of the number of one-child births and the number of second-child births in the calendar years since 2013 and found that although the proportion of second-child births in the 2021 population was 13 percentage points higher than that in 2013, from the absolute point of view, the number of second-child births in 2021 has been lower than that in 2013. However, compared with the second child, the number of one-child births has declined faster, although there is no relevant data on the number of one-child births in 2021, but from 2013 to 2020, the number of one-child births has dropped by 51%.

Table: Changes in the number of first and second child births since 2013 (unit: 10,000 people) (data source: first financial reporter based on public data calculations)

It should be noted that the data from 2013 to 2015 are the data of the former National Health and Family Planning Commission (now the National Health Commission), the data for 2016 and 2017 are the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, and the data for 2018-2020 are calculated based on the proportional data released by the National Health Commission. Data on some children in some years are not available. In addition, there will be some deviations between the data released in the current year and the data after subsequent revisions, but this deviation is small.

Dong Yuzhen, a population expert and president of the Guangdong Provincial Population Development Research Institute, analyzed the first financial and economic analysis, at present, the effect of comprehensive two-child narrowing is relatively fast, and the number of one-child births has declined significantly in recent years. Some recent surveys have also found that the proportion of young people who are relatively young and in the period of fertility boom only want to have one child and do not want to have a second child is more than 20%; even a small number of people have made it clear that they will not marry and have children. "These phenomena must arouse our great attention."

Dong Yuquan said that there are multiple factors in these phenomena. First, women of childbearing age are reduced by more than 3 million per year, allowing the number of people eligible to become mothers to decrease rapidly. Secondly, people's willingness to have children, especially those in the period of fertility, has obviously weakened, the motivation is insufficient, and many young people pay more attention to their own personality and free life, and are more willing to live alone and single, which has reduced the fertility level of the whole society. Third, many people who actually have the desire to have children, because of the economic pressure in life, it is difficult to effectively allocate time and energy, it is not easy to deal with the relationship between fertility and employment work and career development, etc., in reality, it affects the willingness to have children, reduce their own fertility behavior, and the result is naturally a decline in fertility levels.

One-child births in 2020 are down 51% from 2013

At the same time, it can be seen from the data that the decline in the number of births of one child is greater than that of the data of the second child and the number of births. 2020 is down 51% from 2013. The change in the number of births of one child is also related to the change in the number of births of two and three children in the future. Therefore, the change in the number of births of a child is very interesting.

At the first regular press conference of the National Health Commission in 2022 held on the morning of the 20th, Professor Song Jian, deputy director of the Population and Development Research Center of Chinese Min University, said that in recent years, the fertility rate in the mainland has also declined relatively rapidly, especially the decline in the total fertility rate of one child has offset the effect of the increase in the total fertility rate of the second child, which is the result of the low willingness to have children, the delay in the age of marriage and childbearing, and the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic.

In fact, changes in the data on first marriages play a decisive role in the number of births per child. According to the data of the "China Statistical Yearbook 2021", the first financial reporter combed and found that 2013 was the peak of the number of first marriages, reaching 23.8596 million. By 2020, the number of first-time marriages will be 12.286 million, down 48.5% in 7 years, nearly half.

The number of first-time marriages has fallen by nearly half, and in addition to the decline in the total number of marriageable people, there are other more prominent reasons. Dong Yuzhen said that with the increasing degree of popularization of education, people are educated for longer and longer, and the time to truly become an independent social person is greatly delayed. Marriage time and childbearing time are more than 5-8 years later than the legal age of marriage and the golden age of childbearing, compressing the birth time range of people who are mainly women.

According to data from the Ministry of Civil Affairs, in 2010, the proportion of marriage registration at all ages in the mainland accounted for 37.6% of the total population of marriages, and the age group of 20-24 years old was 37.6%, ranking first among all age groups. However, by 2013, the proportion of the 25-29 age group exceeded the proportion of the 20-24 age group for the first time, becoming the highest proportion of the age group. By 2020, the proportion of the 20-24 age group is only 18.6%, down 19 percentage points from 2010. In contrast, the 30-34 age group accounted for 19.3%, up 8 percentage points from 2010. Overall, the age of marriage for young people on the mainland is constantly being postponed.

Yang Jinrui, deputy director of the Department of Population and Family of the National Health Commission, said on the 20th that at present, the post-90s and post-00s as the new main body of marriage and childbearing, most of them grow and work in cities and towns, have a longer education period, face greater pressure on employment competition, and the phenomenon of marriage and childbearing delay is very prominent. Delayed marriage increases the likelihood that women will not marry for life, further inhibiting fertility levels.

In addition, the epidemic has also affected young people's marriage. Dong Yuzhen analyzed the first financial and economic analysis that the social activity restrictions brought about by the epidemic have affected the direct interaction between people and reduced the communication between men and women, up to love and marriage and childbearing activities.