The current situation in Europe is like hot water about to boil, and the key is whether it will "add firewood".
And China, which coincides with the great cold festival, is less than 2 weeks away from the Spring Festival, and all parts of the country are looking forward to the day of the upcoming reunion. Unfortunately, the world situation is turbulent, and Europe is even more turbulent.
On January 18, the United States, Russia, France and Ukraine each had an unusual news coming out.
Let's start with the United States. On the anniversary of his presidency, Biden "threatened" Putin again.
On the 19th local time, US President Joe Biden declared at the "first anniversary of administration" press conference that Sweden and Finland are worried about Russia's current actions and conveyed their concerns about the security situation in Europe to the United States.
In addition, Biden also emphasized two points: one is that Sweden and Finland have not expressed their willingness to "join NATO" for the time being; the other is that Russia does not want Sweden and Finland to change their current status.
Combined with NATO Secretary-General Tortenberg's previous statement: Sweden and Finland meet NATO's defense standards in many ways. As long as the Swedish and Finnish governments are willing, they can quickly join NATO.
It is not difficult to see that Biden is openly threatening Putin, which means that if Russia continues to behave "aggressively", then no one can guarantee that Sweden and Finland will not join NATO.
What do you think about that?
First, Biden is bluffing. Similar tricks, often played by the U.S. government, are both for Russia and for voters: the government is uniting European allies and continuing to put pressure on Russia.
Secondly, with regard to the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO, no matter what Biden and Tortenberg say, the possibility is basically zero in the current situation. On the map, Finland and Sweden are both neighbors of Russia, and if they join NATO, Russia will face a total blockade in Europe.
Ukraine's pursuit of NATO alone could stir up the situation in Europe, and Sweden and Finland, if they join NATO, would undoubtedly be "sounding the horn of war."
Third, a misconception must be corrected: the United States cannot represent NATO. Europe's willingness to cooperate with the United States will inevitably have common interests, and if Sweden and Finland want to join NATO, it is bound to make the situation in Europe "dangerous", and other NATO countries will never agree.
So Biden knows finland and Sweden won't join NATO, Europe knows it, and Russia knows it all the more. So why did Biden say it with such fanfare? In my opinion, the White House is almost "out of cards".
Next, let's talk about another NATO "big man" - France.
On the 19th, French President Emmanuel Macron delivered a speech in the European Parliament, once again expounding the policy position of France during the presidency of the Council of the European Union, reiterating that "the EU should achieve strategic autonomy".
This statement is actually a cliché. Especially after the Biden administration withdrew its troops from Afghanistan and the submarine trade between France and Australia was "cut off" by the United States, Macron has been emphasizing "EU strategic autonomy". One of the most important measures, of course, is to seek the formation of a "European Army".
Today, Macron reiterates this position again, in fact, there are 3 differences.
First, the background is different. France is both the "big brother" of the European Union and the head member of NATO, and it is of course surprising to make a "strategic autonomy" statement in the context of the tense situation between Russia, the United States and Europe.
It seems that France has more of a self-view on the "anti-Russian" matter and does not want to follow the "rhythm of the United States".
Second, identities are different. France is currently the rotating presidency of the European Union Council for a period of six months from 1 January this year. This means that France is entitled to propose some big policies and can host some meetings as a "host".
Therefore, France, which speaks more weightily, will actively promote the "EU strategic autonomy" approach in the next six months, thinking that it will produce more results.
Third, France is about to hold presidential elections this year. For Macron, firmly grasping the basic plan of the EU and showing greater achievements within the EU is of course conducive to the support of the polls.
In short, do not underestimate Macron's determination, after all, it is related to whether he can be re-elected smoothly.
Next, let's talk about Ukraine. Prepare to form a new army, the name of which means something.
On the 18th local time, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense released a message saying that Ukraine will form a territorial defense force of 150 battalions and a total of 25 brigades.
Although the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense did not elaborate on it, it can be seen from the name of the army that the formation of this force is inextricably linked to the recent situation on the Russian-Ukrainian border.
After all, with the deterioration of Russian-Ukrainian relations, coupled with the continuous "arch fire" of NATO led by the United States, Russia and Ukraine have deployed a large number of troops in the border areas, and the Russian side alone has tens of thousands of troops gathered and even transferred heavy weapons.
Obviously, the Ukrainian military has appeared to be insufficient, which has quickly formed a new force, which can not only enrich the strength of the army, but also convey the meaning of deterrence to the Russian side.
In addition to this, there are 3 key points that cannot be ignored.
First, Ukraine's action was swift, with more than 86 percent of troop site selection completed before the Ministry of Defense issued a briefing, on January 17.
Second, the number of this unit is quite large, each battalion has about 600 reserve members, and the entire force is 90,000 people. Once the training is completed, it is a living force that cannot be underestimated.
The third is that Ukraine will also receive light anti-tank weapons with British assistance on the 18th. Whether this newly formed territorial defense force will deploy these weapons is also worthy of attention.
Of course, from the formation of a new unit to the battlefield, there are many tests that need to be experienced, and it will take a long time. But for Zelenskiy's government, at least to show a tough stance, that's the biggest point.
As for whether the battle will be fought or not, and whether the new troops will have combat effectiveness, these are not the first considerations of Zelenskiy.
Finally, let's talk about the most important protagonist of this series of events - Russia.
On the 19th, Iranian President Lehi personally visited Moscow and held talks with Russian President Putin at the Kremlin, covering many fields such as the international and regional situation, the Iranian nuclear issue, and defense and military cooperation.
For Lehi, it was his first foreign trip since he became Iran's president and the Iranian government's first trip to Russia since 2017. It is not difficult to see that Iran attaches great importance to this "visit to Russia".
Of course, Putin also attaches great importance to Lech's visit, because this is one of the keys to Russia's solution to the current predicament.
First, the international situation affects the whole body, and the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East issue seem to have nothing to do with each other, but in fact they are one of the arenas of the "struggle" between Russia, the United States and Europe. Russia's efforts in the Middle East are bound to involve the energy of Europe and the United States.
Second, Lehi will definitely talk with Putin about arms business this time, and the amount of this list will not be small, and the cooperation time will not be short. After all, Iran can no longer develop nuclear weapons in the future, and if it wants to get mixed up in the "Tiger Wolf Middle East", it needs more advanced weapons to arm itself.
For Russia, it can also breathe a sigh of relief under the downward pressure of the epidemic economy.
The third is to cooperate in "de-dollarization.". In the final analysis, the direction of the situation in Ukraine depends on Russian-US relations, and "de-dollarization" is to strike at dollar hegemony, that is, to dig the roots of US hegemony.
Without the US dollar, can the United States still arbitrarily lead NATO's eastward expansion and pull up the "anti-Russian encirclement"?