North Korea hints that it will resume nuclear tests and intercontinental ballistic missile tests? Will April be a watershed?

Following the launch of missiles many times in recent days, a latest statement made by the DPRK on the 19th has brought more variables to the situation in Northeast Asia. Kim Jong-un, general secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea, said at a Politburo meeting held on the same day that he would discuss the issue of restarting all activities that had been suspended. This has been interpreted by the outside world as a possible resumption of North Korea's nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile tests suspended in 2018.

Public opinion has mixed interpretations of the DPRK's new statement. Some people believe that it is not excluded that Pyongyang will "resume" the above experiments and return the situation on the peninsula to the nervous stage of 2017. However, there are also views that North Korea is not necessarily "real knives and real guns", but more in the hope of using pressure to promote talks, hoping to attract the attention of the United States.

North Korea ready for "long-term confrontation"

According to the KCNA report on the 20th, the meeting of the Politburo of the Workers' Party held on the 19th decided on the direction of foreign policy toward the United States.

The meeting held that after the dpron-US summit in Singapore, the DPRK has made sincere efforts to maintain the situation on the peninsula, but the hostile policy and military threat of the United States have reached an "intolerable dangerous point." Therefore, the DPRK should reconsider confidence-building measures and be more thoroughly prepared for a protracted confrontation with US imperialism.

The meeting reported on the recent "information that the United States has caused trouble and rash moves" against the DPRK in its legitimate exercise of sovereignty, holding that the United States has slandered the DPRK and separately imposed more than 20 sanctions against the DPRK, insisting on suppressing the DPRK's right to self-defense. The meeting redeployed the task of national defense policy, decided to immediately strengthen and develop "more powerful material means", and timely discussed the question of restarting all suspended activities.

North Korea declared itself a strategic threat to the United States in 2017 and in April 2018 announced the abolition of the Northern Nuclear Test Site and a complete halt to nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile tests. Public opinion in many countries pointed out that the meeting's new formulation of "restarting all suspended activities" implies that the DPRK may "resume" nuclear and ballistic missile tests, and the security situation in Northeast Asia will add more variables.

At present, the US State Department and the White House have not responded to North Korea's statement. South Korea's Defense Ministry, which is closely monitoring North Korea's winter exercises, said it did not make assumptions about North Korea's next move. The U.N. Security Council is scheduled to meet behind closed doors on Thursday to discuss North Korea's latest missile test.

Will April be a watershed?

How to interpret North Korea's new statement is divided by all sides.

One view is that A drastic response by Pyongyang is not ruled out, returning the situation to a period of intensified confrontation and mutual threat in 2017. April, in particular, could be a watershed in the situation on the peninsula – a time when large commemorative events in North Korea and U.S. military exercises in South Korea are concentrated.

Reuters said north Korea carried out multiple missile launches in January this year, and the US Treasury Department and State Department imposed new sanctions on North Korea, and are pushing for UN Security Council sanctions against North Korea. North Korea has warned of possible tougher action. If the enraged Pyongyang makes any new moves, the outside world should not be surprised.

Kim Du-yeon, a visiting senior fellow at the Center for New American Security, said that last January, Kim Jong-un had revealed goals for developing high-tech weapons such as nuclear tests and new intercontinental ballistic missiles as part of his five-year plan. "It doesn't matter what the U.S. does or doesn't do, Pyongyang is focusing on those goals because it has a military need ... We know it's only a matter of time. ”

Yang Moo-in, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, worries: "The situation may return to the vicious circle of coercion and sanctions we saw in 2017." Especially this year, on the 110th anniversary of the birth of the late North Korean supreme leader Kim Il Sung (April 15) and the 80th anniversary of Kim Jong-il's birth (February 16), it remains to be seen whether the DPRK will once again make a "big move" to show its power to the West.

North Korea has a tradition of military parades on the birthday of its leaders, displaying a variety of intercontinental ballistic missiles at the 105th anniversary of Kim Il Sung's birth in 2017 and firing the Hwasong-14 intercontinental ballistic missile in the same year.

Yonhap News Agency pointed out that in addition to the commemorative activities in North Korea, there are a series of important milestones in the next three months, including the South Korean presidential election on March 9 and the possible joint military exercise between the United States and South Korea in April. It is not excluded that the DPRK will increase the intensity of military demonstrations and exert pressure on the ROK and the United States.

This is not the first time this has been argued

Another view is that the DPRK's new statement is still to promote talks with pressure, reflecting that it is gradually losing patience when the negotiations are deadlocked, hoping to attract the attention of the US Biden administration and seek momentum to seize the lead in the negotiations.

Jenny Don, director of the "38 degrees North Latitude" program at the Washington-based Stimson Center, said that despite its tough wording, the Politburo report left Kim leeway to "adjust the wording appropriately" for future developments.

At the end of 2019, Kim Jong-un said that North Korea no longer had any reason to unilaterally be subject to a treaty without a guardian partner, to stop nuclear tests and intercontinental ballistic missile tests. That being said, he didn't take any real action afterwards. The statement may just indicate that Kim Jong-un is eager to push the list of weapons he proposed a year ago.

Nprist believes that while 2022 could be a year of high tensions between the United States and North Korea, the risk of returning to nuclear brinkmanship in 2017 may be avoidable. From the U.S. perspective, the Biden administration has said that if Pyongyang restricts its nuclear program, the U.S. side is willing to accept a gradual agreement that does not rule out the lifting of some sanctions and hold a dialogue at any time and place, in contrast to the high-stakes gamble of the Trump era. From North Korea's perspective, it is trying to demonstrate new capabilities in key military areas through the upgrading of its arsenal, which will trump the United States and South Korea diplomatically and gain the right to speak. "Until then, they're unlikely to come out and negotiate."

Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Washington Arms Control Association, said the Biden administration needs to continue its efforts to restart negotiations and gradually take action to achieve the denuclearization process: "The North Korean nuclear and missile issue has not disappeared. Without a positive, serious diplomatic effort, the problem will only get worse. ”

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Column Editor-in-Chief: Yang Liqun Text Editor: Yang Liqun Caption Source: Xinhua News Agency Photo Editor: Cao Liyuan

Source: Author: Zhang Quan