Some senior investors said bluntly: After several years of practice, I have never encountered today's market!
It is also strange to say that in the early trading of January 20, the central bank cut the LPR one-year and five-year interest rates, which should be in line with market expectations. However, this did not bring too much long momentum to the A-share market, and there was a diving market in the intraday. As of the close, more than 3800 stocks fell, only 745 stocks rose, and the three major stock indexes closed lower across the board.
Comparatively speaking, although the performance of THE US stock market overnight was weak, the performance of the Asia-Pacific market today was very strong. The Hong Kong market soared across the board, with the Hang Seng Index and the State-Owned Enterprises Index all rising by more than 3%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index exceeding 4%. Japanese and South Korean stocks closed up more than 1 percent. At one point, the MSCI Asia-Pacific stock index rose more than 1%. Before there was a heavy positive stimulus from the central bank, and after there was a peripheral market to set off the atmosphere, A shares did not give face at all, what is the reason?
Some brokers said that the market reported that from January 1-10 this year, bank credit delivery was not ideal overall. Joint-stock bank loans to the public increased by 53 billion yuan, less than 1/3 of the same period last year; retail sales were only half of the same period last year. This could have had an impact on institutional investor confidence. Paradoxically, however, bank stocks are the main force behind today's protection. So, who is the short hand?
Never encountered a market
At noon today, some investors said online that they had never encountered such a market. On the one hand, the United States raises interest rates, while China cuts interest rates; on the one hand, foreign investors buy furiously, and on the other hand, domestic investors sell wildly.
Indeed it is. Today's A-shares are indeed a bit of a surprise. From the index level, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3555.06 points, down 0.09%; the Shenzhen Component Index reported 14198.3 points, down 0.06%; the ChiNext Index reported 3065.99 points, down 0.32%; the three major stock indexes did not fall much, but the individual stocks were very hurtful. There are more than 3800 stocks in the two cities, only 745 stocks have risen, the number of falling stops has reached 30, and only 49 have risen and fallen. More than 2,100 stocks fell by more than 3%, and the effect of losing money is very obvious.
Let's look at an environment that the market is facing. Early this morning, the central bank cut interest rates, the 1-year LPR cut by 10BP to 3.7%, and the 5-year LPR cut by 5BP to 4.6%. Logically, this is a blockbuster positive. Moreover, judging from the reaction of Hong Kong stocks, it is also quite positive. The Hong Kong market rose almost across the board.
CITIC Construction Investment pointed out that in the medium term, the first quarter is the superposition period before the Fed raises interest rates, the inflation pressure is small, the economic downward pressure is large, and the credit risk trigger is triggered, and the central bank press conference also released a strong easing signal, and there is a possibility of RRR reduction. In terms of interest rate cuts, we must continue to observe, but the interest rate cut window has not been closed, and there is still a possibility of interest rate cuts in the first quarter.
From the perspective of the peripheral market, although the overnight performance of the US stock market is not good, the Asia-Pacific market performance is more powerful. The Nikkei closed up 1.11 percent, with South Korean stocks closing up 0.72 percent. U.S. stock futures also performed strongly in front of the session, and U.S. Treasury yields, which affected the trend of the stock market, also retreated from a high of 1.9%.
From the perspective of funds, foreign capital is frantically buying A shares. Wind data shows that northbound funds accelerated the momentum of entering the market, with unilateral net purchases of 12.576 billion yuan throughout the day, a new high since December 9 last year, and also a net purchase for 5 consecutive days; of which the net purchase of Shanghai Stock Connect was 7.837 billion yuan and the net purchase of Shenzhen Stock Connect was 4.74 billion yuan.
In fact, all the immediate environments have a more obvious warmth, so why is the A-share market still performing like this?
A rumor
Many institutional people believe that a rumor circulating in the market today may be the main reason for diluting the positive.
This could be a grassroots study. It is rumored that since January this year, 1-10 days, bank credit investment is generally not ideal.
First of all, the state-owned large banks were flat year-on-year and increased slightly. Among the four major banks, a large bank added about 300 billion yuan in new RMB loans from 1 to 10 days, an increase of nearly 50 billion yuan year-on-year. Of the other three banks, one was essentially flat year-on-year, and the other two were broadly in agreement. Postal savings are mainly retail, and the 1-10 day credit delivery boom is higher than that of the four major banks.
Second, the credit of joint-stock banks is very weak. From January 1 to 10, the 9 national joint-stock banks at the head of the total increase in public + retail loans increased by about 84 billion yuan, an increase of nearly 280 billion yuan year-on-year. Among them, public loans increased by 53 billion yuan, less than 1/3 of the same period last year. A leading joint-stock bank's public loans increased slightly year-on-year, but retail sales were only half of the same period last year, and other joint-stock banks showed significant weakness.
Third, the situation of urban commercial banks in economically developed areas is acceptable, but the pressure on unlisted small and medium-sized banks is relatively large. From January 1 to 10, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai and other listed city commercial banks located in the developed areas of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai increased their public + retail sales by 70 billion yuan, a slight increase year-on-year, but retail sales were relatively weak. The credit drag of unlisted small and medium-sized banks is large, and the year-on-year growth rate is expected to exceed 150 billion yuan in November-December, and it is difficult to have a significant improvement in January.
Earlier, the central bank mentioned that it should open the monetary policy toolbox a little wider to avoid a credit collapse. It may also be a point. However, it is more interesting that under the background of this rumor, the performance of bank stocks is not bad, and today's bank ETFs rose by 1.86%, which can be called the market "regulator". Supposedly, rate cuts will affect interest rate differentials, but the main contradiction now seems not to be interest rate differentials, but loan demand, which the market may expect to stimulate loan demand. However, the restoration of confidence may also require a process. Moreover, this should not be a purely economic issue.
Who are the short-selling blacks?
So, who exactly is the short-selling black hand? From the perspective of the structure of the killing, the fund's heavy stock smashing may be an important reason for affecting market sentiment.
From the perspective of individual stocks affecting the index, PetroChina, Poly, North Rare Earth, Hesheng Silicon Industry, Sanan Optoelectronics, etc. of the Shanghai Composite Index are all heavy stocks of the fund; Changchun High-tech, Salt Lake Shares, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Sanhua Intelligent Holdings, OPCOM Vision, Zhuoshengwei, BYD, Jianfan Bio and other shares of the Shenzhen Index are all institutional heavy stocks. The decline of these stocks contributed greatly to the index and sentiment. Of course, some of the stocks of the floating capital have also been smashed, but these stocks do not contribute much to the index, and the total leader Jiuan Medical is still up and down, so the impact of the floating capital on the market sentiment is not large.
Some institutional sources revealed that today for the first time, we have seen an institutional big adjustment position, and the direction of adjustment is a big blue chip. Some institutions can no longer bear to kill. This may also be a major reason for the decline in the heavy stocks of the upfront fund. The same is true of the performance of the big blue chips, which is up more than 1.4% today at the SSE 50.
So, how will the follow-up market be interpreted? Judging from the current situation, the popularity of the market is somewhat washed away. If it continues, there will be a certain risk of stampede in the market. Because it continues to kill, the financing disk is bound to be impacted. Therefore, this market needs some support to slow down the impact of the market.
On the other hand, from the direction of the interest rate, the price of funds this year should become cheaper and cheaper, which is theoretically conducive to the deduction of growth stocks. However, from the perspective of the analytical framework, since the market's expectations for the economy are not particularly optimistic, the valuation basis of growth stocks is not solid. Overall, it will still take time to change market expectations. However, from a historical point of view, foreign capital has always been the leader, this time the reverse force to carry A shares, whether there will be a better result in the follow-up, let us wait and see.