Please enter the illustration
The production of cultural and creative explosive IP is more like a "metaphysics"
Written by / Meng Huiyuan
Editor / Lee Ha Lin
Bubble Mart has been a bit bit of news lately, but it's all bad news.
First because of the "DIMOO joint blind box package" suspected of "inducing excessive consumption of food" was criticized by the China Consumer Association, and then the stock price inevitably had a large fluctuation, according to the news from the Flush Financial Research Center on January 19, "Hong Kong stock bubble Mart fell more than 10% to 43.2 Hong Kong dollars", it seems that the aura of the "first blind box stock" is also becoming shaky.
Compared with the opening price on January 20, 2022, and the all-time high of HK$107.42 per share since it landed on the capital market, Bubble Mart's stock price has exceeded the waist, and the market value is only 57.76 billion yuan.
House leakage coincided with overnight rain, the arrival of new regulations on blind box supervision, to Bubble Mart and its blind box track sounded an alarm bell, when the IP joint blind box "wealth password" invalid, Bubble Mart can also take what to tell the capital market a new story?
IP joint name "failure", in the future to increase the code to do original?
On January 17, an investment news about Bubble Mart attracted the attention of many people: Dark Star Culture Media (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd. underwent industrial and commercial changes, and a new bubble Mart affiliate company Ningbo Play Heart Return Investment Co., Ltd. was added as a shareholder.
Aiqicha APP shows that the company's business scope includes the design of toys and clothing. So the outside world can't help but start speculating, relying on the "blind box" gameplay and the "IP joint" strategy out of the circle of bubble mart, this is to increase the size of the original design products?
The business scope includes the design of toys and clothing (Source: Aiqicha)
As we all know, worldview and storytelling have always been bubble mart's weaknesses. The joint sale of blind box products with the brand can directly borrow the brand's influence to monetize, because its essence is a replacement of fan resources - the brand can quickly and cross-circle to expand the communication influence with the help of joint brand activities; Bubble Mart can borrow the IP value of the brand's operation for many years, stimulate consumers' desire to buy through the blind box sales model, and once again transform its fan influence into real sales.
But this common approach in recent years has rolled over unexpectedly. It is reported that on January 4, KFC and Bubble Mart jointly launched the "DIMOO joint blind box package" activity, which triggered a consumer rush to buy, but the China Consumer Association immediately expressed its views on the matter, saying that the use of "blind boxes" to induce excessive consumption of food should be resisted.
According to relevant media reports, this product is a customized activity for the 35th anniversary of KFC's entry into the Chinese market, which adopts the sales model of "package + blind box", that is, users can buy a 99 yuan family bucket to get a blind box.
The popularity of the blind box soon made the package completely reduced to its "accessory". On the second-hand platform, the price of a single doll in the blind box was speculated to 550 to 800 yuan, and the so-called hidden unit price even soared to about 800 yuan, which was about 8 times higher than the 99 yuan package.
The China Consumer Association believes that according to the sales rules of this blind box package, in order to collect the whole set of dolls, you need to buy at least 6 packages, and the probability of rare hidden models is 1:72. To this end, some consumers do not hesitate to spend 10,494 yuan to buy 106 packages at a time; some consumers buy "substitute eating" services for "asking for babies", and obtain blind boxes by hiring people to buy daigou packages, and even do not rule out the direct discarding of uneaten food.
This model of selling with limited blind boxes is far different from the buy-give, points, discounts, red envelopes and other profit-making behaviors in the general commodity sales model, which is obviously to stimulate consumption by means of "hunger marketing", which can easily lead to impulsive consumption in order to obtain limited blind boxes, and cause unnecessary food waste due to over-purchase.
Before that, who would have thought that the IP co-branded blind box played a variety of tricks of bubble Mart, and actually planted a heel in the field that he was best at.
After all, Bubble Mart's past brilliant achievements are still vivid: it has cooperated with Marvel, Harry Potter, Mickey, YSL, Casio Casio women's watches, Fanta and many other big names, and has cooperated to launch a joint gift box, and the blind box game has brought higher sales to the brand.
And this time the playing style "failed", I believe it has sounded the alarm for Bubble Mart. And its front foot universal gameplay accident, the back foot invested in companies with original functions, it is no wonder that people think about the connection.
This new track is no longer difficult to grow wildly
"At the moment, there is no particular direct impact on the business, but the provisions in the Guidelines require specific implementation plans, which will take some time." Previously, Bubble Mart had responded in response to the new regulatory regulations issued by Shanghai.
Of course, the Guidelines do not have mandatory legal effects, but are more like a simple industry normative proposal. Its significance lies in the fact that, on the one hand, it can provide an effective reference for the enforcement of regulatory law enforcement departments and the handling of similar consumer disputes. On the other hand, it will force merchants to standardize marketing and sales, and will not use the information asymmetry of blind boxes to harvest consumers.
Although Bubble Mart still had a relatively optimistic view when the "Guidelines" were first released, on the same day that the China Consumer Association directly named KFC and Bubble Mart and had a clear "resistance" attitude, it can also show that the chaos of the blind box economy has reached the time when it should be hammered and even begun to rectify.
After all, only when the blind box economy has evidence to follow and laws to follow, can the blind box industry, which is no longer "blind", can the rights and interests of consumers be effectively protected. Under the tightening of supervision, the "wealth password" of Bubble Mart's co-branding IP blind box activity is likely to become a thing of the past.
From the previous cooperation cases between Bubble Mart and many brands, it can be seen that when many hot products are launched in the form of blind boxes, they can basically attract the attention and rush of consumers, but blind box marketing relies on a strong sense of uncertainty and mystery, which will strengthen consumers' expectations for the purchase results, and thus arouse the gambling mentality, which is very easy to cause impulsive consumption, which obviously touches the consumption red line just set by the relevant departments.
It is worth paying attention to Bubble Mart and even the entire blind box industry that the development and growth rate of the blind box market is slowing down.
Relevant data show that as an emerging industry, blind boxes have developed rapidly in recent years, and in 2017, the size of China's blind box market was 8.38 billion yuan, in 2018 it was 11.95 billion yuan, and in 2019 it exceeded 20 billion yuan. According to the forecast, in 2021, 2022 and 2023, it may exceed 30 billion yuan, 40 billion yuan and 50 billion yuan respectively. But looking at its growth rate, it has actually slowed down after hitting the 71% high in 2019.
The growth rate of the blind box market has slowed down
In this regard, some professionals said that "the heat of this industry is declining." It is difficult to say whether this is related to the wanton abuse of the "blind box" model, but from the feedback from the user feedback on the Internet who are dissatisfied with the blind box because of "not pumping my favorite goods" and "the quality of the goods is not up to standard", it is certain that the marketing model of the "blind box" must be based on the "value for money" of the content itself.
Blind box hits are never because of "blind boxes"
The living environment is undergoing great changes, and blind box companies such as Bubble Mart have to think about a question: in the orderly development of the future blind box market, what kind of content is more competitive? In fact, the core is always IP. Handmade, toys, T-shirts... Regardless of the form of expression of the content, what attracts consumers to buy is the IP value attached to it.
According to Mintel, movies, cartoons and TV series are the three most recognized IP types. Consumers' understanding of IP not only needs a character image, but also needs a grand world view and storyline to give characters personality characteristics, so that consumers can associate and resonate with IP and pin their own values. In the IP products or services that consumers have purchased, the top three IPs rely on mature derivative cultural products, and IP does not exist independently of the story.
Bubble Mart, which has always been questioned for having "Molly dependence", seems to have been trying to get rid of this label in recent years, and the operational risks brought about by the high proportion of the value of a single IP. Judging from the financial report data of the first half of 2021, Bubble Mart has a total of 6 IP revenues exceeding 100 million yuan, in addition to "Molly", there are also "Dimoo", "SKULLPANDA", "The Monsters" and so on.
"Molly" is still the most valuable IP of Bubble Mart
However, in the first half of 2021, the top 5 IPs of Bubble Mart accounted for 12%, 12%, 10%, 8% and 6% of the total revenue, respectively, which together accounted for less than half of the total revenue.
In terms of the value development of new IP, according to relevant media reports, Bubble Mart will provide stories for IP through channels such as WeChat on the official website after the IP lands.
For example, the DIMOO space travel series, the story and setting given by the official WeChat are: "DIMOO is a little elf from the depths of the universe, as the master of the fantasy world, in reality he is timid and lonely, but brave and active in his dreams, and in countless interstellar expeditions with his partners, they can always turn the danger into a disaster and return safely, but this trip to the earth has a small accident ..."
This way compared with movies, cartoons and TV series, presenting a relatively thin story line and character personality, most consumers are difficult to resonate with, IP lack of appeal caused many people not to understand, why these obscure tide play can also be sold on the shelves, so that there is a "will really be bought" questioning voice.
The production of cultural and creative explosive IP is more like a "metaphysics", bubble mart's main model "Molly" has also encountered ups and downs, in order to maintain the vitality of existing IP and successfully launch more original IP, bubble mart also has to use its brain to do it.