The central bank press conference released a easing signal, tomorrow 1-year, 5-year LPR synchronously downwards

The Paper's reporter Chen Yueshi

In the context of the mid-term lending facility (MLF) and reverse repurchase (OMO) interest rate cuts on January 17, with the "open and honest" response of the Chinese Bank to hot issues at the press conference of the State Council's new office on January 18, the market has also made a new judgment on whether the LPR quotation on January 20 will be adjusted and the direction of monetary policy.

January LPR or synchronous adjustment

At the press conference, Sun Guofeng, director of the Monetary Policy Department of the Central Bank, responded to whether the loan market quotation rate (LPR) was adjusted in January, saying that "LPR will fully reflect the changes in market interest rates in a timely manner and guide the downward trend of corporate loan interest rates", while Liu Guoqiang, deputy governor of the central bank, expressed more directly, "Commercial banks are more sensitive to various factors such as the cost of funds, and will timely consider the latest changes in various factors and make quotations.".

Guosheng Securities believes that the probability of simultaneously reducing the 1-year and 5-year LPR on January 20 is very large; the follow-up interest rate cut may still be reduced, but the possibility is reduced, depending on the actual trend of the economy in the first quarter, especially whether the real estate can pick up; the RRR cut is still possible, but it may only be reduced again.

Will the 1-year LPR downgrade in December 2021 and the 5-year LPR be revised down in January?

"Under the premise that housing is not speculated, 'because of the city policy' will open the space for this round of real estate financial policy adjustment, some real estate sales and land price declines are more obvious in the city, and there is marginal adjustment space in its real estate financial policy; for mortgage interest rates, special attention needs to be paid to the central bank's introduction of LPR interest rate technical details, especially emphasizing that LPR is a macro variable, its changes are not for specific industries, with aggregate and inclusive, 5-year LPR is a medium- and long-term loan in the manufacturing industry, According to the benchmark of medium and long-term loan interest rates such as fixed asset investment loans and personal mortgage loans, according to this expression, housing and housing may not form a clear constraint on the 5-year LPR reduction. GF Securities pointed out.

Haitong Securities expects that there may be room for adjustment in the 1-year and 5-year LPR, and there is a high probability that there is room for adjustment in the 1-year and 5-year LPR. The 5-year LPR is not only a pricing reference for mortgage interest rates, but also affects medium- and long-term loans and investment loans in the manufacturing industry.

Continue to release the signal of easing

Ping An Securities pointed out that the double reduction of MLF and OMO interest rates on January 17 marked the shift of monetary policy to easing, and the central bank press conference on January 18 continued to release easing signals, such as "opening the monetary policy toolbox wider, maintaining total stability, and avoiding credit collapse", "more proactive, more proactive, and focusing on the front", "The current average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is not high, and the space for further adjustment has become smaller, but there is still some room.".

"We expect that the short-term monetary policy aggregate tool will be in the observation period after the interest rate cut, and the power of the policy may be more dependent on structural monetary policy tools." There is still room for monetary easing in the aggregate, and the next easing window will depend on the repair effect of the economy, especially whether the real estate market can stabilize, and the "two sessions" and the Politburo meeting in April are the windows for observation. Ping An Securities pointed out.

In response to Liu Guoqiang's expression of full force, precise force and forward force, GF Securities pointed out that the "three forces" are part of the central bank's expected management, and are measures to deal with the "triple pressure" of the macro side of monetary policy; at the same time, the "three forces" confirmed that interest rate cuts are not the end of the easing cycle from the three perspectives of total amount, structure and time point, monetary policy will take into account the total amount and structure, and the force will try to catch up; among them, "open the monetary policy toolbox wider and maintain the total amount of stability." Avoiding a credit slump" is the most incremental message, which clarifies the marginal easing posture of monetary policy.

Responsible editor: Zheng Jingxin Photo editor: Hu Mengxi

Proofreader: Liu Wei