Guide:
If the future industry of the mainland cannot be planned as a whole, it is likely that like the chip industry, all localities will rush up and then scatter, wasting a lot of resources.
In China's central and local "14th Five-Year Plan", it is clearly proposed to develop future industries. This article analyzes the future industrial development deployment of major countries in the world, in order to provide a decision-making reference for the development of China's future industries. By collecting 22 future industrial development plans of 7 countries in the United States, Japan, The United Kingdom, France, Germany, South Korea and Russia, analyzing the concepts, characteristics, strategic significance and trends of future industries, studying in detail the deployment of future industries in these 7 countries, summarizing the experience of developing future industries in various countries, and proposing 3 enlightenments for the development of future industries in the mainland: Future industrial development should be elevated to a national strategy and coordinate the preparation of future industrial development plans and roadmaps for the mainland. Think tanks such as the Chinese Academy of Sciences should conduct research on the future industrial system and increase the research and development of key technologies in the future industry.
1. The evolution trend of the global future industry
Through the study of the future industry deployment in the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, South Korea, and Russia, it is found that the evolution of the global future industry shows three major trends.
Evolution trend one: the future industry is evolving in the direction of intelligence, low carbon and health. From the perspective of the field distribution of the global future industry, the future industry is mainly concentrated in the three aspects of intelligence, low carbon and health. Intelligence is reflected in the deployment of future industrial clusters such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, big data, blockchain, Internet of Things, quantum technology, next-generation communication technology, superintelligent society, sensors, robots, advanced computing technology, digital economy, brain neural information, human-computer interaction, network security, virtual and augmented reality technology, and smart cities; low carbon is reflected in the deployment of future industrial clusters such as new energy, bioenergy, green transportation, hydrogen energy, low-carbon industry, and low-cost nuclear energy; health is reflected in the future medical, In the deployment of future industrial clusters such as biomedicine, future hospitals, bioinformatics, vaccine research and development, precision medicine, aging, and healthy food.
Evolutionary Trend 2: Develop future industries by accelerating the integration of emerging technologies with traditional industries. With the breakthrough of emerging technologies such as 5G communications, artificial intelligence and big data, emerging technologies have been rapidly and widely applied in traditional industries, making traditional industries change and expected to form future industries. Countries have also begun to develop future industries through the integration of emerging technologies and traditional industries: the advanced manufacturing sector in the United States is the upgrading of traditional manufacturing by advanced technologies; the nine major market directions in Russia are the integration of new technologies and traditional industries; and the six innovative industries proposed by Japan based on "Social 5.0" are based on traditional industries.
Evolutionary trend three: from the emphasis on technological innovation to the simultaneous emphasis on technological innovation, R & D model, production mode, business model and organizational structure innovation. The antagonisms of productive forces and production relations are unified and interdependent, and the future industry is based on new productive forces, which will inevitably require corresponding changes in production relations, and the deployment of future industries in various countries also illustrates this trend. Taking the United States as an example, in 2019, the United States proposed the development of emerging technologies related to future industries, while the 2021 "U.S. Employment Program", "Endless Frontier Act" and "NSF for the Future Act" not only proposed the development of future industry-related technologies, but also proposed to establish a new institution to develop future industries; and the newly built Industries of the Future Institutes) aims to create a new R&D model, management structure and operating mechanism for the future industry.
2. The deployment of future industries in major countries
United States: Promote future industrial development with breakthroughs in emerging technology clusters
The Trump administration first proposed the development of future industries. In February 2019, the White House Office for Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) released the report "The United States will dominate the future industry" as a national strategy, and the US government R & D budget memorandum for fiscal years 2021 and 2022 proposed to maintain a leading position in the future industry (Table 1). The Trump administration's emphasis on the previously mentioned emerging technologies as "future industries" is to highlight the direction and expected effect of promoting the development of these emerging technologies, and highlight the industrial and economic influence of these technologies in the future. The Trump administration has prioritized supporting these emerging technologies that will power future industries to drive future industrial breakthroughs.
Table 1 Deployment of future industries in the United States
The Biden administration inherited the Trump administration's ideas and strategies for developing future industries, proposing to invest $180 billion in the U.S. Jobs Program to develop future technologies; and arguing that over time, future technological breakthroughs will lead to new businesses, new jobs, and new exports. The NSF Future Act, introduced by the U.S. House Of Representatives Science Committee in March 2021, plans to invest $72.6 billion in future industries. The Infinity Frontier Act proposes to invest $100 billion to develop emerging technology clusters related to future industries, proposing ten key technology areas (Table 1).
In addition, in 2020, NSF launched 24 Future Manufacturing Grants, which aim to achieve new manufacturing capabilities that do not exist today by supporting basic research and education; in 2021, 3 priority support areas for future manufacturing (Table 1), as well as two funding types of future manufacturing seed grants and future manufacturing research grants, are expected to fund 25 projects.
The United States mainly focuses on the development of emerging technology clusters to develop future industries, and the main measures include:
1. Increase investment in emerging technology clusters;
2. Coordinate the efforts of the various branches of government and build partnerships with industry and academia in new ways;
3. Establish a new type of R&D institution, set up a future industry research institute, and create a new technical management agency;
4. Strengthen talent development to build the workforce of the future by providing training and educational opportunities for people of all backgrounds, such as investing $15 billion to establish more than 200 talent centers.
Japan: Driving future industrial development with the vision of "Social 5.0"
In the 5th issue of the "Basic Plan for Science and Technology" in 2016, the Japanese government proposed the concept of "Society 5.0", proposing to maximize the application of modern communication technology, solve economic and social problems and create a better future through the high integration of virtual and real space, and jointly have a "super-intelligent society" that can bring a better life to mankind. At the beginning of 2019, then-Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said at the Davos Forum that "Society 5.0" is to replace capital with data, use emerging technologies to promote economic growth, and change the way industry, life and survival will occur.
Driven by the vision of "Social 5.0", Japan has made a lot of deployments for future industries (Table 2). The "Future Investment Strategy 2017: Reform for the Realization of "Social 5.0"" proposes to focus on the development of eight strategic areas; Japan proposes to build 16 systems and databases for the realization of "Social 5.0" in the "Comprehensive Strategy for Science and Technology Innovation 2016" and "Comprehensive Strategy for Science and Technology Innovation 2017", and connects with the application of emerging technologies to form a cross-border interconnected industry; in 2017, it released the "Blueprint for the New Industrial Structure" for "Society 5.0", proposing new industries and services for the future; 2020 Japan's "Comprehensive Strategy for Scientific and Technological Innovation 2020", starting from the specific path of "Society 5.0", clearly proposes research and development for creating future industries and challenging social change.
Table 2 Deployment of future industries in Japan
Japan's main measures to develop future industries include:
1. Promote intellectual property strategies and international standardization strategies and encourage the acquisition of official standards at home and abroad;
2. Strengthen the construction of super-intelligent social service platforms and basic technology research, and promote the development of general basic systems related technologies;
3. Establish an open and inclusive innovation environment, carry out innovation in the national strategic special zones to carry out pilot and ex post supervision, promote regulatory reform and simplify administrative procedures;
4. Propose the basic technologies and cross-field scientific and technological talents necessary for cultivating "Society 5.0";
5. Strengthen public-private cooperation and work with industry to promote the action plan for "Society 5.0".
Uk: Developing the industry of the future with the challenges of the future oriented
In response to the negative impact of Brexit, the UK has re-examined the world situation. The UK sees itself facing four major challenges: the impact of AI on the way it lives and works; carbon emissions and green growth; an ageing population; and the future of transport. To this end, in 2017, the UK government released the "Industrial Strategy: Building a Future-Adapted Britain" white paper, in order to ensure that the British people can benefit from future industrial change, put forward four major future industries to meet the four challenges and focus on the development of the four major challenges (Table 3); in the same year, the Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund was set up to invest in the four future industries. In addition, in 2019, the UK Engineering and Physical Science Research Council established 13 future manufacturing research centers such as targeted medicine and compound semiconductors, focusing on supporting the commercialization of early research to promote the faster adoption of new technologies and new business models in the future manufacturing industry.
Table 3 Future Industries Deployed in the UK Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund 2017
The main measures of the UK to promote the development of the future industry are:
1. Strengthen talent development, invest 84 million pounds in computer teaching, invest 500 million pounds to establish 15 new technical education routes, etc.;
2. Strengthen infrastructure development to support £31 billion for housing, transport and digital infrastructure investments, and invest more than £1 billion in digital infrastructure;
3. Strengthen cooperation with industry, jointly invest with the private sector, jointly build research institutions, jointly build infrastructure, and jointly cultivate talents.
France: Future investment plans to drive the development of future industries
To get out of the 2008 financial crisis, France launched the Future Investment Plan. In 2010, 2014, 2017 and 2021, four phases of the "Investments for the Future" will be launched, with 35 billion euros, 12 billion euros, 10 billion euros and 20 billion euros respectively, and the priority areas of the first 3 phases are future industries, future factories, and future transportation. In January 2021, France announced the fourth phase of the "Future Investment Plan" of 20 billion euros. The "Acceleration Strategy", which is part of the plan, aims to promote the development of future industries and technologies by facing the major economic and technological challenges of the future, and will receive an investment of 12.5 billion euros over the next 5 years, with 3 areas as the focus of investment in future industries or technologies (Table 4).
Table 4 Deployment of future industries in France
In addition, in 2015, France released the "The Industry of the Future" plan, hoping to achieve the transformation and upgrading of industrial production through digital technology transformation, and help enterprises transform their business models, organizational models, research and development models and business models with the modernization of industrial production tools, thus driving the transformation of economic growth models. The deployment areas of the Future Industries program are shown in Table 4.
The main measures for the development of future industries in France include:
1. National co-ordination, with the Office of the Prime Minister directly directing the General Directorate of Investment to coordinate the actions of the various departments;
2. Strengthen the construction of innovative infrastructure, invest in cutting-edge equipment, cutting-edge laboratories, future industrial technology platforms, etc.;
3. Promote the transformation of achievements, set up technology transfer companies, achievement transformation funds, innovation demonstration projects, etc.;
4. Strengthen the construction of the innovation environment and innovation ecology, and release future industrial standard strategies, flexible and diversified funding models, and public-private cooperation mechanisms.
Germany: Looking forward to strengthening industrial investment in the future to get rid of the COVID-19 crisis
After 2008, in order to get out of the financial crisis and debt crisis, Germany proposed "Industry 4.0" in the "High Technology Strategy 2020" released in 2010, and the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in 2020 hit German industry hard - the automotive and other industries suffered a major blow. Under pressure, Germany has resolutely regarded the future industry as an important way out of the crisis. In the COVID-19 crisis stimulus plan launched in 2020, 50 billion euros will be invested in future industries, and its future industry research and development focus areas are shown in Table 5.
Table 5 Deployment of future industries in Germany's COVID-19 crisis stimulus economic plan
The main measures for the development of future industries in Germany are:
1. Strengthen infrastructure development, improve emergency response capabilities or create better digital infrastructure through the Hospital Future Plan, and invest in infrastructure such as electric vehicle charging and 5G communications;
2. Diversified support methods, increase R&D tax exemptions, reduce corporate investment, provide electricity subsidies, provide equity investment to support railway companies, increase subsidies and tax incentives for electric vehicle purchases, etc.;
3. Increase investment in cutting-edge technologies, investing in quantum computers, 6G communications, low-carbon buildings, etc.
South Korea: Developing future industries based on manufacturing
After the memory chip industry became the main industry, South Korea has not been able to form a new main industry, South Korea's "fast follower strategy" will reach the limit, coupled with the aging of the population and the global economic downturn and other factors, the Korean industry is at a crossroads of stagnation or transformation. As a result, in 2019, the South Korean government released the "Strategic Blueprint for the Revitalization of Manufacturing", and President Moon Jae-in proposed in his speech to cultivate new industries in the future, and to invest 8.4 trillion won in emerging industries such as system chips, future mobile transportation, and biotechnology by 2030. In the same year, the Ministry of Science, Technology, Information and Communications of the Republic of Korea issued the "Government Medium and Long-term R&D Investment Strategy (2019-2023)", and future industries and new industries are one of the key investment priorities, involving artificial intelligence, big data, information security, food, computers, biomedical and other fields.
The main measures for the development of future industries in Korea include:
1. Use the PPP model to guide Korean private investment in future industries;
2. Innovate regulatory methods, introduce a negative list system and a "regulatory sandbox" system, etc., and relax the control of new industries;
3. Formulate standardization strategies, and lead or participate in the formulation of international standards in future industrial fields such as electric vehicles and hydrogen energy vehicles;
4. Strengthen infrastructure construction, and concentrate on building a number of infrastructure such as big data platforms, artificial intelligence centers, and 5G communication networks.
Russia: Developing future industries in the PPP model
In his 2014 State of the Union address, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed the establishment of a "National Technology Plan" aimed at developing technologies that could form new industries by 2035, thus creating the conditions for Russia's technological leadership.
The "National Technology Plan", which is included in the 2016 "Science and Technology Development Strategy of the Russian Federation", which is under the supervision of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation, organized by the Russian Strategic Initiatives Agency and the Russian Venture Capital Corporation (JSC RVC), requires the adoption of the PPP model, with public-private contributions of 70% and 30%. Deploy through both market and technology (Table 6), identify priority technology directions based on selected priority market directions, and promote cross-fertile development of technology and markets through roadmaps.
Table 6 R&D areas of the Russian "State Technical Plan"
The main measures taken by russia's "National Technical Plan" are:
1. Use the PPP model to establish a market-led future industrial development strategy, and the government and enterprises jointly formulate strategies and invest together;
2. Strengthen the construction of innovative infrastructure, and establish infrastructure such as test benches, test platforms, and digital ecosystems for future factories;
3. Cultivate new talents for enterprises, establish early discovery and training mechanisms for talents, and launch a number of talent cultivation programs;
4. Strengthen the construction of an innovation environment and provide various support for enterprises, such as technology parks, venture financing, technology transfer, public procurement, intellectual property registration, accelerators and other support.
3. Experience and inspiration
Experience of major countries in developing future industries
The future industrial deployment areas and development measures of various countries have their own characteristics, but there are common experiences worth learning.
1. Strengthen the construction of innovation environment and innovation ecology
1. Strengthen the construction of innovative infrastructure. Innovation infrastructure is an infrastructure with public welfare attributes that supports scientific research, technology development and product development, an indispensable key resource for the development of future industries, and a source of future industry development.
2. Reduce the regulation of future industries. The existing regulatory system applies to existing industries; when the technology and industrial development are not mature, the boundaries, formats, models and risks of future industries are not fully understood, and strict supervision will hinder innovation and inhibit future industrial development.
3. Strengthen cooperation with industry. Future industries face the dual risks of technology and market, and cooperation with the industry can share risks, pool innovative resources, promote technology transfer and achievement transformation, clarify industrial needs, and gather consensus, thereby accelerating the development of future industries.
4. Establish a future industry incubation mechanism. Due to the future industry in the early stages of technology and industry, the lack of technical and market verification, as well as profitability, the ability to develop independently is weak and slow. Through incubation mechanisms such as accelerators, demonstration bases, and pilot factories, technical and market verification can reduce R&D costs and risks, shorten R&D time, and lay the foundation for the large-scale development of future industries.
2. Strengthen talent training and introduction
1. Strengthen basic education. The development of the future industry depends on scientific and technological innovation talents, so all countries are strengthening basic education, especially STEM (science, technology, engineering, mathematics) education, in order to cultivate high-quality innovative talents to lead the development of future industries.
2. Strengthen the introduction of talents. Scientific and technological talents have become the core resources of future industrial competition, and the introduction of foreign global scientific and technological talents can quickly accumulate key core technologies and accelerate the development of future industries.
3. Strengthen staff training. Training employees can cultivate talents for the future industry, help employees to play new roles in the future industry as soon as possible, and reduce unemployment caused by future industrial development.
3. Establish a flexible and diversified input mechanism
1. Diversified sources of funds. The sources of funds for the development of future industries in major countries include: government R&D investment, government subsidies, enterprise investment, venture capital, bank credit, social donations, etc.; the risk of future industries is large, the investment is large, the cycle is long, and diversified capital investment will reduce the risk of future industries.
2. Multi-subject joint investment of resources. Taking the United States as an example, through the provision of land by state and local governments, the provision of scientific research infrastructure by national laboratories, the provision of resources such as engineering development conditions and big data for researchers by universities, and the provision of seed funds by government departments, etc., the superior resources of various entities are gathered to gather the strength of future industrial development.
Enlightenment for the development of future industries in the mainland
At present, major countries are actively planning and promoting the development of future industries, the international competition for the leadership of future industries will become increasingly fierce, and the mainland must also obtain the leading right to future industries, and through the analysis of the deployment of future industries in major countries, it will bring enlightenment to the mainland in 3 aspects.
1
Future industrial development should be elevated to a national strategy, and overall planning of the mainland's future industrial development planning and road map
On the one hand, major countries have taken the future industry as an important strategy for national development; compared with this, there is a big gap in the policy intensity and attention of the mainland to develop the future industry, and the support for the future industry should be strengthened from the national strategic level. On the other hand, various parts of the mainland have proposed the development of future industries, but compared with foreign countries, they lack clear goals, road maps, and quantitative performance indicators. If the future industry of the mainland cannot be planned as a whole, it is likely that like the chip industry, all localities will rush up and then scatter, wasting a lot of resources.
2
High-end think tanks such as the Chinese Academy of Sciences should deal with future industrial system research
In view of the fact that the mainland lags behind foreign countries in future industrial research and forecasting, national think tanks such as the Chinese Academy of Sciences should strengthen basic theoretical research on the trend, dynamic mechanism and development model of future industries, so as to provide all-round intellectual support for the direction and strategy of future industrial development.
3
Increase the research and development and layout of key technologies in the future industry
In recent years, the United States has used key core technologies to impose sanctions on a large number of enterprises such as ZTE and Huawei, causing significant losses to related industries in the mainland. In the development of the future industry, it is necessary to increase the research and layout of key core technologies to ensure the supply of key core technologies.
The concept, characteristics, strategic significance and evolution trend of the future industry
1. The concept of future industry
At present, there is no unified definition of the future industry at home and abroad, and the representative definitions are: Li Xiaohua and others believe that the future industry refers to the emerging industry that is driven by the cutting-edge technology in the exploration period, to meet the needs of continuous economic and social upgrading, to represent the long-term development direction of science and technology and industry, and will mature in the future and realize industrial transformation and form an emerging industry that has important support and great impetus for the national economy, but is still in the incubation stage. Shen Hua and others believe that the future industry is to meet the new needs of future human and social development as the goal, with emerging technological innovation as the driving force, aiming to expand the space of human understanding, enhance human capabilities, and promote the sustainable development of society, and believe that the future industry will develop into strategic emerging industries, leading industries and pillar industries in turn. The White House Office of Science and Technology Policy believes that future industries, including artificial intelligence (AI), quantum information science (QIS), advanced communications (5G), advanced manufacturing, and biotechnology, will revolutionize education and health care, change the way transportation and communication are conducted, provide new tools and technologies to solve previously intractable problems, and ensure that the United States can compete and win in a rapidly changing global environment. The future industries in the Russian State Technology Plan meet the following criteria:
(1) The market size exceeded $100 billion in 2035;
(2) There are no recognized or established technical standards in the current market;
(3) Mainly to meet the needs of end consumers;
(4) Industries where intermediaries are replaced by management software;
(5) It is of great significance for strengthening national security and improving the quality of life;
(6) Russia is in a position to gain a competitive advantage and occupy a significant market share;
(7) Russian tech entrepreneurs want to create leading companies in such new high-tech markets. Combined with existing definitions at home and abroad, this paper believes that the future industry is an industry that is oriented to the needs of the future society, driven by the current immature technological breakthroughs, and may develop into strategic emerging industries.
2 Characteristics of the future industry
Overall, the future industry has 3 characteristics:
(1) With the dual attributes of science and technology and industry, the future industry is derived from scientific and technological breakthroughs, and may be a strategic emerging industry in the future;
(2) In the early stage of technological and industrial development, in the stage of technology and market immaturity;
(3) Major changes will be made in the future society in terms of industry, economy, science and technology, and life.
3 Strategic significance of the future industry
Looking at the world, the strategic significance of the future industry is reflected in 5 aspects:
(1) Competition for global leadership. For example, the Endless Frontier Act says U.S. leadership is being challenged by China, which will use national efforts to gain future industrial leadership.
(2) Solve the dilemma facing the development of human society. Human development is facing aging and resource and environmental problems, and there is an urgent need for future industries to provide new solutions.
(3) Resolving economic difficulties. Developed countries such as the United States and Japan have long been trapped in a low-growth dilemma, and urgently need future industries to provide new growth points.
(4) Provide high-quality employment. The American Jobs Plan, officially released by the Biden administration in April 2021, proposes that future industries could provide new jobs and increase the income-generating industries in the economy.
(5) Promote scientific and technological innovation. The future industry provides application scenarios, new markets, power and directions for scientific and technological innovation.
Source: Journal of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, No. 11, 2021 "Science and Technology and Society", authors: Zhou Bo, Leng Fuhai, Li Hong, Chen Xiaoyi, Jia Xiaoqi, Ge Chunlei, Hui Zhongyang, Ye Jing, Institute of Science and Technology Strategic Consulting, Chinese Academy of Sciences.