There is limited room for chicken prices to rise

Source: Economic Daily

Chicken prices have limited room to rise Huang Junyi, a reporter of this newspaper

Under the situation of high global commodity prices and rapid growth in breeding costs, chicken prices have remained low. Monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that on January 13, 2022, the average price of white strip chicken in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 17.14 yuan per kilogram, which was 1.7 yuan lower than the 18.84 yuan in the same period of 2020. At present, what is the current situation of the national broiler breeding industry? In this regard, the reporter interviewed relevant experts.

"White-feathered broilers, the main force of chicken production, are currently hovering around the break-even point." Zheng Maiqing, chief expert of the broiler industry monitoring and early warning of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, told reporters. The latest monitoring data provided by Zheng Maiqing shows that in December 2021, the monthly income of the whole industrial chain of white feather broiler breeding in the country was -1.00 yuan / piece, a year-on-year decrease of 2.11 yuan / piece. Specific to the breeding of commercial broilers, the loss is 0.15 yuan / only. In December 2021, the loss of the national white feather broiler commodity production monitoring household was 25.3%.

In fact, the data in December 2021 has rebounded, you know, in October 2021, the national white feather broiler industry chain average loss of 2.82 yuan per piece. In 2021, the average income of commercial broiler breeding links is 0.56 yuan / piece; the average annual income of the whole industrial chain of white feather broiler breeding in the whole country is 1.16 yuan / piece, down 0.63 yuan / piece year-on-year.

Hard work to raise chickens, little income, if you are not careful or even lose money, the difficulty of the broiler breeding industry can be seen here.

"The main reason for the sluggish chicken market is that the production capacity increased too much during the African swine fever epidemic, resulting in oversupply, and the weakening of consumption was superimposed." Zheng Maiqing said.

Objectively speaking, the national broiler production capacity in 2021 is indeed decreasing. For example, ancestral breeders had 3.794 million sets in December 2021, a decrease of 2.8% month-on-month and a decrease of 2.2% from the annual average, but due to excessive increase in production capacity in the early stage, it still increased by 4.0% year-on-year. Among them, there were 2.569 million sets in the production and inventory column, a decrease of 3.1% month-on-month, a decrease of 3.2% from the annual average, and an increase of 2.8% year-on-year.

Judging from the sales announced by the listed enterprises of broiler breeding, the output and meat production of white feather broilers will continue to maintain a growth trend in 2021.

In December 2021, there were 750 million white-feathered broilers in the country, an increase of 15.3% year-on-year; 480 million were released, an increase of 9.3% year-on-year. In 2021, a total of 5.81 billion white feather broilers were produced nationwide, an increase of 18.0% year-on-year; the output of white feather broiler chicken was 11.456 million tons, an increase of 17.2% year-on-year. It is estimated that in 2021, 9.85 billion broiler chickens can be produced, an increase of 5.5% year-on-year; chicken production is 16.586 million tons, an increase of 9.4% year-on-year. "These data show that after the African swine fever epidemic, the national pig production capacity has steadily recovered, the supply of pork is sufficient, and the reduction of broiler production capacity is still not clearly reflected in the commodity side." Zheng Maiqing said.

Since June 2021, the production of parent broilers has only had a small gain in August, and the price of chicks has continued to be sluggish in the past two months, and the loss of the production farm is large, thus accelerating the speed of capacity adjustment. From November to December 2021, broiler breeders saw a significant reduction of 15% to 17% in production stocks, the largest decline since the capacity adjustment. At the same time, the sales volume of commercial chicks decreased, and the amount of parents replacing the fence declined.

Under the influence of capacity adjustment and seasonal effects, the price of wool chicken and chicken from November to December 2021 showed an upward trend. Among them, the price of wool chickens has increased, and the income from commercial broiler breeding has increased. Zheng Maiqing believes that according to the turnover law, there is still room for the price of wool chickens and chicks to rise in the future, but because there is still inventory in the market and the supply of pork is sufficient, it is expected that the price of chicken will have limited room to rise.

Huang Junyi