Editor's Introduction: Celebrities have the risk of collapsing, so what about virtual idols? Recently, many brands have launched their own virtual idols, and the importance is that the risk of virtual idols collapsing is relatively low. However, in addition, how to monetize the virtual idol industry is also a problem that needs to be pondered. The author of this article has made a corresponding interpretation, let's take a look at it together.
Wang Lihong's divorce war with Li Lianglei has brought an end to the dog blood gossip incident in the entertainment industry in 2021.
The year 2021, which just passed, is known as the first year of the idol "collapse". According to incomplete statistics, in addition to Wang Lihong, who has been regarded as a high-quality idol for more than 20 years since his debut, he has been exposed to cheating and recruiting prostitutes, and more than ten idols such as Wu Yifan, Zheng Shuang, and Li Yundi have "collapsed" due to different degrees of illegal and immoral behavior.
The image of real idols has collapsed one after another, and virtual idols have taken advantage of the rise. Among the 2021 top 100 up masters just rated by Station B, Jiaran from Lehua Entertainment's group A-SOUL, and Many virtual idols such as Yousa and Hanser, the group VirtuaReal, an Organization of AnyColor, are prominently listed.
Hunan Satellite TV's New Year's succession to the variety show "Happy Base Camp" "Hello! In "Saturday", the virtual idol Xiao Yang was added to the resident host team; on the Douyin platform, the virtual idol Liu Yexi successfully increased the number of fans by 4.3 million with only a short video; and AYAYI, who debuted from Xiaohongshu, and LingLing, who participated in the program of CCTV's "Colorful Youth", also attracted countless fans on their respective platforms.
In 2021, start-ups in the virtual idol field such as Wanxiang Culture and Sub-World Culture have obtained a total of 25 financings, with a maximum amount of tens of millions of DOLLARs, and investors have no shortage of star institutions such as Shunwei Capital, Qiming Venture Capital, and GSR Venture Capital, as well as Internet giants such as ByteDance.
With the blessing of the meta-universe concept and well-known investment institutions, virtual idols are widely optimistic, and there seems to be a trend of replacing real idols. However, can the currently popular virtual idols really replace the live stars who frequently overturn? Is the current virtual idol popularity the future trend, or can it only be short-lived?
This article will explore the answer to this question through fans' views and attitudes towards virtual idols, the cost of creating virtual idols, monetization models and commercial value, and the similarities and differences between them and real idols.
1. Why is a virtual idol pleasing?
Huo Yu, a "two-dimensional" classmate of my college days, recently became obsessed with the virtual up master Nana7mi on the B station, and every time he went to the live broadcast time, he could be caught in the live broadcast room. Fans like Huo Yu nicknamed Qihai "HaiziJie", while they called themselves "Brittle Sharks".
Seven Seas is a member of VirtuaReal, a virtual up master group jointly launched by AnyColor and Station B, and currently has 845,000 followers on Station B. In the virtual idol competition variety show "2060" just broadcast by Jiangsu Satellite TV, Qihai also participated in the competition as a virtual idol contestant.
Nana7mi of the Seven Seas is live streaming a screenshot of the parity pie
In Huo Yu's view, the reason why such a virtual up master of the Seven Seas attracts him is that in addition to the virtual image of the second dimension, there are lively instant interactions and not so heavy idol baggage.
He had also watched several live broadcasts of live stars before, and the stars on the screen appeared restrained, stiff, and occasionally answered some questions with hesitation.
But the virtual idols are different when they live, they are not very restrained, and the interaction is also very fast: "Just like watching games or outdoor live broadcasts in normal times, there is no sense of distance." ”
Because there is no need to show their true faces, virtual idols do not have many rules and regulations like real stars; even if they occasionally gaffe, they are often untangled into stems without having too many negative effects on their own image.
One of Japan's earliest Vtubers, regarded as the pioneer of virtual idols, once imitated the game characters in the live broadcast to make a foul-language voice of "Fxxk u"; but this behavior, which was regarded as a taboo for live idols, was not criticized, but because of its Japanese English pronunciation similar to "Flower Q", it had an additional "Flower Q" fun stalk in the future.
The Seven Seas, which made Huo Yu fanatical, also had controversial words such as "or don't knock you to death" in the live broadcast, and the people in the middle (that is, the real people behind the virtual up master) spat on Weibo such as "there is a disease". However, in the eyes of fans, these gaffes are not much of a black spot, but highlight the directness of the Seven Seas.
In addition to the scarce elements of real idols in the entertainment industry such as positive interaction and relative freedom of expression, the basic setting of virtual idols is also destined to be safe and reliable in the protection of a layer of virtual skin, and it is almost impossible to have moral "collapse" problems such as cheating, surrogacy, and lao Lai.
This not only makes the fan base that virtual idols can attract more stable than that of real idols, but also allows virtual idols to be "blessed" by many brands in the past year.
After all, the real star collapsed, overtime busy with the day of termination, the brand really does not want to go through.
Today's fire of Lehua virtual idol girl group A-Soul, at the beginning of its debut, with the pleasing setting of an 18-year-old girl, known as "never collapse", in the past year, it has been favored and cooperated by KFC, Keep, L'Oréal; in addition, another virtual idol AYAYI has also won the title of BOSE's noise elimination experience officer.
In recent years, it has been built to be a real idol that is high up in the world, does not eat human fireworks, and cannot escape the risk of collapsing, which not only does not meet the needs of many fans for closeness and authenticity, freedom, but also makes brand owners become uncertain.
The virtual idols that appear at this time, with an overflowing sense of freshness, have given brands a long-lost sense of security. This may be the reason why virtual idols have gained favor in the past year.
However, just like the entertainment industry where live idols are located, the companies behind virtual idols have to consider an important question while making virtual idols to earn love - how to make money from virtual idols?
Second, the prospect is broad, and the "money scene" is doubtful?
According to the data of Ai Media Consulting, the core market size of China's virtual idols in 2020 is 3.46 billion yuan, which is expected to reach 6.22 billion yuan in 2021 and 20.52 billion yuan in 2023; the surrounding market size driven by virtual idols in 2020 is 64.56 billion yuan, which is expected to be 107.49 billion yuan in 2021 and 333.47 billion yuan in 2023.
But when we get rid of this seemingly huge market figure and turn our perspective to the company and monetization model behind the virtual idol, we find that the realization of the virtual idol is not as optimistic as the current popularity of the virtual idol.
From the company's point of view, according to the directory of virtual idol enterprises of Yiou Network, there are currently 46 companies specializing in virtual idol production in China, and Cass Planet and MUTA Youta Animation are the only two with a valuation of more than 100 million yuan.
The second-generation culture that has just received A+ round of financing is valued at "nearly 100 million yuan" according to media reports. In 2021, three financings will be completed, and the valuation of Wanxiang Culture, which is quite hot in the market, has not been updated for the time being, and it is still 15 million yuan. Most of the virtual idol company financing is still stuck in the angel round or Pre-A round, and the amount of financing is in the million level.
Valuation and financing status of some virtual idol companies Screenshot from Yiou Network
At present, the more active virtual idols, such as the aforementioned VirtuaReal, A-Soul and AYAYI, LING, are inseparable from the shadow of Internet giants such as B station, ByteDance, and Ali. Just appeared in Jiangsu Satellite TV's "2060" Lingqiu, praise immortals and other virtual idols, behind the scenes are seven spirit stone, two points and other animation companies, at present, its business focus is still on the traditional animation production.
Some virtual idols and companies behind parity watchmaking
The seemingly hot virtual idol track is more like the Internet and animation companies betting on the future to test the waters. The relatively deserted company that specializes in virtual idol production at least shows that the business is not very profitable at present.
On the one hand, to create a virtual idol on a large scale, it is necessary to invest tens of millions of dollars, or even a huge cost of hundreds of millions.
Motion capture, gesture control, these are just the most basic links of virtual idols, eye movement capture, expression control, lip sync is advanced, the biggest expenditure is on CG rendering, if it is a virtual idol like AYAYI, Liu Yexi, which is close to real people on the skin and hair, the production cost per second is not empty talk.
People involved in the virtual idol industry have said more than once that the input cost of virtual idols is relatively high. Tech company XRSpace Greater China CMO Ge Xin has said that virtual idols make a 3D CG video with a song length, and the cost is about 100,000 yuan. Combined with songs, dances and other performances, the cost will reach millions of yuan.
Liu Yong, the creator of the virtual girl group Anju, also talked to the media about the high cost, and the Anzu team held a concert of 12 songs, which cost about 20 million yuan before and after.
Even if a live star opens a concert, this cost may not be recovered.
On the other hand, under the pressure of high costs, the monetization model of virtual idols is difficult to be innovative, and its monetization ability and commercial value through brand cooperation have not been questioned.
At present, the monetization method of virtual idols can be divided into three types, the first is through live broadcasting on major platforms, virtual idol groups such as VirtuaReal, A-Soul and other virtual idol groups have opened accounts on the B station, and members do not broadcast live from time to time.
However, the december 2021 B station live broadcast revenue data queried by jioupai shows that among the virtual idols with high popularity in the month, A-Soul's Jiaran live broadcast revenue was 1.604 million yuan, VirtuaReal's Seven Seas live broadcast revenue was 903,000 yuan, there were 15 virtual idols with revenue of more than 500,000 yuan, and the live broadcast revenue of other virtual idols was below 500,000 yuan.
Station B virtual idol live broadcast revenue Odd and even pie screenshots
As for the virtual idols such as Liu Yexi and AYAYI, whose appearance is close to that of real people, their high production costs in seconds determine that they have no possibility of generating revenue through live broadcasting in the short term.
The second is to sell songs, the production of MVs to get revenue from sales, such as the domestic Walner Music signed the real virtual idol Ha Sauce, just last September released the single "Miss Who", but also produced the relevant MV, but as of now, the song in QQ Music only 21 comments, belongs to the category of unpopular songs, obviously can not create any considerable revenue.
And even the pioneer of this model, Hatsune Mirai from Japan, recently released on QQ Music, a new digital album priced at 20 yuan, has only sold more than 300 copies, equivalent to less than 10,000 yuan in revenue.
The third is to obtain income through IP licensing, product endorsement, business cooperation and other ways, which is currently relatively mature at home and abroad. Lil Miquela in the United States, imma in Japan, and early domestic virtual idols Luo Tianyi and Ye Xiu, etc., most of the income comes from this form.
Virtual idol Imma endorsed Watson's soda parity filming
However, this monetization model has an obvious head effect in the virtual idol industry, relying more on its accumulated fan base and the resources that the company behind it can bring.
Virtual idols with a good fan base, such as Luo Tianyi and Ye Xiu, have endorsed and cooperated with about 10 brands; A-Soul, which has emerged in commercial value this year, VirtuaReal is backed by Lehua Entertainment, ByteDance and B Station.
Another virtual idol behind lingling, which is relatively hot in the endorsement market, is already a technical service provider of virtual IP of large companies such as Reading, Station B, Tencent, Alibaba, etc. In contrast, without the blessing of giants and the accumulation of fans, the virtual idols behind the waist and tail companies want to recover costs with difficulties.
It can be seen that the current virtual idols, whether it is the early investment in manufacturing, operation, etc., or the later realization through endorsements, live broadcasts and other forms, need to have the financial resources and resources of a large company to support.
The future prospects of this industry seem to be considerable, but for companies intending to enter the market, they are destined to face many problems such as high upfront costs, giants around, and difficulty in realizing the monetization model. Under the unclear "money scene", it is better to be cautious.
Third, people cannot be separated from people, and they cannot become people
In addition to the unclear monetization model, another major problem that virtual idols need to face at present is that they cannot get rid of the influence of real people for the time being, and it is difficult to attract more fans with their real people' characteristics.
Most virtual idols are still determined by the operation team behind them and the people inside. For example, the first virtual idol from Japan, the character is set to learn from the artificial intelligence, so in the early stages often show a stupid cute state, attracting many fans.
But in fact, the source of the silly sound is the voice actor Kasuga, and the action is made by the 3D model controlled by the professional after being captured by the real person.
Xiao Yang, who has just appeared on Hunan Satellite TV's "Hello, Saturday", was also posted on the official website by its cooperative company Leyard on the official website of the action capture process, the data transmission method of the scene, and the action actors behind it.
Xiao Yang in the host and the motion catcher in the background Photo/Leyard official website
The virtual idols who are inseparable from the middle people and the production team, although they wear a shell, basically avoid the moral collapse risk. However, they still cannot escape the scrutiny of different angles by complex fan groups, and it is difficult to achieve true "never collapse".
In communities where virtual idol fans such as Tieba gather, despite the suspicion of privacy violations, there are still many fans who cannot distinguish between the shell of the idol and the person in the middle, and are keen to "pick the skin" of the middle person of the virtual idol.
VirtuaReal's virtual idol, Roy Roi, has been pulled out of the middle of the marriage, and some fans have been depowdered. Members of A-Soul also often face various speculations, and Xiang Wan, Bella, and Jiaran were once all linked to unproven middle people by fans, and were questioned about love, marriage, and excessive age.
In addition, the will, preferences, and positions of the production team are often projected onto the behavior of virtual idols. Since the virtual idol needs to transmit the picture in real time when it is live, once the principle of the production team is missphound due to the problem of the production team, the idol basically has no chance to remedy.
In 2020, two virtual idols under Hololive, Akai Shin and Kiryu Coco, made erroneous statements about the Taiwan issue in the live broadcast. This is suspected by many fans that the production team from Japan is doing something in it, deliberately "disgusting domestic fans". In the end, the incident ended with Hololive's virtual idols withdrawing from the domestic market.
Virtual idols are inseparable from people, and are destined to reduce the risks that some real idols will have, but they cannot completely avoid risks.
Compared with live idols, virtual idols cannot achieve some behaviors that real people can do, so it is difficult to be accepted by some live idol fans.
Zhong Liang is a big fan of singers from Taiwan and has watched concerts across dozens of provinces and cities. But when I sent him a video of the holographic concert of virtual idol Luo Tianyi and asked him if he could accept watching such a concert on the spot, it was not surprising that he received a negative answer.
In Zhong Liang's view, it is "incomprehensible" to spend a lot of money to watch a projection concert that lacks real human interaction.
He has spent a lot of money to buy infield tickets, rushed to the front row to get many photos and handshakes when the singer came off, and did not shout Encore with the audience to get timely feedback from the singer. But in virtual idol concerts, these are almost impossible to reproduce.
Another live idol fan, Shen Yining, also told me that he had "no feelings at all" about virtual idols.
He is the push of a member of SNH48, and usually participates in various activities such as theater performances, handshake meetings, cold dinner parties, and occasionally goes to the airport to pick up, which is considered to be "watching her grow up".
Shen Yining looked at the ticket purchase records of the performance
In his mouth, the member had a good memory, and would make some special jokes with him later when the handshake would respond. Cakes can be shared during cold meals, and members receive careful handwritten greeting cards on their birthdays. In contrast, virtual idols cannot have such a good correspondence, and the setting that does not grow old is also very uninteresting from the perspective of the "cultivation system".
It is inseparable from people, but it cannot become people. Being able to avoid some risks but not completely avoiding them, being able to meet some needs but not being able to do everything, is a major embarrassment that virtual idols cannot escape at present.
Fourth, write at the end
At a time when real idols are in turmoil one after another, the existence of virtual idols does have its value.
But in addition to the natural advantage of "low risk of collapse", which comes with virtual images, other values of virtual idols come more from the space given by real idols in recent years.
The virtual idols such as Qihai are attractive liveliness and directness, in fact, the real celebrities who expressed their chests on Weibo decades ago are not spared. However, when the real human star is puppetized and becomes like a cookie-cutter dummy, people miss their personality and liveliness, and the virtual idols fill this gap under the protection of the safe shell.
In addition to filling this demand, the monetization mode and application scenarios of virtual idols still need to be further explored. Its greatest value still lies in the live broadcast of the platform for instant interaction of the main language, as well as the relatively safe and reliable brand endorsement.
As for the form of physical interaction such as concerts and meet-ups, with the current technical level of virtual idols, it is not possible to complete it well for the time being. But even with the advancement of follow-up technology, it is difficult for virtual idols to bring fans the same experience as real people.
Therefore, for the far-immature virtual idol industry, it may be a more practical expectation to replace the real idol in some scenes and meet the diversified needs of the live idol in parallel with the real idol, rather than completely replacing it.
Resources:
- Head Leopard Research Institute, "The Metaverse Is Coming, Can Virtual Idols Seize the Opportunity?" 》
- East-West Entertainment "The Battle of the Internet Giants Behind Virtual Idols"
- Beijing News "Meta-universe "guide"? Virtual Idol Million Cost Dilemma to Be Solved"
- DoNews, "Giant 'Mass-Produced' Virtual Idols, Piled Up "Mirages" in Spring"
- Fengrui Capital "Create virtual idols, those pits and sills"
*All characters in this article are pseudonyms.
Author: Zero Nine, Editor: Zhao; WeChat public account: Parity Pie
This article was originally published by @Parity Andy, everyone is a product manager, and reproduction without permission is prohibited.
The title image is from Unsplash, based on the CC0 protocol.