(Translator's note: The author of this article is CBS Sports journalist Sam Quinn, and the content of this article does not represent the views of the translator.) ）
The four teams will have a huge impact in next month's NBA trade.
People are very panicked about the impact of the playoffs on the NBA's trading deadlines. Even the bottom teams will benefit from a reconstitution of the ambitions, and two additional pseudo-playoff spots will inevitably prompt the rat-eyed bosses to chase the victory... Because home tickets to the playoffs will make millions of dollars. As of Tuesday, there were only two teams in the West (the Houston Rockets and oklahoma Thunder) more than two wins behind 10th place, while there were four such teams in the East, one of which was the Atlanta Hawks, and despite the Reddish trade, they didn't have to compete for a play-off spot.
As a result, the number of sellers has been artificially reduced by the approaching Feb. 10 deadline, but that doesn't mean there are many buyers. As we've reported, the vast majority of competitive NBA teams have been limited in giving up draft picks to improve the mid-season lineup. Currently, the Memphis Grizzlies are the only team to rank high and have complete free draft picks. All the other teams are at least partially locked up by the Stephen Rule (one team can't trade their own first-round picks for 2 consecutive years).
Logically, in a season that lacks interested sellers and flexible buyers, deal deadlines are very boring. That's not how the modern NBA works. There will be big moves before the deadline, because there are big moves before every deadline. This time it is only up to a few teams to drive this trading market, as they have unique conditions to drive trading within this particular timeframe. These four teams stand out as the teams with a say in the mid-season trading market.
Chicago Bulls
As the current No. 1 seed in the East this season, few buyers have such a strong maneuvering power before the deadline as they do. Why? Consider the hottest commodity in the trading market: the versatile scoring striker. Grant and Barnes could be traded, and Covington certainly could. If a team wants to do a big job, T.J. Warren can also be acquired at a reasonable price. Marcus Morris as a rare player type is also an option. Every team wants these players, but few have enough trading chips to offer, depending on what price tag the team can offer.
The Draft assets offered by the Lakers, Jazz, Nets, Mavericks, Nuggets and Heat are extremely limited, and most sellers aren't particularly interested in first-round picks in five or six years. Phoenix has more flexibility in terms of draft picks, and if it really wants to trade, it can basically dispose of the first-round picks for 2024, 2026 and 2028, but how much is the Suns' draft pick worth? If Booker, Ayton and Bridges stay with the Suns for a long time, these draft picks are likely to be in their twenties. Arguably, talented players in the NBA's most important positions far outweigh the ability of most buyers in the league to pay. Except for the Bulls.
Chicago had hoped that Williams, the fourth pick in 2020, would fill the gap as a striker and eventually grow into LaVine's partner. The Bulls' hopes for the former were dashed as he received a season reimbursement for wrist surgery. Their hopes for the latter are very strong, but it's worth asking how Chicago should evaluate its future compared to the bright and infinite present. The Bulls are currently the number one seed in the League East. Durant will miss the Nets' game for 4-6 weeks with a knee injury, and Irving is still unable to play at home. The Bucks don't know when Lopez will get back to health. The Bulls may never have a better chance than this season, a chance to make it straight to the NBA Finals. Vucevic is 31 and DeRozan is 32. Opportunities don't always come.
A major upgrade to the starting position currently occupied by Jawant Green is the perfect time for them to seize this opportunity and claim the 2022 championship. Williams isn't just a ticket to their upgrade, it's the only biggest player any seller can buy. Bulls are in a unique position in some way, and as a buyer, they are almost able to choose their own seller. They don't need to convince the Pistons to trade Grant or the Kings to trade Barnes. It's up to those teams to convince the Bulls that williams should trade Williams, even though he underwent surgery at the end of the season, but he did so well last season that no other buyer held such a valuable trading chip.
The Bulls may be able to bypass the traditional buying and selling model entirely with chips like Williams. For example, is it worth giving the Raptors a call to see if they can trade the hot Siakam? He has certainly been in trade rumours in the past, with Williams, 20, younger and better suited to develop with Anunoby and Barnes than Siakam, 27. Toronto may not be interested in selling its revived All-Stars, but it's a decision worth making because Williams offers a valuable asset. Toronto ended in defeat last season, with Masay Ujjari always prioritizing the long-term health of his team.
Until the Bulls make a decision against Williams, the Pistons and Kings won't trade Grant or Barnes. If the Bulls send their best young players, they even have reason to ask for additional assets. Other teams in the NBA are desperately hoping that the Bulls will keep Williams, not only to avoid the Bulls becoming a more dangerous championship-contending team, but also to keep the price tag for the forwards within a more reasonable level.
Indiana Walkers and Portland Trail Blazers
As far as sellers are concerned, the quantity may be limited, but this deal deadline makes up for it in terms of quality. The Indiana Pacers and Portland Trail Blazers have almost all types of players, and they may also buy players that other teams want. Sabonis, Turner and Nurkic can defend almost any area in the centre position. Covington is a coveted 3D player, though he's more of an assist-type defensive player. Warren is a lottery ticket. Powell is a three-pointer-dominant outside scorer, and LeVert is an outside scorer who plays mainly in mid-range shots. From now until the trading deadline, there is a real supergiant , Lillard can be traded, but the chances are very slim. But in theory, buyers can get anything they might need on the exchange market. Even if it's only concentrated on a handful of sellers.
But in fact, the number of sellers is so small that the two teams have too much initiative over the larger number of sellers. For example, a team interested in a center forward cannot use a team with Turner and Sabonis to tie each other back, because the two players are on the same team. Both teams are also quite rare among sellers, as they both have grand fantasies... Or at least full fantasy. When Orlando traded half of its main players last season, it would only trade draft picks and young players.
There isn't much evidence that these teams will prioritize the same things. Even without a long-term general manager, Portland still seems desperate to build a championship lineup with Lillard at its core. Walkers never swing bad. They've all made the playoffs since 1989 except for seven seasons. That's the stats the team is proud of. It may not particularly build an effective long-term lineup, but the Indiana Pacers may prefer to regroup rather than rebuild. The Trailblazers seem to be in the same boat as the Pacers.
This puts the championship-contending team in a rather interesting position. Are they willing to sacrifice their core players to upgrade the squad rather than in exchange for the draft? If these teams have to give up their existing assets to get them, will other teams see players sold by Indiana and Portland as major upgrades? These are all philosophical questions, and each team has different answers, but this creates an unusual atmosphere for the trading market. Generally speaking, the trading chips that close a deal at this time of year may not work in 2022.
Oklahoma Thunder
People are used to hearing Sam Presti's name on the deal deadline because he has 17 first-round picks in the next seven years of the draft, and once he decides to let his young Thunder win, he has the ability to buy any veteran at a higher price than any buyer. That could last a year or two, but Oklahoma wields a very different kind of power with a 2022 deal deadline. Oklahoma is essentially a banker of the Union. Consider the following:
Oklahoma City has the ability to create about $34 million in salary space.
We need to state that they can create the salary space mentioned above and not already own it, as the Thunder have chosen to stay above the salary cap to keep their trading exceptions. In terms of deadlines, that means the Thunder have two fairly large trade exceptions (one $12.8 million and the other $8 million) that they can actually not use without exceeding the salary cap.
Regardless of the Thunder's status as a team that theoretically rises above the salary cap, they are still more than $22 million below the league's $101 million salary floor. They don't have to hit that number because teams can choose to make up the difference by allocating it to players already on their big roster, but it's much cheaper to trade before the deadline. When a team acquires a player in the middle of the season, his salary for the entire season is credited to the salary cap... But they only have to pay players money on contracts that weren't paid by the original team. Smaller teams often use this trick to save money, and after years of going through the hell of extravagant taxes, you can bet the Thunder are saving as much money as possible.
For quite some time, the under-salary cap scenario will be Oklahoma City's final year, as Alexander's top-salary contract will take effect next season. In other words, for the Thunder, either use it or lose it.
The Thunder tend not to be stingy when it comes to giving up players to make room. This makes them an ideal facilitator for unbalanced trades, as few teams have slots to recruit players. The Thunder already have a slot.
That financial flexibility basically allows the Thunder to do whatever they want before the deadline, no matter how crazy. Heck, if they want to (and they don't), they're the only team in the NBA that can reasonably absorb Russell-Westbrook's contract.
At the very least, there are a few teams that will surely call before the bell rings on Feb. 10. For example, Boston and Portland will certainly try to evade the luxury tax when possible, and the Thunder are their best bet for doing so. Don't be surprised when Oklahoma City profits in the process. The Lakers are another possible victim. Their unusual salary structure has only two players (Tucker and Nunn) who are paid above the base salary but below the top salary, which means that if they want to match the salary, they will almost certainly have to catch up with one or two of the base salary players. Someone needs to absorb these contracts, and most likely the Thunder.
But Sam Presti is a big hunter, and you can bet he could sneak up on any major deal between now and February. Even if he doesn't trade any stars, he'll happily charge some poor, unsuspecting general managers one or two draft picks to get the privilege of doing so themselves. In the next seven years of the draft, Oklahoma City already has 17 first-round picks. Don't be surprised if the Thunder get their 18th first-round pick in the coming weeks.
By Sam Quinn
Compilation: Poetic