Although the NBA contract is big, it really has the ability to shake the pattern

Let's start with Lillard.

Starting in the summer of '21, when it comes to trading markets, you always have to take a look at Portland. Lillard has been here for some years, and the situation has changed for so many years, except for the Warriors Iron Triangle, there are only two Blazers and Wizards in the league who have not changed their banner. The Blazers made a set of combinations that they knew were impossible to succeed at a glance, and then dived all the way to get the probe under the leadership of Billups. OK, Double Gun 2.0 trial and error completed. Portland seems to be even worse, but in fact it has accumulated assets and completed the accumulation. What's more, they welcomed back Lillard's version of the defiance.

In 2027, 37-year-old Lillard will take 63.2 million, which may seem like a ghost story, but you don't need to worry about it so far at the moment. The Blazers failed to make the playoffs and all but disappeared from the watchlist in the second half of the season, so many people failed to notice that Lillard secretly made the league's top 3 game impact. He's still the terrifying killer, reminiscent of his 55-point playoff — who is the opponent? This is the test center. The Blazers should be relieved for the time being, Lillard in the 21-22 season was just an accident due to injuries, and he is still at his peak.

Lillard has already signed all the big contracts predictable, and there is no need to think about money. If Lillard were to start over with a championship team now, he wouldn't have lost much money in his entire career. Lillard did not say that he had to win the championship, and he was sober about the price of leaving the team, after all, he had set up a flag, and he was afraid that he could not be aggressive to the management. Portland has long locked up draft picks until 2028, and the attitude is also clear - we rely on salary and feelings to retain people, sacrificing the team's future This kind of operation we can't afford to play, this has to be picked out with you first.

Lillard didn't get up at the time, at least because he was prepared to stay in Portland and not be able to compete for the championship — of course, if the plan was to get a big contract first and then find a way out, that's another matter, but at least so far, Leigh wasn't that kind of person.

Things have changed a bit. Even without using future draft picks, the Blazers have some young assets that can be used to make up for them, they have the No. 3 pick, Anfini Simmons ($24.1 million next season, contract until 2026), and Sharp. Compared with the original abandonment of CJ and Powell's operation of tearing down the east wall to make up for the western wall, the improvement of this wave of young assets in hand into immediate combat power is undoubtedly greater. The Blazers also have a chance to use this wave of operations to completely break away from the deformed two-gun model, and if they still build around Lillard, there seems to be no reason not to make a trade.

Conversely, if the Blazers want to rebuild completely, they can also pull back at any time. Their first-round pick for the Bulls was lottery protection that lasted for years, the initiative was entirely on their side, and their assets were not worried about shooting in the middle of the season.

The draft is the first pivotal juncture, and if the Blazers send away their No. 3 pick, other teams won't need to worry about Lillard for the time being. The team that wants the Trail Blazers' No. 3 pick is indispensable, and the key here is the Raptors and Wizards.

The Raptors and the Wizards, two teams that have always been rotten and not serious, hold awkward picks (Raptors No. 13 pick, Wizards No. 8 pick), and next year's first-round pick is not entirely in their own hands (the Raptors gave the 24-year first round to the Spurs in the Poeltl trade, the first 6 picks are protected, and the Wizards are in the hands of the Knicks next year, with the first 12 picks protected). Of course, if the Raptors have no bottom line, they have a good chance of keeping the first round, and the Wizards will not lose this pick as long as they do not pursue the playoffs. But for the draft pick of these two teams, I always have a kind of... Ominous premonition:

In recent years, the Raptors have always done some "anti-public opinion" operations before the deal deadline, and when people think they will become sellers, they prefer to become buyers. And with the Raptors' lineup base, without sending away the two key puzzles, it's hard to imagine that this gang can be rotten without a bottom line;

Well, you can try to recall the draft pick of the Wizards after Wall/Beal/Porter. They jumped back and forth between the last train of the playoffs and just couldn't make the playoffs, using the 15th and 9th picks one by one to deliver the "four unlike" forward puzzle to the whole league. If the Wizards hadn't overturned it completely, I bet they would still be this story.

If the Raptors and Wizards rebuild their hearts, they should always send away some core players this time and seek a trade that anchors this year's top pick in the first round to give them a good starting point when they enter the so-called "swing rot." Since the Spurs hang up everything about Venbanyama and the Hornets have a younger core and a greater tendency to keep the top pick or trade the list for young stars, then the Raptors and Wizards naturally have the most opportunity to go in the Blazers.

We may not see Lillard, Beal and Siakam in the market at the same time, because the Blazers, Raptors and Wizards, the three royal families of the "want to tear down" world, will not have a wave of internal digestion:

The Blazers have the No. 3 pick needed by the Raptors and Wizards;

The Raptors and Wizards have the forward (Sika, OG) and interior (Boshen) that the Blazers need.

It's hard to imagine the Raptors and Wizards doing a reverse recruitment to poach Lillard, and if the Blazers bring in the Beal group of 90 million ultimate double guns to complete the highest achievement of this track, I can only say that I can't rule out the possibility, but the picture is too beautiful for me to see. If the trade happens between three teams, the biggest chance is for the Blazers to absorb the frontcourt essence of one of the Raptors/Wizards to complete the combination and then continue to build the team around Lillard. And no matter if the trade takes place between the Blazers/Raptors and the Blazers/Wizards, Lillard will not leave, so Beal's position in the market is solid.

OK, Bill's contract sucks, why is he so popular in the market?

First, there are limited options on the market today.

In terms of free agency, playoff teams generally lack undercap space and are difficult to participate, only the Lakers and Kings, who give up multiple bird rights, have the potential to operate under the cap, but cannot directly open a top salary in free market.

There aren't many top backcourt scorers to chase on free agency. In free agency this year, the only backcourt with higher levels than Beal are Irving and Harden. The former left the Nets for money, and he stayed with the Lone Rangers to sign the biggest contract. The situation of the latter is more complicated, with the possibility of staying in the team, executing player options being traded, jumping out of the contract back to the Rockets, and jumping out of the contract to seek a sign.

In fact, there are plenty of teams considering Harden's rumors, but if Harden is the only big-name backcourt scorer to pursue in free agency (the next level is VanVleet, Russell, Reeves, and none of them reach the second-point level), then it makes sense that the management of each team is more focused on the trade market. In addition to Lillard and Bill, the people they can wait for include:

The Bulls announced a self-detonation and DeRozan and LaVine entered the market. Azan's cost-effective expiring contract will be sought after, but he is older, less compatible without the ball, and there are doubts about how to renew the contract, and the pursuit of him is more suitable for short-term considerations for a season. LaVine's contract is a little better than Bill's, but LaVine expects the transaction price to be higher, and the actual combat power provided may not be. If buyers are patient, they can indeed wait for the bull's side to move, which will come at some opportunity cost;

Jaylen Brown's potential runaway. There is no indication that the Greens will send Brown, and the Greens are more likely to seek an upward trade after sending Brown, and Brown will later ask for a contract that is extremely cost-effective for the next family. Brown is not the kind of player who can change the game, and his contract is just another ghost story after Beal and LaVine.

A horizontal comparison will show that none of the backcourt reinforcement opportunities you can consider will be perfect. Bill is one of many imperfect answers, and the biggest advantage of this answer now is that he has a chance to get it and is at a low point in value.

There are three flaws on Bill's side:

First, the contract is too big. Beal will be paid $46.7 million next season and his contract runs until the summer of 2026. There is a player option, and if executed, the salary for the 26-27 season is 57.1 million;

Second, two nasty riders, trade veto power, 15% trading margin;

Third, in the past two years, minor injuries and illnesses have continued, and after competing for the scoring championship season, the two seasons have only played a total of 90 games.

These three flaws will make the next family daunting, but it is precisely because of these flaws that Bill is "cheap" enough, and there are some bizarre offer rumors, such as Paul + Shamet. With the Suns simply not being able to compensate for the first-round picks, what's the value of putting these two contracts together?

I don't believe that the Wizards are braindead enough to agree to such an offer, but if someone dares to pass on such an offer, it reflects that Bill's operation in the market is a bit turbulent. The contract that the Wizards signed with Bill at that time was indeed "humiliating", and all possible preferential terms were added to Bill. But if you think about it, Bill is not yet 30 years old, less than 34 years old in the final year of his contract, he is basically at the peak of the contract period, his contract is already close to 35% salary cap, and it also makes the trading margin look less deadly. The value of this contract actually has a chance to be saved.

Instead of rushing to deal with Beal, wait for the draft and see what's going on the Blazers' side. If the Trail Blazer 3 signing is sent out, or even in their own hands, then buyers in the market will be more sincere in negotiating with the Wizards. The current suitors, the chips they can take out after Bill are probably this:

Heat: Dunroe, Lowry/Hilo, No. 18 pick, other;

Green Army: two of several defenders, pull three;

Warriors: From the perspective of salary structure, the main body is unlikely to be Poole, but more likely to be Tangshen + rookie (if this step is really taken, the potential transaction size may be larger, more on that later);

Kings: Hult and Holmes as the main body, give up Barnes bird rights or bind multiple rotations, add young assets and-or draft picks;

Sun: Ayton as the main body;

Nets: can be posed in a variety of positions;

Knicks: Can be posed;

Lakeboat: If Paul + Shamet can quote chips, then Lakeboat can't ask for a price. But there is no claim that they are interested in Bill at the moment;

Bucks: Basically not;

76ers: Not necessary.

Of these suitors, the most understandable team is the Heat. They came to the gate of the championship, Butler was not young and the window was tight. The Heat are still close to reaching the top with a more reliable 3D for the position of blocker and power forward, and have consolidated several contracts with close functionality into Beal, slightly closer to precision reinforcement.

Then there's the Knicks and the Kings, both of whom aim to change change, one to solve the problem of the main attacker outside of the Bronson in the playoffs, and the other to achieve a No. 2 upgrade.

And then there's the Green Army and the Warriors. The Greens' rationality stems more from Beal's relationship with Tatum, and in a situation where the veto of a trade is held and the other is the team boss, if the two have to play together, other contenders will be sidelined. The Warriors need a qualified second lead attacker, a ball carrier who can lead the transition, and Beal can play that role. But compared to other competitors, the Warriors core is older, and if the Warriors really trade Tang God for Beal, it means that they have just been released from a $40 million contract and fell into a larger set. This contract has a veto power of deal, and it will be difficult to turn around in the future.

As for the sun chasing Bill, there is some performance art. The Nets' intention is that they don't want to waste the transition period that can't be put on after stud, and they are willing to try if they can trade Simmons for a more playable contract.

You also understand why the Wizards are afraid of Lillard entering the market - among suitors, the Miami Heat, who rank first in terms of reasonableness, in the case of Lillard in the market, they can't not try this side first - to win the Nuggets, your best bet is to have Curry or Lillard and go back.

So, how many chips do you need to trade for Lillard?

Bill Simmons recently gave a list of trade values in his mind, with Lillard at No. 25 and No. 23 player being Mitchell. This ranking table is just Bill Simmons' personal opinion, and the reference is a bit meaningful. But given the age and value for money for the contract, Lillard's trade value is slightly lower than Mitchell's, which I think is a reasonable expectation. The chips the Cavaliers paid out in the Mitchell trade last year were:

25, 27, 29 years unprotected first round;

26, 28 years first round swap rights;

Abaki (rookie with 14 picks in 22), Markkanen, Sexton.

3 unprotected first-rounders, 2 first-round swaps, 1 rookie, 2 available young rotations (Macca was not at the current level at the time). So, can the Heat come up with chips at this level now?

The answer is, slightly inferior, but close — the Heat can give up to 3 first-rounders, 3 first-round swaps, and Hilo, Dunro, Jovic. If the Heat fight, they can indeed go and smash Lillard.

The Warriors, Kings, and Knicks will not be interested in Lillard, and the Suns and Lake Ships cannot afford to exchange Lillard. The Greens and Nets are interested and capable, and they are also the front-row Bill signing buyers.

What happens on Draft Day will have a big impact on the subsequent plot development in the summer. How Lillard chooses, whether the Blazers become a buyer or "a sister buys, you have to take one", determines not only their own future, but also the opportunities of multiple teams, and even the competitive landscape next season.

Lillard held back for 2 summers, and Bill's boot didn't fall off. The Blazers don't seem to be sending Lillard away, but objectively speaking, this may be the best opportunity for Lillard to come out and compete for the championship. The Wizards also finally survived to the lowest point of Beal's trade value, putting him on the market at the most inopportune time. I don't know what they'll switch back to, but they really have to be more resolute this time than they always have to go up and down.