After Moutai's "double 100 billion", the single-quarter performance hit a new high!

As the deadline for the disclosure of the first quarterly report is approaching, more and more wine companies have released the first quarter of 2024.

In the context of the orderly progress of the Spring Festival payment, the firm and slight increase in the batch price of liquor, and the slight decrease in inventory month-on-month, the leading liquor company maintained a steady growth trend in the first quarter of this year; the performance differentiation of sub-high-end brands was obvious;

The performance of leading wine companies remained stable

Kweichow Moutai, which will achieve "double 100 billion" in total revenue and total profit for the first time in 2023, will hand over a brilliant report card in the first quarter of 2024, with a total revenue of more than 46 billion yuan and a total profit of more than 33 billion yuan for the first time in history, running the "first stick" in 2024.

On the evening of April 26, Kweichow Moutai announced its financial report for the first quarter of 2024. From January to March 2024, Kweichow Moutai achieved a total operating income of 46.485 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.04%. The total profit was 33.174 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.59%. The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 24.065 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.73%, which exceeded the scheduled annual target growth.

According to the first quarterly report released by Shanxi Fenjiu, in the first quarter of 2024, the company achieved operating income of 15.338 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.94%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 6.262 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.95%.

At present, Fenjiu is mainly working on the three major brands of Fenjiu, Zhuyeqing and Xinghuacun. On the one hand, Fenjiu is led by the blue and white series, implements the strategy of large single products, and actively lays out the high-end market. In recent years, Fenjiu has taken Qinghua 20 as the development benchmark to improve the grade and scale of Qinghua 30 and Qinghua 40 products, and promoted a major breakthrough in the market share of Qinghua Fenjiu's full range of products.

China Securities Construction Investment believes that in 2024, on the product side, the company will increase the investment of Bofen in the cultivation market of fragrant liquor, continue to create a consumption atmosphere of fragrant liquor, and Bofen in the mature market of fragrant liquor will focus on stabilizing the quantity and continue to improve the product structure; second, Qinghua 20, as a single product of 10 billion, must make greater breakthroughs "quickly and well"; third, Qinghua 30 and above products should form a trinity model of "human resources, material resources, and spiritual culture", and explore and create a culture that conforms to high-quality life scenes. A successful model for the development of consumer culture. On the market side, we will continue to optimize the market layout and continue to further promote the national market expansion of Fenjiu's "1357+10". The company has two starting points of productization and nationalization, with clear development ideas, insisting on being higher and stronger in products, actively expanding in the region, and continuing to be optimistic about the company's future.

The performance of sub-high-end brands is significantly differentiated

There are more competitors of sub-high-end liquor than high-end liquor, but they are basically dominated by regional leaders or national famous liquor enterprises, and the performance differentiation is obvious.

According to the first quarterly report of Shede Liquor, the company achieved operating income of 2.105 billion yuan in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 4.13%, and a net profit of 550 million yuan, a slight decrease. It is reported that the company's net profit has declined, mainly due to the counter-cyclical increase in production and capacity expansion of Shede Liquor, and the pre-emptive increase in product research and development and regional market cultivation, and the effect is delayed, resulting in short-term pressure on profits.

Guotai Junan believes that the liquor industry has entered the second half of the inventory cycle, and the next high-end price demand at this stage may show an "L" shaped performance, and the internal competitive pressure on the track continues to increase.

According to the first quarterly report of Yingjiagongjiu, the revenue in the first quarter of 2024 will be about 2.325 billion yuan, an increase of 21.33% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies will be about 913 million yuan, an increase of 30.43% year-on-year.

By focusing on the core markets of Anhui, Jiangsu and Shanghai, the markets inside and outside the province are expected to grow synchronously, and the double-digit growth target of operating performance has been successfully achieved.

In the first quarter, Jinhui Liquor achieved revenue of 1.076 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.41%, and net profit attributable to the parent company was 221 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.58%.

Jinhui Liquor said that the main reason for the increase in revenue is that the company has continuously optimized its marketing strategy, gradually strengthened its brand influence, continuously optimized its product structure, expanded its market area, and promoted sales growth.

According to Shuijingfang's quarterly report, the operating income in the first quarter of 2024 was 933 million yuan, an increase of 9.38% over the same period of the previous year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 186 million yuan, an increase of 16.82% over the same period of the previous year. Founder Securities believes that Shuijingfang strictly implements the "three major strategies", makes efforts to upgrade and innovate products, high-end brands, and makes marketing breakthroughs. With the implementation of the Qionglai project in the future and the in-depth implementation of the "three major strategies", the company is expected to rise in volume and price.

The high-end of liquor will continue

In recent years, the liquor industry is still in a structural boom, but there has been a backlog of channel operation space, distributors and terminal profits, and the degree of involution of distributors has increased. Under the trend of "drinking good wine", many analysts believe that there is still significant room for growth in the high-end of China's alcohol.

According to the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to March this year, the liquor output of enterprises above designated size was 1.256 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 6%, of which the liquor output of enterprises above designated size in March was 432,000 kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%.

CITIC Securities believes that the product is still the most basic element for liquor companies to break through to the high-end, and the brand power based on products and channels is where the vitality of liquor companies lies. Under the current trend, wine companies need to get closer to consumers and actively respond to channel and consumer changes: adapt to the more competitive ecology in traditional sales channels, do a good job in price management and channel digitalization, seize the opportunity to diversify distributors in online and new retail channels, influence young consumers with the help of online platforms, continue to invest in cultivating consumer groups in group buying channels, and enhance consumers' awareness of brands through the setting of offline consumption scenarios.

According to the research point of view of Western Securities, the liquor industry has gradually shifted from the extensive business model of the past to refined operation and management, and the leading liquor companies have continued to improve in corporate governance, brand building, channel management, consumer cultivation, etc., and their ability to resist risks has been greatly improved, and the moat has been continuously deepened. Leading wine companies empower the entire industry chain through digitalization, effectively solve the problem of data aggregation in all aspects of production, supply and marketing, strengthen channel control, and regain control over costs. To strengthen the construction of terminals, firstly, the forms are more diverse, and secondly, the operation emphasizes the empowerment to build a community of interests, and the operation is more refined.

Western Securities believes that in 2024, the liquor industry will still be in the destocking cycle, and on the scene side, the basic plate of banquets and gatherings will be more resilient, and business banquets will follow economic fluctuations. On the whole, the characteristics of the industry stock era are becoming more and more distinct, and famous and high-quality wine companies with strong strategic determination, brand power and execution are easier to win.

Editor-in-charge: Ye Shuyun

Proofreader: Li Lingfeng

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