The Lone Ranger becomes the biggest winner of draft night The Blazers are ready for Lillard's departure
Originally compiled from: The Athletic
Written by John Hollinger
原标题：Hollinger’s NBA Draft takeaways: Kings’ cap room, Dallas’ deals, Damian Lillard dilemma and more
The process and results of this year's draft were mediocre, right?
In the three days leading up to the NBA Draft, all the trades happened, all the talk that lotto picks would play a role in the trade market didn't really materialize, and no one did anything truly crazy on draft night. Of course, there were one or two accidents in the evening, a big landslide and the election of the usual mysterious European players. But all in all, it was one of the most bland draft nights in my memory. Overall, the vast majority of players were elected within their expected picks.
However, this does not mean that the draft is over without a story. In particular, several events have happened that will set the stage for the upcoming free agent market on June 30 at 6 p.m., when teams can start negotiating with other teams' free agents.
Let's take a look at some of the changes and the most important things going:
Sacramento still has room for a salary cap
Of all the things that are unknown on draft night, I think it's the most important. The King signed Holmes and No. 24 to the Lone Rangers in exchange for a trade exception that the Mavericks received from the Thunder trade.
If the Kings give up Harrison Barnes, Alex Lane, Metu, Matthews Dellavedova and Terence Davis, give up Kessler Edwards' team option and give up P.J. Dozier, the deal would make the Kings a free-market tycoon with an estimated salary margin of $34 million. They could get another $2 million in space by giving up Lyles, but his contract amount is already low and he might be worth keeping if possible.
Of course, these are worth noting because of the following:
The Kings desperately need a power forward.
The Kings need to improve their defense.
The owner of the Kings is obsessed with the Warriors system, and he was a minority shareholder of the Golden State Warriors.
Until a year ago, the Kings' head coach was the Warriors' chief assistant coach.
Drummond Green is a free agent.
The Warriors are definitely sweating right now, at least, because there's a very likely competitor in the market right now who wants to get Green. Of course, this isn't the only situation where the Kings pose a threat in the free market. Players like Grant, Kyle Kuzma and Grant Williams could also be potential targets for the Kings, not to mention younger players who fit more into the Kings' schedule, like Cam Johnson in Brooklyn or P. J. Washington in Charlotte. The Pacers and Rockets also have a lot of salary room and are struggling to find a power forward in the market that could soon be a soap opera in the league.
Sacramento could also choose to bring back Barnes and Lyles and get another striker with a $12.4 million mid-range exception and go into next year with a $12 million trade exception for Holmes; However, under the new payroll cap agreement, the middle-class exception can also serve as a trade exception, so the $12 million deal exception is no longer as strong as it used to be.
The future of the trailblazers in the post-Lillard era
Charlotte chose Brandon Miller over Scott Henderson with the second overall pick, putting the Blazers in a good position to determine their own future after several years of chaos.
The Blazers now have a backcourt combination of Henderson and last year's lottery pick Sharp, which puts the Blazers in a very interesting position to face the increasingly vexing dilemma of Damian Lillard's future.
Simply put, Portland is ready. The Blazers no longer have to be afraid of Lillard asking for a trade; In fact, they should actively consider this idea, because his value will not be higher. At the very least, the Blazers should shrug and yawn to deal with any threat from Lillard; Their best chance to compete is in the post-Lillard era, relying on their two teenage talents.
Either way, the collateral damage of signing Henderson could affect Anfini Simmons and Grant. It is widely believed that the Blazers will do whatever it takes to keep Grant to keep the team competitive and prevent Lillard from leaving. Now, is that really that important? The Blazers shouldn't be afraid to sign Grant, but if someone wants to offer Grant a high price (like the Sacramento mentioned above), the Blazers don't need to give in in a bidding war.
Simmons, meanwhile, earns more than $20 million a year as a fourth-back. That's untenable in almost any salary structure, especially with Lillard making $45 million a year, the Blazers don't want to pay taxes, and the team has few big men at the moment.
Draft Night Best of the Game: Dallas Mavericks
I never thought the Mavericks could dump Bertans' contract with two spots in the draft pick and take away a Derek Lively II who was a great fit for them. Getting a replica of Tyson Chandler on a reasonably priced four-year contract where he can catch the ball next to Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving and protect the basket is definitely the best Dallas could do. Shake off junk contracts while strengthening the lineup? Wise.
That speaks to the difference in value between the two deals, with the Lone Ranger dumping a bad contract, only dropping from 10th to 12th, and then eating a similar but smaller contract from Sacramento (Holmes) for the 24th pick. The player chosen, defensive defender Prosper, is also a pretty good choice.
After Bertans was dumped, the Mavericks can now renew Irving's contract at or near top salary, and still have a full non-tax-paying middle-class exception that addresses their apparent lack of depth. Dallas should also have gotten a small trade exception ($5 million) from the Bertans deal. It may be hard for the Lone Rangers to avoid paying taxes, but they've now accomplished something that seemed extremely difficult 24 hours ago.
While I hate to say that, the last week of rotten proved worth it.
A brief analysis of the big slide on draft night
The biggest news of draft night was the slippage of Villanova University forward Cam Whitmore, the third-best player in my mock draft. He ended up with the Houston Rockets in 20th place. Whitmore had previously been a potential candidate for the Rockets' fourth-place pick, but in the final days leading up to the draft, more rumors of a possible Whitmore slip began to emerge.
While talking to sources in the league, I noticed two reasons for the pop-up: First, some teams warned Whitmore about his medical exam due to concerns about his knee. Secondly, his training and interviews disappointed the team seriously. "Groggy" is how one of the sources describes him.
The really interesting part is what really happened when we crossed the 9th pick, over the teams that would have put Whitmore on the shortlist, over the teams that could have poached him out. In particular, when the Magic failed to pick him again with the No. 11 pick, all the teams below them began to wonder: Did they know something we didn't?
This is when risk aversion really comes into play. The big slippage in the draft pick means that even if you don't know anything about a player, you should know that when the team that evaluates the player most closely and has the best draft prospects ends up not being selected, you have to say, "Thank you, but forget it." Sometimes, this may be overstated (maybe this player is the second choice on everyone's draft list). But most of the time, in the months or years after the big landslide, everything becomes obvious.
In this case, you're really wondering why no one thinks it's worth the risk at the time of the draft to bet on potential rewards. For another example, Michael Porter Jr.'s physique is the worst I've ever seen in my rookie, and it wasn't amazing during the interview; In the end, he was elected with the 14th overall pick and became the top star of the championship team.
Whitmore dropped to 20th place, with only a few players with limited advantage leaving the game before him. The 9th pick after Utah includes several attacking goalscorers with the 11th, 12th and 14th picks, the other two small defenders and Jalen Hood-Shifino.
Houston finally decided to take the plunge, which was interesting because the Rockets gathered all the intelligence and homework about Whitmore before the draft, and they had considered selecting him with the fourth overall pick. Some felt he was the Rockets' second choice in that position; Surprisingly, he sat in his position until the 20th pick. Until further insider information, he has been a sought-after item in the draft.
Trading down is better than trading up
While many teams paid exorbitantly for the privilege of rising draft picks — a move that in hindsight is often questionable, no matter how urgent the hot hour of draft day may be — Boston went the other way, adding future picks while dropping just 13 spots.
On their journey from 25th to 38th, the Celtics secured four future signings. If reporting on draft picks is correct, at least two of them are likely to be in their early 30s: the second round in 2025 and the second round in 2026.
The Celtics also picked up the 2027 second round in Atlanta and the 2024 round in Dallas, respectively, as well as Arkansas forward Jordan Walsh. Even he filled the team's strategic need as Boston could sign him as the 14th player in the rotation with the lowest rookie salary and minimize the luxury tax bill that could increase this season. In fact, the difference between Walsh's contract and a regular veteran base-salary contract could end up earning the Celtics slightly less than the second-tier taxes.
As for those teams that traded upwards, the most interesting thing so far is that the Thunder agreed to take on Bertans' up to $33 million junk contract, just to move up from No. 12 to No. 10 and get Carson Wallace. The deal won't be completed until July, when the Thunder's salary space will be apparent, but it's worth noting that Bertans' $16 million salary for the 2024-25 season is small enough, so the Thunder may have salary space left next summer. As for this summer, the Thunder have some decisions to make on their roster, but they're sure they don't have to do anything too big to reach the minimum wage floor.
Also, some of the deals are pretty crazy. In addition to Oklahoma, Charlotte traded No. 34 and No. 39 picks for James Nanaji; Sacramento traded a future second-round trade to Boston only to move up four spots and get Colby Jones; The Lakers jumped from No. 47 to No. 40 in the deal with the Pacers, paying a whopping $4 million. (The Lakers argued: It's Bath money, and Max Lewis probably won't fall to No. 47.) )
I would include Washington on this list, where deals are stranger than mismatched in terms of value. In terms of raw value, handing over the two second-round picks for 2028 from the No. 8 to No. 7 pick is not a bad choice, even if the player selected by the Wizards (Bilal Koulibaly) has a good chance of falling to the No. 8 pick, as the Pacers seem to lock in one of the two power forwards with the No. 7 pick. Washington was afraid that someone would come first and wanted to lock him down; One can argue about the legitimacy of this concern, but this level of effort is not excessive.