From 2021 onwards, there will be an endless stream of news about "the end of the shed reform" and "the old house is no longer demolished". To tell the truth, in the past ten months, many residents of old residential areas and investors who are professional in "Bo demolition" have really been frightened.
Especially after the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development released the "report card" of the 2020 shed reform at the beginning of this year, many experts and scholars have been more firm in the statement of "the end of the shed reform" - the total number of shed reform starts in 2020 is only 2.09 million units, which is 33.8% smaller than that in 2019, and it is nearly 2/3 compared with 6.26 million sets in 2018. Combined with the 2018 National Development and Reform Commission formulated the "three-year shantytown reform plan", and 2020 was just named the "end year" of the three-year shed reform plan. Coupled with the fact that in the past two years, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has repeatedly emphasized that "it is necessary to comprehensively promote the transformation of old urban communities", so many people naturally conclude that by the end of 2020, the shed reform has been successfully completed. What's more, it is even more blunt that in the future, the old houses will not be demolished, and the "demolition of the second generation" will disappear completely.
To be fair, the end of the shed reform will have the greatest impact on two types of people: one is the people who fantasize about eating the demolition benefits, that is, the people who sit and wait for the demolition of the old house to get huge compensation, and then soar overnight; the other is a new type of house speculation group that has been spawned in recent years by the impact of the demolition and the sudden wealth - the speculators who hoard the old and the small "Bo demolition".
Has the shed reform really come to a successful end? The answer is no. First of all, in August and September, the vast majority of cities across the country have successively announced the "start of shed reform in the first half of 2021". Judging from the published information, the shed reform is not over, but is carried out as usual. For example, In Guiyang, in the first half of 2021, 11 shantytown transformation projects were completed, 20 shantytown land conversion land listings, a total of 1.4695 million square meters, 18 successful transfers, a total transaction area of 1.3511 million square meters, and a total of 18.457 billion yuan. The scale of shed reform did not decrease but increased compared with the same period last year. However, judging from the shantytown reform work plan released by the provinces at the beginning of the year, the total number of shantytown reform starts in 2021 is likely to continue to decline compared with the previous year. Experts expect that the total number of shed reform starts in 2021 will not exceed 2 million units. In other words, although the shed reform in 2021 is not over, the scale will shrink;
Secondly, the national level has been issuing "financial subsidy funds", including special funds for "supporting the construction of shantytown infrastructure in old urban communities". The author checked the data and found that as of now, the National Development and Reform Commission has issued the funds for the affordable housing project of the investment plan within the central budget for the third time this year. According to statistics, nearly 30 billion of them are used to support shed reform. It is not difficult to see that the state not only supports the transformation and demolition of sheds in terms of policy, but also carries out financial subsidies at the same time;
In addition, on September 25, at the "2020/2021 China Urban Planning Annual Conference and 2021 China Urban Planning Academic Season", Huang Yan, vice minister of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, made a speech clearly mentioning that "the habitual acquisition and demolition, land auction and then construction of new houses, this inertial thinking and inertia path is particularly difficult to turn." We are still continuing to follow this path, so we must stop this kind of demolition and construction. "The implication is that the shed reform and demolition are still going on as usual in many cities.
However, judging from Huang Yan's speech, the state has obviously noticed that the past "large-scale demolition and construction" type of shed reform is no longer appropriate. There are mainly four reasons: one is not in line with the path of "low-carbon development" formulated by the state; the second is to continue to dismantle the existing buildings in pieces, and the large-scale increase in the scale of construction will continue to exacerbate the growth pressure of transportation, public services and other facilities in the old city; the third is the large-scale relocation of indigenous residents, destroying the original social structure, and separating the relationship between people, land and culture; fourth, the shed reform has a significant pulling effect on the rise in housing prices, especially in the third and fourth-tier cities, the shantytown reform and demolition has been identified by many experts as the "culprit of the rise in house prices"—— In the past five years, the total number of shed reforms in the country has reached 23 million, of which 19 million are in third- and fourth-tier cities, accounting for more than 75%.
This means that 3/4 of the total amount of funds brought by shed reform has flowed into the property market in third- and fourth-tier cities, and eventually become an important force to promote the rise of house prices. Third- and fourth-tier cities with weak economic strength and mainly population outflows can hardly support the rapid rise of housing prices by relying on their own strength. It is precisely because of the monetization of resettlement and the high leverage of speculators that the property market has this round of false prosperity, and house prices have risen against the trend, and the increase even far exceeds that of many first- and second-tier cities with strong economic strength, significant population growth, and concentration of various high-quality resources. After this round of soaring, the economic income of the vast majority of residents has been seriously disconnected from high housing prices.
The shed reform began in 2009 and has started construction of 47.3 million units today, helping more than 120 million residents move from old and dangerous houses, dilapidated houses and houses with obvious public safety hazards into tall, new and bright third-generation elevator houses. It has thoroughly helped them improve their living environment and fulfilled the "dream of living in peace" for many people, so the transformation and demolition of sheds can be called a major people's heart project and development project in China.
The shed reform in 2021 is not over, and some people say that this is because the task of shed reform in 2020 has not been completed, that is, the time of "the end of shed reform" has been extended to this year. At the end of 2021, the shed reform will be successfully and comprehensively completed. On August 10 this year, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued the "Notice on Preventing Large-scale Demolition and Construction in the Implementation of Urban Renewal Actions (Draft for Comments)", which clearly requires that all localities adhere to the principle of "retention, reform and demolition" in urban renewal actions, focus on retaining and utilizing and upgrading, strictly manage large-scale demolition and construction, strengthen repair and transformation, pay attention to improving functions, and enhance urban vitality.
The official documents of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development have undoubtedly been "hammered out": the future shed reform and demolition will still not end - "retention, reform and demolition" refers to retention, transformation and demolition. In other words, the transformation and demolition of sheds will continue. It is just that in the future, it will be "strictly managed". The potential meaning is to control the scale of shed reform and demolition. The fundamental reason is: on the one hand, large-scale demolition of the old and new, high capital costs, and is not conducive to the stability of the real estate market; on the other hand, after the pilot exploration in the past few years, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has found a more suitable way for the renewal of old urban communities in the future: old reform.
Coincidentally, as early as the national "policy briefing" in 2019, the vice minister of housing and urban-rural development expressed the same view: in the future, we must abandon the rush for quick success and large-scale demolition and construction in urban planning and construction, change the demolition documents of urban construction, pay attention to "embroidery" kung fu, and highlight the transformation of local characteristics and human settlements.
The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has made it clear that from this year onwards, all 20-year-old houses will be disposed of in this way
At the end of 2020, Wang Menghui, minister of housing and urban-rural development, said in a summary report at the press conference of the State Council New Office: From 2021, it is necessary to comprehensively promote the transformation of old urban communities, especially focusing on residential communities built before 2000. That is to say, from this year onwards, the 20-year-old houses must all be given priority to "old reform", rather than blindly carrying out shed reform, demolition and reconstruction. In other words, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has made it clear that from this year, the 20-year-old houses will all take the lead in "old reform", of course, dangerous houses and houses that have been included in the shed reform indicators are exceptions.
What exactly will be changed from the old one? Huang Yan, vice minister of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, has long been clear, mainly three aspects: the first is the basic category, water and electricity network and other infrastructure transformation and replacement; the second is the improvement category, the introduction of property, the construction of parking lots, etc., of course, the most important thing is to install elevators for the old residential areas that meet the conditions; the third is the upgrading category, as the name suggests, is to complete the basic category, the improvement of the old residential area for supporting services, such as the development of urgently needed pension, childcare, meal assistance and other services, effectively improve the living conditions and living environment of the masses.
For the "old reform" of the old community, I believe that many people are not strangers, because in fact, as early as 2019 and 2020, the old reform has been piloted on a large scale across the country. On August 31, at the press conference held by the State Council New Office on "Striving to Realize The Housing of All People", Huang Yan, Vice Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, introduced that from 2019 to 2020, the cumulative number of newly started urban old residential areas in the country was 59,000, benefiting 10.88 million residents. This year, 53,000 old residential areas are planned to be newly renovated, involving more than 9 million residents, and by the end of July, 42,200 communities have been started, involving 7.64 million households, accounting for 78.2% of the entire annual target. Of course, it has to be mentioned that in the next five years, the transformation of 219,000 old urban communities built before the end of 2000 will be basically completed.
Since this year, 4 trillion old houses have been renovated, and 20-year-old houses may appreciate again
In the next 5 years, what is the total amount of investment funds that can be leveraged by the old reform? Can it play the same role as the shed reform in pulling the property market? First of all, industry professionals estimate that the total amount of funds that can be leveraged in 5 years may exceed 4 trillion yuan. In other words, the total consumption and influence driven by the old reform may not be lost to the shantytown reform; secondly, the 4 trillion yuan old reform is difficult to play a significant role in pulling the property market, for two reasons: First, the old reform and the shed reform have an essential difference, the old reform is to create supply, eliminate demand, and promote the stable and healthy development of the property market; second, the old reform has not changed the stock of real estate, and the old reform has not changed the stock of real estate, there is no monetary subsidy, there is no demolition household with money to enter, so it is more conducive to the overall stability of house prices.
But even so, under the 4 trillion old reform, the 20-year-old house may still appreciate in value again, for two reasons: First, after undergoing three major content transformations, the old house will be reborn. Especially in the old residential areas with good basic conditions, the old reform is equivalent to making up for the shortcomings and strengthening the combat effectiveness, especially after the completion of the appearance of the whitewash, the installation of elevators, the introduction of properties, the construction of parking lots, etc., the appearance, environment, supporting facilities, living comforts, etc. of the old residential areas will be greatly improved, which is of great benefit to enhance its market value. On July 16 this year, Jiupai News reported that after the old transformation of a community in Zhongyuan District of Zhengzhou City, the community had a new look, and many residents gave a thumbs up and praised, which was "small transformation" in exchange for "great happiness".
Second, in fact, many old residential areas built together at the end of 2000 were not bad in their own conditions. Taking the old house where the author's parents now live as an example, it is located at the intersection of the first ring road and the second ring road, which is the absolute center of the main urban area, and is surrounded by large commercial complexes, two third-class hospitals, two public central schools, and a developed subway and high-speed rail network. For such a community with complete infrastructure, as long as the old reform upgrades its building itself, the comfort of its living environment is greatly improved, its combat effectiveness is bound to explode, and the market popularity will rise sharply.
In fact, judging from the experience of the old renovation and appreciation of old residential areas in Beijing, Shanghai, Nanjing, Wuhan, Nanchang and other cities, the old residential areas that have completed the transformation will basically usher in appreciation. Especially on the 5th and 6th floors, after the completion of the elevator installation, the appreciation space can reach up to 30%. Even on the 1st and 2nd floors, the appreciation rate remains above 5%. In addition, the survey data of the Shell Research Institute shows that the acceptance and favorability of young people after 80 and 90s to the transformed old residential areas have increased significantly, and 45% of the more than 20,000 netizens interviewed said that they were "considering buying old communities". Especially those old houses with good locations and excellent supporting facilities will be more popular and have greater potential for re-appreciation.
If calculated according to the appreciation rate of 5%-30% after the transformation, the average price of the top 20 cities in the country is 30,000 / flat, so as to calculate, a 100 square meter house, the appreciation potential after the transformation is about 150,000-900,000. There is no doubt that this is a blockbuster good news for the owners of old houses.