At the beginning of 2022, the Kingdom of Tonga, an unknown country in the South Pacific, suddenly broke into the international vision and aroused world attention.
No one expected that it was not a new outbreak that stirred the world first, but the eruption of the submarine volcano on the island of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai in Tongahun.
Around 12:10 p.m. Beijing time on January 15, the shock wave "exploded" at the eruption point of the volcano and spread throughout the Pacific Ocean at a speed close to the speed of sound (1030 km / h). The ash column is about 5 kilometers in diameter and 20 kilometers high, and the huge roar of the volcano when it erupts can be faintly heard even in Alaska, 10,000 kilometers away.
Intense atmospheric gravitational waves have caused global sea level pressure values to fluctuate, and the huge waves generated by the shock waves have spread to the coastal areas of Japan and the United States.
Satellite cloud map
Experts estimate that the level of volcanic eruption in Tonga is Pliny,000, and the estimated VEI (volcanic eruption index, divided into 0 to 8) intensity is 5 to 6, which is the strongest since this century.
Clouds caused by volcanic eruptions
What impact will the eruption of the Tonga volcano have on the world, and what butterfly effect will it bring? All sectors of society have made some predictions.
Global impact
01// Global temperatures are likely to drop
According to Xinhua News Agency, Shane Cronin, a professor at the University of Auckland in New Zealand, said on the 16th that all indications are that the crater of the incident has awakened, and the eruption active period can last for weeks or even years, and it is not clear whether the peak of the eruption has been reached.
A violent volcanic eruption will have a huge impact on the global climate.
Usually, the ash produced by volcanic eruptions is still in the troposphere, but for very strong volcanic eruptions, the ash produced can be washed into the stratosphere. After entering the stratosphere, so₂ in volcanic ash reacts with water vapor to produce a large amount of sulfate aerosol. Combined, the two will have a weakening effect on the sunlight entering the atmosphere, and more solar radiation will be reflected into space, causing global sea level temperatures to drop.
The historic eruption of Mount Tambora in 1815 and the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 both led to a drop in global temperatures the following year.
Fortunately, the eruption is weaker than these, and its climate impact may be temporary. Moreover, this eruption is located in the southern hemisphere, and the direct climate impact on the northern hemisphere is relatively weak.
Still, given the location of the Tonga volcano in an Area of Focus Monitoring for El Niño, it is worth continuing to watch whether the dramatic atmospheric fluctuations generated here will cause a more extreme El Niño or La Niña event.
02// Can cooling curb global warming?
Many people may have a question: If this eruption causes global temperatures to drop, will it help reverse the global warming trend?
Unfortunately, the answer is unlikely.
After the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, some scientists also believed that the trend of global warming was curbed. However, climate observations over the next three decades suggest that while powerful volcanic eruptions have caused a temporary drop in global temperatures, their effects have been difficult to reverse the trend of global warming and rising sea levels.
Although volcanic ash blocks sunlight, it also produces a large number of condensation nuclei, resulting in increased cloud cover, an increased greenhouse effect, and less heat released from the surface into space. So after a brief drop in global temperatures, they quickly recovered.
Taking a step back, if the temperature drop caused by the continuous volcanic eruption really reverses global warming, I am afraid that what awaits mankind is another survival dilemma.
Fundamentally solving the climate problem still requires human beings to think of their own ways, and it is always unrealistic to expect to rely on nature's "self-adjustment" to make the environmental climate just right.
03// The impact on the global economy is limited
Located in the middle of the South Pacific ocean and bordering Fiji to the west, Tonga is made up of more than 170 small islands, has a population of about 105,000 people, and has a GDP of about $463 million in fiscal 2019-2020.
According to Chinese customs statistics, in 2019 before the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, the total trade between China and Tang was 29.57 million US dollars, of which China exported 29.44 million US dollars to Tonga and China imported 130,000 US dollars from Tonga.
"This eruption has a greater impact on the economies of Tonga and the surrounding island countries, but it cannot yet have a serious impact on the global economy." Zhao Shaofeng, a professor at the Pacific Island Research Center of Liaocheng University in Shandong Province, said in an interview with the Global Times reporter on the 16th.
The new crown epidemic and volcanic eruption are undoubtedly worse for Tonga. Pacific island countries such as Tonga and Fiji, which have been heavily dependent on external supplies, are currently experiencing very serious domestic inflation and high unemployment.
However, Tonga is not an important energy source such as crude oil minerals, and its domestic inflation is difficult to spread to the international market.
At the same time, Tonga is located in the Pacific Ocean maritime transport channel is wider, the global shipping position is not as important as Egypt's Suez Canal, coupled with the small population of the Pacific island countries, the food needed is mainly transported by air, so the volcanic eruption in Tonga will not produce a "butterfly effect" or affect the global supply chain for the time being.
However, if the volcanic eruption in Tonga lasts longer and the resulting volcanic ash drifts into a wider area, it is not excluded that it will adversely affect air transport across the Pacific region.
04// The impact on agricultural products will gradually become apparent
The volcanic eruption in Tonga will bear the brunt of the climate impact on southern Australia, southern Brazil, New Zealand, Argentina, Chile and South Africa at the mid- and high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere.
For the soybean industry, the La Niña climate has caused the southwestern region of South America, including southern Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay, to suffer a double blow of dryness and high temperatures, adversely affecting crop growth; the northern region of Brazil has sufficient rainfall, crop growth is good, and even too much rainfall affects yields during the harvest period.
"Futures Daily" analysis said that if the meteorological changes brought about by the volcanic eruption cause La Niña to weaken or end early, or bring more precipitation to South American soybeans that are currently in a dry period, it will help boost production expectations. If this eruption lasts longer, it may lead to an El Niño in the northern hemisphere in the spring and summer of 2022.
Usually, el niño climates tend to give the southern United States a lot of precipitation, and the north is prone to unusually warm winters. El Niño occurs during the planting, flowering and grouting periods of U.S. beans, which helps to increase precipitation, has a positive impact on the flowering and grouting of soybeans, and increases soybean yields.
Some securities market participants have analyzed that the impact of the tsunami in the southern hemisphere on agricultural products may be a medium-term effect, and it is necessary to observe whether it will cause bad weather in the northern hemisphere and lead to a reduction in agricultural production.
05// The "ill-fated" island of Hon Aha Apay
Hong Aha Apay Island, itself an undersea volcano, erupted in 2014-2015 to form a stable island, which soon became home to colorful plants.
On January 19, 2015, a volcanic eruption formed Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Image Source: olcano.si.edu
The new volcanic island shrank rapidly in the first 6 months of its formation, and NASA's research team estimated that the island's "lifespan" would not exceed 6 years.
2014-2017 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcanic island growth process Source: National Geographic Chinese Network
However, the volcanic island slowed down and stabilized, and on December 19, 2021, the Hong Aha Apay submarine volcano erupted again, expanding the island by nearly half. The volcano seemed to have truly calmed down.
The scientists re-estimated and changed their tune – the island's life expectancy increased from 6 years to 26-30 years.
Just when everyone was relieved, on January 15, 2022, the Hong Aha Apay submarine volcano erupted violently, causing more than half of the volcanic island to disappear from land, and all previous estimates by scientists were in vain.
Current situation in Tonga
After the violent eruption of the submarine volcano on Hong Aha Apai Island on the 15th, the capital of Tonga and other places were in a state of power outage, and the communication between the outside world and Tonga was interrupted. A communications company said that Tonga's external communications would take up to 2 weeks to resume.
According to agency France-Presse Beijing time on the 18th, the first local death caused by volcanic eruptions in Tonga has been confirmed, but the degree of damage caused by the eruption is not clear on the 17th local time.
New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said at a press conference on the 16th that Tonga's capital Nuku'alofa was covered with a thick layer of volcanic ash, but the overall situation in the city was safe and stable.
The BBC reported on January 17 that the New Zealand Defence Force has sent maritime patrol aircraft to Tonga for a preliminary impact assessment of the area. The New Zealand Navy's multifunctional vessel, HMS Canterbury, is also on standby and can travel to Tonga to provide support, such as transporting people and supplies, if necessary.
The Global Times reporter contacted Omarph, a Tonga resident living in Auckland, New Zealand, who had lost contact with her relatives in Tonga. She learned from others that Tongan army and reservists had been called up to participate in the rescue operation. At present, the volcano may still erupt again, and the people are in a state of great anxiety.
According to foreign netizens, Tonga's tsunami warning is still being issued, and the whole territory is threatened by tsunamis, heavy rains, floods and strong winds. Some locals said that the volcanic ash spewed out made the water undrinkable and there was poisonous gas in the air.
The international community has expressed concern about the situation in Tonga, and many countries have expressed their willingness to provide relief.
China's position is expressed
According to Zhang Xuanfan, second secretary of the Consul of the Chinese Embassy in Tonga, there are currently about 1,000 overseas Chinese in Tonga, and there are six Chinese-funded enterprises. As of now, the main island, Tongatapu Island no Chinese citizens have died, there are a few Chinese citizens slightly injured, the current main island of international communication is cut off, including the Internet, only local calls can be maintained. However, due to volcanic ash, the quality of local calls may be affected.
According to the situation of their visits in the past two days, the overseas Chinese engaged in commercial supermarket business in the coastal areas have suffered heavy losses, basic houses and goods have been destroyed, and the farms of overseas Chinese engaged in agricultural cultivation have all been covered with volcanic ash, and in the next one to two months, there will be no fresh vegetables in Tonga to supply.
"But I believe that there are always more ways than difficulties, and in Tang Qiao compatriots have given full play to the tradition of Chinese industriousness, bravery, courage, and good work, and believe that with the support of the motherland and the concern of relatives, everyone will unite as one and will certainly be able to overcome the difficulties together." Zhang Xuanfoil said.
Over the past 20 -odd years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Tonga, the relations between the two countries have developed steadily.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said that China and Tonga are comprehensive strategic partners, and China expresses its deep sympathy and sincere condolences to the Tonga government and people, and is willing to provide support and assistance within its capacity at the request of the Tonga side.
The content is compiled from CCTV News, Global Times, Futures Daily, Sina.com, Stone Science Popularization Studio, National Geographic Chinese.com