Source: DoNews
ID：ilovedonews
Author: Yin Taibai, Yang Bocheng
Rolled up again.
Near the Lunar New Year, the war in the field of smart phones has been ignited again, but unlike the previous inner volume in terms of images, chips, refresh rates, endurance, etc., this time the war has begun to burn to the folding screen, and it has a great tendency to intensify.
On January 10, Honor launched its first folding screen mobile phone Magic V, on December 15, 2021, OPPO launched its first folding screen mobile phone OPPO Find N, and on December 23, 2021, Huawei released the folding screen mobile phone Huawei P50 Pocket.
Prior to this, Samsung launched two folding screen phones, the Samsung Galaxy Z Fold3 and the Samsung Galaxy Z Flip3, on September 1, and Xiaomi released its first folding screen phone, the Xiaomi MIX FOLD, on March 30. So far, in addition to vivo, which has applied for a number of folding screen related patents but has not yet released a folding screen mobile phone, and Apple, which has not yet made a clear statement, most mainstream mobile phone manufacturers have completed the layout on the folding screen track.
But the inner volume is obviously not just about the layout.
According to foreign media MSPoweruser, Samsung is developing a folding screen mobile phone with two hinges and three panels, which no longer needs a separate external screen and can obtain a larger visual size after unfolding. There is news that the folding screen mobile phone or will be released in the second half of 2022.
Image source: Network rendering
Jiang Yiming, a veteran digital enthusiast, couldn't help but laugh after learning the news that Samsung had developed a three-fold folding screen mobile phone, "Will the future folding screen mobile phone be designed to look like an ancient folding?" ”
Folding screen mobile phones were once regarded as "future mobile phones" and could not be reached. But now, the "future mobile phone" is spreading with lightning speed. "The development momentum of folding screen mobile phones is very strong, but at the same time the positioning is more awkward, after all, the folding screen is not just needed, and it is necessary to truly form a clear concept and positioning from the folding screen mobile phone, and it also needs to go through some market education and exploration." Jiang Yiming told DoNews.
That being the case, what is the significance of folding screen mobile phones at this stage?
A smart phone industry person analysis believes that the smart phone market is mature and rolled in, the major mobile phone manufacturers are trying to find ways to impact the high-end market, and the folding screen mobile phone has put forward great requirements for software systems and hardware manufacturing, which is a symbol of technical strength and a pass for the high-end market, "but for now, the folding screen is actually the same as the early full screen, which is a very good marketing point." ”
Folding screen mobile phones ushered in the outbreak of the first year
The other side of the major mobile phone manufacturers that have launched folding screen mobile phones is that the folding screen mobile phone track is ushering in a rapid growth stage.
According to a survey report from the panel supply chain research and research agency DSCC, in the third quarter of 2021, the shipment of folding screen mobile phones reached 2.6 million units, an increase of 215% month-on-month and an increase of 480% year-on-year. It is expected that by 2022, the shipment volume of the folding screen mobile phone market will reach 17.5 million units.
Before 2021, the shipment of folding screen mobile phones is a completely different picture. The same survey report from the DSCC shows that in 2019, the shipment of folding screen mobile phones was only more than 500,000 units, and in 2020, this number will only rise to 3 million.
Although folding screen mobile phones usher in an inflection point in 2021, in fact, folding screen mobile phones are not new.
The earliest folding screen mobile phones date back to 2012. At that time, Japanese ceramics manufacturer Kyocera and China Telecom jointly launched a telecom customization machine Kyocera KSP8000. Kyocera KSP8000 is made up of two independent screens connected by rollers, the visual size of the screen can reach 4.7 inches, and its design idea is to allow users to switch between single-screen mode, tablet mode and multi-task mode.
In 2017, ZTE also launched a folding screen mobile phone ZTE Axon M, and provided four display modes of single screen mode, mirror mode, expansion mode and dual screen mode, which greatly developed the practicality of folding screen mobile phones.
Image source: Zhongguancun Online
Due to the connection line between the screen and the screen, kyocera KSP8000 and ZTE Axon M, although not really folding screen mobile phones, can be called the originator and enlightener of folding screen mobile phones. What really makes the folding screen mobile phone enter the public vision is the folding screen mobile phone FlexPai released by Royole in October 2018, which is also the world's first consumer-grade folding screen mobile phone.
Royole FlexPai's screen adopts its self-developed 7.8-inch second-generation cicada wing flexible screen, which can achieve free bending, folding, and curling, not only with the bright colors of AMOLED, but also with strong contrast, wide viewing angle and high resolution. While royole FlexPai's design and configuration are stunning enough, the flaws are also obvious: a more fragile screen, a thick body, unavoidable creases, and poor application fit.
Royole FlexPai's flaws severely limited the shipment of folding screen phones until Samsung and Huawei jumped in. In February 2019, Samsung released its first folding screen mobile phone, the Samsung Galaxy Fold, and following in Samsung's footsteps, Huawei also released its first folding screen mobile phone, Huawei Mate X.
The entry of Samsung and Huawei has polarized consumers' attitudes towards folding screen mobile phones. On the one hand, the Samsung Galaxy Fold is highly sought after, and its price in the second-hand market was even speculated to more than 30,000 yuan at one point, according to Gao Dongzhen, president of Samsung's mobile department, as of January 2020, the shipment volume of Samsung Galaxy Fold was 400,000-500,000 units. On the other hand, consumers' complaints about folding screen mobile phones are endless, "expensive and not practical" and "purely IQ tax".
"Early folding screen mobile phones did have many flaws, but now the technology has made great breakthroughs, whether it is hinges, screens or weight control, there has been a qualitative leap." The above-mentioned industry insiders also told DoNews that at the software level, head applications and waist applications are actively adapting to folding screen mobile phones, and the folding screen application ecology has achieved good results.
It is worth mentioning that Samsung is the biggest beneficiary of the folding screen mobile phone dividend. According to the DSCC's research report, in the third quarter of 2021, Samsung's market share in the global folding screen mobile phone market was as high as 93%, of which the Samsung Galaxy Z Flip3 had a market share of 60%, the Samsung Galaxy Z Fold3 had a market share of 23%, and Huawei ranked second with a market share of 6%. DSCC predicts that by the fourth quarter, Samsung's market share will further increase to 95%.
Another fact that cannot be ignored is that Samsung is also a folding screen supplier for many mobile phone manufacturers. In January 2021, Samsung signed an agreement to supply folding displays to some mobile phone manufacturers, which began shipping in the third quarter and delivered 1 million pieces before the end of the year, and mobile phone manufacturers such as Xiaomi, OPPO, and Vivo were among those who were supplied. According to foreign media BusinessKorea, Samsung plans to increase the output of folding screens from 17 million to 25 million per year, an increase of more than 40%.
Although Huawei has a big gap with Samsung in the global folding screen mobile phone market, in the Chinese folding screen mobile phone market, Huawei surpasses Samsung to occupy a dominant position. According to the statistics of Ai Media Consulting Research Institute, in 2021, Huawei's market share in China's folding screen mobile phone market will be 64%. Among consumers considering buying folding screen mobile phones, 87% continue to pay attention to Huawei folding screen mobile phones.
The inflection point has arrived, and there are still many obstacles to be overcome
The development of folding screen mobile phones is in full swing, but the dismal shipment volume once made the entire smartphone industry like a fish in the throat.
High selling prices are a major obstacle to shipments. At present, the average price of folding screen mobile phones released by major mobile phone manufacturers is about 13500 yuan, and according to the data of Ai Media Consulting Research Institute, the average price of global smart phones is only 2061 yuan. Statistics from IDC show that in 2020, the global shipment of folding screen mobile phones was about 1.947 million units, while the global shipment of smartphones in the same year was 1.292 billion units, accounting for only 0.15% of the former. This means that the high price of the folding screen mobile phone has seriously hindered the popularity of folding screen mobile phones.
As of December 31, the monthly sales of the Xiaomi MIX FOLD in the official flagship store of Xiaomi Tmall were only 600+, compared with the monthly sales of the Redmi K40 of 30,000+, while the monthly sales of the Xiaomi Mi 11 were 3,000+. It is also worth noting that in the "6·18" and "Double Eleven" mobile phone sales list, there is almost no trace of folding screen mobile phones.
Offline, the shipment volume of folding screen mobile phones is also unsatisfactory. DoNews visited the cyber city of a third-tier city in Shandong, and several stall staff said that there is currently no folding screen mobile phone inventory, "the price of folding screen mobile phones is still high, the monthly sales volume is only a few, most consumers will not pay." ”
The above-mentioned industry insiders explained to DoNews a major reason for the high price of folding screen mobile phones, "The cost and yield rate of folding screens are not as good as ordinary screens, which directly increases the price of finished machines." ”
And it is. According to market research firm Omdia, the cost of folding screens is around $150-250, compared to less than $100 for ordinary screens.
At the same time, the folding screen is also facing high maintenance prices. It is reported that Huawei Mate X2 uses a folding screen developed and produced by BOE, and its internal screen maintenance price is as high as 3999 yuan.
The low yield rate of the hinge is another reason for the high price of folding screen mobile phones. Hinge belongs to the precision structural parts, its durability determines the bending life of the folding screen mobile phone, and the lack of hinge design structure will lead to the folding screen mobile phone in the folding gap after folding, aggravate the screen crease and other issues, "Hinge technology also needs about a year to be more mature, to achieve greater output, the cost down." The above-mentioned industry insiders said.
Like the folding screen, the cost of hinges is just as frighteningly high. According to Liu Zuohu, senior vice president of OPPO, the cost of the water droplet hinge used on OPPO Find N exceeds $100, which is 1/10 of the final price.
At this stage, the poor adaptability of mobile phone systems and applications to folding screen mobile phones also seriously restricts consumers' willingness to buy.
"Many applications have not yet adapted to the folding screen, if you want to use it on the folding screen mobile phone can only be through the way of split screen and floating window, the user experience is difficult to describe." Jiang Yiming complained.
The proportion of shipments of folding screen mobile phones is still low, resulting in many application developers lacking motivation to adapt to folding screens. In fact, applications on folding screen phones often switch between single and dual screens, and how to deal with this switch easily is not an easy task for app developers.
A mobile phone application developer told DoNews that it is not difficult to adapt the application to the folding screen, but it is an extremely tedious task to adapt the application to the folding screen mobile phone of different mobile phone manufacturers with different screen sizes. Liu Zuohu also said that the adaptation workload of folding screen mobile phones is four to five times that of ordinary flagship machines, and may even be six times.
However, it is not difficult to predict that although the popularity of folding screen mobile phones still faces many obstacles, after mobile phone manufacturers have successively launched folding screen mobile phones, an era of folding screen mobile phones is coming.
Folding screen phones in a dilemma
"Judging from the previous shipping trend, part of it is hype, and the other part is for business customers to give gifts." A Huawei dealer told us that among the Huawei series of folding screen products he contacted, the better selling is Mate X2, which is more like a test product for Huawei to enter the folding screen field for the previous two generations of products.
Whether it is testing the waters or officially going to the mass market, what we see is that most mobile phone manufacturers are invariably jumping into this red sea, and everyone wants to open up their own new continent in this water.
In this folding chaos, Huawei, millet, OPPO, glory have been down, as far as domestic manufacturers are concerned, only vivo is currently left to watch the battle alone, it seems that it does not look at the folding screen mobile phone in the eyes.
At present, most consumers still do not have a strong willingness to buy, resulting in flat feedback in the folding screen market, and because of this, Huawei, OPPO's newly listed folding screen mobile phones have not generated more premiums, basically staying at the original price or cheaper than the original price.
An OPPO channel provider told DoNews that consumers' enthusiasm for folding screens is far less than other models, and the best-selling models in its store are priced between 3,000-5,000 yuan, in the lower-middle price range. Another Xiaomi dealer said that the consumption range of the price of mobile phone products in its store was basically maintained at 2,000-4,000 yuan.
"Because Honor's products are still very few, the current best-selling is the Magic 3 series, which is still relatively popular, and the sales of other models are still very small, except for very low-priced models." A Glory offline store clerk said that they are not quite sure how the sales of Honor's first folding screen will be, but if the price is too high, they also feel that the sales will not be too good. "If it sells for the same price as Huawei, why don't you buy Huawei?"
DoNews visited a number of mobile phone stores at the end of 2021 and asked a number of mobile phone dealer channels, for the actual buyers of folding screens we came up with three results, we also sorted them by proportion - hoarding speculation after purchase, gifts after purchase, and self-use after purchase.
It can be seen that most of the buyers of folding screen mobile phones are "scalpers" in the industry, or some dealers, while a smaller part of the people will pay for the folding screen.
In addition, in the process of our visit, we also randomly asked 30 consumers who came to the store to buy machines, 22 consumers believe that folding screen mobile phones are expensive, and there is nothing new, 8 consumers think that they can buy and try, but they are more inclined to buy second-hand folding screen mobile phones.
The dilemma is the current situation facing folding screen mobile phones.
When the folding screen mobile phone was launched, many digital enthusiasts asked the same question, in addition to the folding screen mobile phone, what is the difference between it and ordinary mobile phones? Does it give us an advanced experience?
We believe that the current mobile phone manufacturers do not seem to have taken these problems into account in the actual application scenario, because the folding screen mobile phone in addition to the screen folding, increased the hinge that can make the screen fold, the other seems to be no different from the ordinary mobile phone technology, and even it does not bring us the most advanced experience - when the screen is unfolded you need to hold both hands at the same time, which does not seem to be suitable for the use of the general public. Therefore, folding screen mobile phones seem to be more inclined to the B-side, that is, business occasions, in the use of scenarios.
I believe that when you see the folding screen, you will think of the tablet we commonly use, especially the two-in-one tablet, folded up is a tablet, and vice versa is a laptop, which is our standard in the work. For the folding screen, it is like a miniature version of the tablet two-in-one computer, and the use scenario on the B side will be much larger than the C-side (personal) use scenario.
Therefore, the current mobile phone manufacturers want to quickly cut into the C-end, so that more individual consumers accept such a product as a folding screen. We can also clearly see that the current price of folding screens of domestic mobile phone manufacturers is constantly declining, from a price of nearly 20,000 yuan to nearly 7,000 yuan, and OPPO has played out the product theme of "from early adopter to common use".
But now the problem that manufacturers need to face is what its use scenario is, if it only occupies a place in the folding screen mobile phone, such a product we should go to a question mark.
Folding screen mobile phones have a long way ahead, and the fight is still continuing.
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