I don't know where you see that after two or three years, it is the world of electric vehicles, some marketing numbers are afraid of the world, everywhere to promote the theory of oil depletion, the theory of fuel vehicle ban, electric vehicles represent the future, do their best to advocate electric vehicles, but I think it is too early to talk about electric vehicles replacing fuel vehicles.
Many people confuse electrification and electrification, the future development trend of the car is not electrification, but electrification, electrification not only includes electric vehicles, but also hybrid, hydrogen fuel and other new energy situation. However, at present, pure electric vehicles have the following problems:
1, the battery energy storage method is less efficient
Many people say that the energy efficiency of electric vehicles is as high as 90%, while Toyota, which has the highest thermal efficiency of internal combustion engines, is only about 41%, and the energy efficiency of electric vehicles is much higher than that of electric vehicles, but this calculation method is undoubtedly a stealing concept. The current form of thermal power generation is mainly thermal power generation, China's existing thermal power plant power generation efficiency is about 47%, last year the national grid transmission line loss rate of 6.34%, calculated from the power grid to electric vehicles, the efficiency is only more than 40%, and then multiplied by 90% of the battery and motor efficiency, in fact, the actual efficiency of electric vehicles and fuel vehicles are almost the same. In urban sections, electric vehicles have advantages in energy efficiency, and in high-speed sections, internal combustion engines have more advantages.
In addition, we can compare the injection efficiency of electric vehicles and fuel vehicles. The calorific value of gasoline is 42 megajoules per kilogram, and the fuel tank of the general family car can add about 40 kilograms of gasoline, which is equivalent to about 1680 megajoules of heat, and the energy injection time is 3 minutes. The electric vehicle 50 kWh of electricity, which is equivalent to about 180 megajoules, the energy injection time is more than 1 hour, and the efficiency of the battery energy storage method is significantly lower.
2. The bottleneck of endurance is difficult to break through
From 2009 to 2019, China's investment in new energy policy subsidies has accumulated more than 100 billion, but it is still difficult to break through the bottleneck of electric vehicle endurance, and the gap between NEDC endurance and actual endurance is obvious, in the process of daily use, the deviation has reached 80-90%, and the actual endurance in winter and high speed is more seriously reduced, and it is already quite good to reach 70% of NEDC.
The key problem is that electric vehicles, unlike fuel vehicles, need to reserve the power to find charging piles, and although each brand is promoting its own fast charging technology, it is often 30-80% of the charging time, and the charging speed after charging to 90% is greatly reduced, waiting for the electric vehicle to fully fill the car mainly pays a high time cost. So the actual endurance of the electric car should be cut off, and the actual power you can use is only 75% of the electricity between 15-90%. In this way, an electric car with a nominal NEDC range of 500km, the actual usable range is only 300 kilometers, and winter and high-speed driving must be discounted, which is why the range anxiety problem of electric vehicles is difficult to solve.
3, battery life and retention rate problems are difficult to solve
There is a paradox in electric vehicles, fast charging time is short, but there is damage to the battery; slow charging is good for battery protection, but the charging time is too slow. When there is a private parking space, there is a home charging pile, charging may be more convenient than refueling, after all, after arriving at home, plug in the charging, unplug when using the car, but for many car owners who do not have private parking spaces, they can only choose the fast charging method, which will significantly affect the battery life.
Battery life problem also brings a fatal problem of electric vehicles - retention rate, many people because of the driving cost of electric vehicles is lower, but this is only a small account, if the retention rate is included, in a few years when the electric vehicle is sold, you will find that the cost of using electric vehicles is not low compared to fuel vehicles, and the money saved by charging is all put in when selling cars. If you choose to continue to hold, the problem of battery attenuation is serious, and the cost of replacing the battery is too high, and the owner is often caught in a dilemma.
4. The battery recycling system is not yet mature
Many people think that electric vehicles are more environmentally friendly than fuel vehicles because they have zero emissions during driving, but they ignore the pollution of batteries. Lithium batteries can cause heavy metal nickel, cobalt pollution, fluorine pollution, organic pollution, dust and acid and alkali pollution, the original waste battery pollution problem can be solved by power battery recycling, but at present, whether it is cascade utilization, or recycling, the power battery recycling in the early stage of development Still has an immature business model, lack of sufficient effective waste battery collection channels and battery disassembly / disassembly mismatch, remaining life prediction and other issues, China's power lithium battery recycling ratio is about 10%, the remaining 90% Lithium batteries can contaminate the land, rivers, rivers and seas and even our drinking water. Battery pollution problems are difficult to solve, and electric vehicles are difficult to call environmentally friendly.
Of course, electric vehicles are not without advantages, their simple structure, low maintenance costs, direct output characteristics, quiet driving and other characteristics, very suitable for urban transportation. But at present, I only recommend that users in non-severe cold areas with a short driving radius can purchase electric vehicles in order to have a better car experience than fuel vehicles. In the future, electric vehicles and fuel vehicles are not necessarily a replacement relationship, and electric vehicles are likely to be mainly urban transportation tools, and fuel hybrid vehicles and hydrogen fuel vehicles form a useful supplement.