Editor's Note: Tian Feng is a tech expert based in Beijing who follows frontier technologies closely. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.
Major scientific problems, engineering and technical problems, industrial technology problems are the source of power to promote the sustainable progress of mankind, and in the unprecedented changes in a hundred years, mankind is bearing natural disasters such as epidemics, floods, droughts, insect plagues, hurricanes, as well as international anti-globalization trade challenges, employment rate challenges, aging challenges, only a steady stream of scientific and technological innovation to bring hope and direction to human survival and development.
This article starts from China's existing scientific and technological breakthroughs in 2021, and looks forward to the general direction, propositions and opportunities of China's scientific research in the next decade, and the great China will surely come from imagination and creativity.
Major breakthroughs in scientific, engineering and industrial challenges are the driving forces behind the sustained development of human society. The world is undergoing once-in-a-century changes, and humanity is suffering from natural disasters such as floods, droughts and hurricanes, as well as global challenges such as anti-globalization trade disruptions, employment difficulties and aging populations. Only a continuous stream of scientific and technological innovation can bring hope and direction for the continued survival and development of humanity.
Based on the scientific and technological breakthroughs China made in 2021, we can peek into the major development trends of China's science and technology over the next decade.
#01.
Earth Simulator predicts crises
Earth simulator to predict future crises
The earth has a history of 4.6 billion years, and human civilization only has a short period of more than 50 million years, and the dream of mankind is to go back to the ancient times and deduce the changes of nature and human civilization in the "digital twin earth" (simulating the real earth in the virtual world, like a virtual earth twin).
The "Earthlab" of the Institute of Atmospheric Sciences of the Chinese Academy of Sciences is the same as the "Destination Earth Plan" of the European Union, simulating the physical, chemical and biological processes and mutual influences of the earth system's atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, lithosphere and biosphere through high-performance computing, high-precision environmental simulation, big data and other technologies, providing scientific support for major issues such as national disaster prevention and mitigation, climate change response, and atmospheric environment governance.
The Earth has a history of 4.6 billion years, while humanity has only a short history of about 50 million years. Scientists are exploring the use of a "digital twin" of Earth to simulate the planet's past and present, so as to forecast the future paths of the natural world and human civilizations.
Last June, the Institute of Atmospheric Physics under the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) unveiled China's first such scientific project named the Earth System Science Numerical Simulator Facility, or "EarthLab."
It can simulate the physical, chemical and biological evolution of the Earth's atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, lithosphere and biosphere through technologies including high-performance computing, high-precision environmental simulation and big data, so as to provide scientific support for problems such as natural disaster prevention and mitigation and fighting climate change.
Countries including the U.S. and Japan have already built such Earth simulators, and "EarthLab" is comparable to the Europe Union's "Destination Earth" initiative. The project is still in its early development period and will take more than a decade to be upgraded.
#02.
Additive manufacturing (3D printing) enables "universal creation"
3D printing to reinvent manufacturing
In China's next three to five development goals, additive manufacturing (3D printing) is the key equipment technology of high-end CNC machine tools and robot development strategies.
In 2020, China's Long March 5B carrier rocket is equipped with a "3D printer" to achieve space 3D printing of fiber-reinforced composite parts; in 2021, China Aerospace Science and Industry Group successfully printed the complex structure of a certain type of aircraft product, significantly improving the lightweight level of the aircraft.
3D printing technology in aviation, architecture, dentistry, jewelry, medical and other fields have a wide range of application space, integrated structural design and manufacturing so that the number of complex components significantly reduced, a printer can achieve multiple parts of the simultaneous printing, personalized manufacturing time greatly shortened, assembly simplification, structural reliability greatly improved. Internationally, the use of calcium-based mineral materials 3D printing to manufacture artificial bones, grow blood vessels and bone marrow inside the degradable materials, and 3D print house components with foam-like materials to assemble houses at the construction site. In the foreseeable future, 3D printing will become a universal tool for everything from teeth to star rockets, and all manufacturing will be redone to obtain the highest cost performance and production efficiency.
In China's industrial development goals for the next three to five years, additive manufacturing, also known as 3D printing, is a key technology in the development strategy of high-grade computerized numerical control (CNC) machine tools and robots.
A Long March-5B rocket launched in May 2020 carried a 3D printer and realized 3D printing of fiber-reinforced composite parts in space for the first time. In 2021, China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation successfully printed aircraft products with complex structures, which significantly reduced the weight of aircraft.
In the foreseeable future, 3D printing technology will be used to manufacture products ranging from something as small as artificial teeth to those as big as interstellar rockets, and reinvent the whole manufacturing industry for maximum cost effectiveness and production efficiency.
#03.
Artificial Intelligence and cosmic perception network
Cosmic sensing networks to look deep into the universe
Coinciding with space tourism is the rise of cosmic perception networks. For example, the Chinese Tianyan FAST Radio Telescope has discovered hundreds of pulsars from the solar system to the edge of the Milky Way, laying an experimental foundation for the future establishment of "interstellar clocks" (pulsar timing arrays) and "interstellar navigators" (pulsar navigation systems), and at the same time detecting gravitational waves and extraterrestrial civilization communication waves.
China's Sky Eye is open to global astronomers, generating 15 petabytes of big data (2GB/s) every year, calculated according to the 30 million pictures generated per week, and automatically identifying pulsars with artificial intelligence, which can shorten to 3 days to complete the work, and the accuracy rate is greatly improved, which is a thousand times higher than pure manual efficiency.
In the next few decades, China and countries around the world will establish more celestial eyes, launch more deep space probes, and human beings will build a perception network throughout the universe, relying on the continuous growth of massive data to generate simulated cosmic models, from the "digital twin Earth", "digital twin solar system", "digital twin Galaxy", we will enter a truly grand "original universe".
Accompanying the development of space tourism is the rise of cosmic sensing networks.
For example, China's Five-hundred-meter Aperture Spherical Radio Telescope (FAST), nicknamed the "Eye of Heaven," has discovered hundreds of pulsars from our solar system to the edge of the galaxy, laying the experimental foundation for the future establishment of "interstellar clocks" (pulsar timing arrays) and "interstellar navigation" (pulsar navigation system). FAST is also capable of detecting gravitational waves and communication signals from extraterrestrial civilizations (if they exist).
China's FAST has been open to global scientists since April 2021. It generates 15 petabytes of big data (at a rate of 2 gigabytes/second) every year. It only takes artificial intelligence (AI) three days to process a whole year's data to identify pulsars automatically, with significantly higher efficiency and much greater accuracy.
In the coming decades, China and other countries around the world will build more "eyes" to look deep into space and launch more deep space probes to establish sensing networks across the universe. With the massive data collected by the sensing networks, scientists can even build a "digital twin of the solar system" and a "digital twin of the galaxy," thus getting to know more about the real universe.
#04.
Photonic chips help "quantum computing superiority"
Photonic chips to empower 'quantum computing superiority'
Along with the traditional silicon-based chip facing the challenge of 2nm research and development, Moore's Law fails. The photonic chip reconstructs the logical expression structure, and can make chips without foreign lithography machines, becoming the core of the quantum computer, so it was applied to the optical quantum computing prototype "Nine Chapters" in 2019. The "Nine Chapter One" (76 photons) processes specific problems 100 trillion times faster than the world's first supercomputer, while the "Nine Chapter Two" is 100 times faster than the first machine and has programmable functions.
In 2021, China's second-generation photonic chip came out, running a specific recurrent neural network 100 times faster than the GPU, with ultra-low latency, high throughput, high energy efficiency ratio and other advantages. On the other hand, in 2021, the Institute of Quantum Information and Quantum Science and Technology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences successfully developed the 66-bit programmable superconducting quantum computing prototype "Zuchong No. 2", which realized programmable two-dimensional quantum walking (rather than random walking).
In the next decade, photonic chips will be gradually applied to automatic driving, AR glasses, quantitative transactions, AI supercomputing centers, robots and other fields, and quantum computing technology is developing rapidly in the direction of quantum communication, quantum satellites, big data processing, etc., forming a "quantum +" industrial cluster.
In 2019, photonic chips were used in China's photonic quantum computer prototype "Jiuzhang." Jiuzhang (with 76 detected photons) can process specific problems 100 trillion times faster than the world's most powerful supercomputer. An updated version, Jiuzhang 2.0 (with 113 detected photons), which unveiled in 2021, is 100 times faster than Jiuzhang, and is programmable.
In December 2021, China unveiled its second-generation photonic chip, which features ultra-low latency, high throughput and high energy efficiency.
Meanwhile, in October 2021, China successfully developed the 66-qubit programmable superconducting quantum computer prototype "Zuchongzhi 2.0," which achieved two-dimensional programmable quantum walk (instead of random walk).
Over the next decade, photonic chips will be gradually applied in areas such as autonomous driving, AR glasses, quantitative trading, AI supercomputing data centers and robots.
Quantum computing technology is developing rapidly in areas like quantum communications, quantum satellites and big data processing, with various quantum industries under development.
#05.
AI large device and scientific research "space-time machine"
AI to revolutionize scientific research
In scientific research, it is often the last key that opens the "temple door", and artificial intelligence can test all the keys for the scientist. Artificial intelligence can not only rely on big data for induction and reasoning, but also through machine learning to guess unknown rules.
The new AI Computing Center built in Shanghai is currently the largest AI computing power platform in Asia, with a total capacity of 3740 Petaflops.
Subversive innovation on the "AI scientific research device" (AI supercomputing center + scientific research platform) can solve the bottleneck problems such as heavy labor, light automation, high uncertainty, and long time consumption in traditional scientific research, and human beings can "shoot all arrows" in some experimental links of basic scientific research such as new energy, new food, new materials, and new drugs, and use the overall "Dacheng wisdom" of mankind to greatly reduce the scope, time and cost of offline experiments, and liberate valuable scientific research manpower from "luck" work. Ai takes on the hard work of a lot of repeated attempts.
For example, Google AlphaZero in the United States relies on massive intelligent computing power to "brute force" (innovate) a large number of new chess pieces unknown to humans in a short period of time, and for example, Chinese enterprise SenseTime uses artificial intelligence to mine protein interactions, anti-cancer drug responses, genetic mutation prediction based on pathological images, drug redirection, discover the potential rules of new and old drugs in clinical big data, and open up "clinical medical image analysis, big data analysis, drug research and development" on AI research and development devices. The trinity of virtuous cycles of scientific research production lines. Human beings are learning to master an "AI research ladder" that breaks through the limitations of time and space, and will gradually harvest autonomous vehicles that expand the space of activity, new drugs to extend their own lives, artificial meat that feeds the population, climate governance "brains", controlled nuclear fusion that supports interstellar navigation...
In scientific research, it's often the last key on the ring that opens the door. AI with massive computing power can help researchers test all the possible keys before a real breakthrough can be made.
Conventional research relies heavily on manual work, comes with high uncertainty and is usually time-consuming. "AI Infrastructure" (AI data center + research platform) can solve these problems, undertaking the basic research in areas such as new energy, new food, new materials and new medicines and freeing valuable research manpower from the tedious work of repeated experiments.
For example, Chinese company Sensetime uses AI to mine data on protein interactions, reactions to cancer drugs and gene mutation predictions based on pathological image.
The new AI data center built in Shanghai is the largest AI computing platform in Asia, with a computing power of 3,740 petaflops.
AI is revolutionizing research and development in various areas and will contribute to a slew of new tech breakthroughs including automatic driving, new drugs to prolong life expectancy, artificial meat to feed the people and controlled nuclear fusion energy to support interstellar voyages.
#06.
Man-machine media gives birth to the "10,000-screen era"
AR glasses and the 'era of ubiquitous screens'
In the next 5 years, human beings will get rid of mobile phones and enter the "era of ten thousand screens" through AR glasses, where space is screened and everything interacts. In the metaverse, many new generations of virtual and real application forms will be produced, such as space search engines, space value-added services, and digital human assistants.
In the next 10-20 years, it will usher in the interactive upgrade of "brain-computer medium", in 2021, China's BrainCo Strong Brain Technology has developed a non-invasive neural interface intelligent interactive device, which can realize the action intention tracking functions such as "idea writing" and "bionic hand playing piano", extract 20,000 MYO-neural electrical data per second, quickly and accurately identify user intentions, and the brain-computer Internet of Things that moves with the heart goes into reality.
In the next five years, mobile phones will no longer be a necessity for people, as we will enter the "era of ubiquitous screens" with augmented reality (AR) glasses, in which screens are everywhere and everything can interact with each other. In the metaverse we enter through AR glasses, there will be new-generation applications such as space scanning and search engines, digital twin factories, hospitals and communities, as well as digital human assistants.
#07.
The Energy Crisis and the "Solar Container"
'Artificial sun' promises to solve energy crisis
In 200 years, the global oil resources and natural gas resources will gradually be exhausted, but the carbon emissions from fossil energy will make human beings fall into frequent extreme climate disasters, so human beings have invested heavily in the research and development of clean primary energy technologies such as wind power, photovoltaics, nuclear energy, and hydropower. While the essence of all the earth's energy comes from solar energy, the "artificial sun" (controlled nuclear fusion) has become the ultimate energy source to solve the energy crisis, and ultra-high temperatures require extremely high requirements for containers. Tokamak, simply put, is a ring-descriptor that uses magnetic constraints to achieve controlled nuclear fusion. In its center is a circular vacuum surrounded by a coil. When energized, a huge spiral-shaped magnetic field is generated inside it, which heats the plasma in it to a very high temperature for the purpose of controlled nuclear fusion.
On December 30, 2021, the Hefei Institute of Physical Sciences of the Chinese Academy of Sciences once again set a world record in the all-superconducting tokamak nuclear fusion experimental device, achieving a long pulse of 1056 seconds of high-parameter plasma operation, which is the longest high-temperature plasma operation achieved by the tokamak device in the world. In the future, once human beings have mastered the new energy of controlled nuclear fusion, they will have a high-energy power for long-distance travel in space.
Within 200 years, the global oil and natural gas resources will be exhausted. The carbon emission from fossil energies has already caused frequent extreme weather disasters worldwide. Therefore, countries are investing huge sums in clean energies such as wind power, photovoltaics, nuclear power and hydropower.
Nearly all the energies found on Earth originated from the sun, and scientists are developing "artificial suns" (controlled nuclear fusion reactors) as the ultimate energy solution. A device designed to allow controlled nuclear fusion reactions to happen is called Tokamac, which uses a powerful magnetic field to confine the hot plasma in the shape of a torus.
China's Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST) in Hefei, capital of east China's Anhui Province, has just set a new world record after running at the temperature of 70 million degrees Celsius for as long as 1,056 seconds (over 17 minutes), laying "a solid scientific and experimental foundation toward the running of a fusion reactor," according to the scientist in charge of the experiment.
In the future, nuclear fusion energy will also power humanity's long-distance travels to space.
#08.
Carbon neutrality breeds artificial food
From carbon dioxide to artificial food
According to the United Nations World Food Programme, 2.37 billion people worldwide will not have access to enough food in 2020. The international development of artificial meat and vertical farms has the disadvantage of high energy consumption and high cost. In 2021, the Tianjin Institute of Industrial Biotechnology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences successfully developed a synthetic starch technology, getting rid of "photosynthesis" and land resources, and using carbon dioxide and hydrogen produced by electrolysis to synthesize starch, shortening 60 steps in nature to 11 steps, and the efficiency is 8.5 times that of corn starch synthesis.
According to the energy conversion path of "light energy- electric energy - chemical energy", the use of photovoltaic power generation, photovoltaic electrolysis of water to produce hydrogen, hydrogen to reduce carbon dioxide to methanol, biological enzyme catalyst to convert methanol into starch, 1 cubic meter of bioreactor, equivalent to the average annual yield of corn planting in 5 acres of land. This technology can not only solve the problem of carbon neutrality of climate warming, but also synthesize "artificial starch" on the earth and other planets, 10 degrees of electricity for 1 kg of starch, achieving a historic breakthrough from 0 to 1.
At present, the global production process of artificial meat and artificial food is still relatively expensive, such as a thin slice of artificial beef for 50 US dollars, and it is necessary to imitate the taste of natural meat and staple foods to achieve industrial large-scale production. Therefore, how to continuously reduce costs, improve safety and artificial food taste will become the focus of human scientific research in the next decade.
Data from the United Nations World Food Program showed that 2.37 billion people around the world did not have enough food in 2020.
In September 2021, Chinese scientists became the first in the world to develop an artificial method of synthesizing starch from carbon dioxide (CO2).
The new approach by the Tianjin Institute of Industrial Biotechnology of the CAS makes it possible to alter starch production from traditional agricultural planting to industrial manufacturing, which offers a new possibility of making artificial food in the future.
Theoretically, given enough energy supply, based on the current technical parameters, the annual production capacity of starch in a 1-cubic-meter bioreactor equals the annual yield of starch from one-third of a hectare of corn, according to the team.
If the overall cost of the system can be lowered to a level economically comparable with agricultural planting in the future, it is expected to save more than 90 percent of arable land and freshwater, according to the researchers.
And the new approach will also help achieve carbon neutrality and combat global warming.
#09.
New energy vehicles and green hydrogen production
New energy vehicles and green hydrogen production
As the transport sector is the world's third largest source of greenhouse gas emissions, the new energy of transport is an effective way to achieve climate goals and sustainable transport. Automobiles, ships, aircraft and other means of transportation use electricity, hydrogen energy, natural gas and other new energy sources, and hydrogen fuel cells have the advantages of long mileage and fast energy replenishment time than electric batteries.
In 2021, the Fuel Cell System Science and Engineering Research Center of Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences developed the "megawatt-level proton exchange membrane (PEM) water electrolysis hydrogen production system", which was tested by the State Grid Anhui Corporation, with a rated hydrogen production rate of 220Nm3/h and a peak hydrogen production of 275Nm3/h, which has the advantages of low energy consumption, large current density, high gas production pressure, strong volatility resistance, and small equipment footprint, and has become an important development direction of international green hydrogen production. From the whole chain of hydrogen energy production, distribution, transportation and refueling, there are still many technical problems to be overcome, from hydrogen vehicles, hydrogen ships to hydrogen aircraft, which will become an important supplement to traffic electrification and make long-term contributions to global low-carbon transportation.
The transportation industry is the third largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in the world, and new energy transition of transportation vehicles is vital for the carbon neutrality goal.
In the near future, not only cars, but also ships and planes will be fueled by a variety of new energies such as electricity, hydrogen and natural gas. Among them, the hydrogen fuel cell has the advantages of long range and short refueling time.
In September 2021, a megawatt-level hydrogen production system using proton exchange membrane (PEM) water electrolysis technology, developed by the Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics under the CAS, realized full capacity operation, laying the technical foundation for the large-scale utilization of green hydrogen energy.
In the future, there will be more hydrogen fuel cars, ships and planes, which will become important supplements for electric transportation vehicles.
#10.
Calculation of Everything and the Neo-Renaissance
Ubiquitous computing
When every object is equipped with a chip "brain" and sensor "eyes", "nose" and "limbs" of a robot hand, algorithms with correct ethics drive the real world day and night, while human inspiration and spirit are freely traversed in the metaverse.
After the explosion of science and technology in the next ten years, mankind will usher in a new renaissance in the space age, as Liu Cixin predicted in "The Three-Body Problem": "Under the waves of the second renaissance, the second enlightenment, the fourth scientific and technological revolution, human society is back on track." The Space Force chose to declare independence and form Starship International. In the golden age of the years after the End of the Great Depression, countless monuments were built around the world, and my favorite one is engraved with the phrase 'Give time to civilization, not years to civilization.' "While human beings explore the universe, the universe is also honing human beings.
In the author's view, In 2022, China's science and technology will be self-reliant, open and inclusive, and China in the next ten years will eventually become a global science and technology hub, a talent highland, a theoretical temple, and a product outlet.
After more than a decade's development of high technologies, robots equipped with chips as "brains," sensors as "eyes" and "noses," robotic hands, and algorithms with the right ethics can take care of the work in the physical world, while people's minds can wonder freely in the metaverse.
In general, China in the next decade will become a global science and technology hub, a talent hotspot and an exporter of high-tech.