Editor's Note: Tian Feng is a tech expert based in Beijing who follows frontier technologies closely. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.
重大科學問題、工程技術難題、産業技術問題是推動人類持續進步的源動力，而在百年未有之大變局中，人類正在承受着疫情、洪水、旱災、蟲災、飓風等天災，以及國際上反全球化的貿易挑戰、就業率挑戰、老齡化挑戰，唯有源源不斷的科技創新帶給人類生存發展的希望與方向。
本文從2021年中國已有科技突破入手，據此展望未來近十年的中國科研大方向、大命題與大機遇，偉大的中國必将來自于想象力與創造力。
Major breakthroughs in scientific, engineering and industrial challenges are the driving forces behind the sustained development of human society. The world is undergoing once-in-a-century changes, and humanity is suffering from natural disasters such as floods, droughts and hurricanes, as well as global challenges such as anti-globalization trade disruptions, employment difficulties and aging populations. Only a continuous stream of scientific and technological innovation can bring hope and direction for the continued survival and development of humanity.
Based on the scientific and technological breakthroughs China made in 2021, we can peek into the major development trends of China's science and technology over the next decade.
#01.
地球模拟器預測危機
Earth simulator to predict future crises
地球擁有46億年曆史，而人類文明隻擁有短短5000多萬年的時間，人類的夢想就是在“數字孿生地球”（在虛拟世界裡模拟真實的地球，就像一個虛拟的地球雙胞胎）中，回溯遠古、推演未來大自然與人類文明的變遷。
中科院大氣所的“地球系統模拟裝置”(Earthlab)與歐盟的“目的地地球計劃”異曲同工，通過高性能計算、高精度環境模拟、大資料等技術，模拟地球系統的大氣圈、水圈、冰凍圈、岩石圈、生物圈的實體、化學、生物過程及互相影響，為國家防災減災、應對氣候變化、大氣環境治理等重大問題提供科學支撐。
The Earth has a history of 4.6 billion years, while humanity has only a short history of about 50 million years. Scientists are exploring the use of a "digital twin" of Earth to simulate the planet's past and present, so as to forecast the future paths of the natural world and human civilizations.
Last June, the Institute of Atmospheric Physics under the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) unveiled China's first such scientific project named the Earth System Science Numerical Simulator Facility, or "EarthLab."
It can simulate the physical, chemical and biological evolution of the Earth's atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, lithosphere and biosphere through technologies including high-performance computing, high-precision environmental simulation and big data, so as to provide scientific support for problems such as natural disaster prevention and mitigation and fighting climate change.
Countries including the U.S. and Japan have already built such Earth simulators, and "EarthLab" is comparable to the Europe Union's "Destination Earth" initiative. The project is still in its early development period and will take more than a decade to be upgraded.
#02.
增材制造（3D列印）實作“萬能造物”
3D printing to reinvent manufacturing
工業革命提升的是人類改變世界的能力，在中國未來三到五年發展目标中，增材制造（3D列印）是高檔數控機床和機器人發展戰略的重點裝備技術。
2020年，我國長征五号B運載火箭上搭載“3D列印機”，實作太空3D列印纖維增強複合材料零件；2021年，中國航天科工集團成功列印某型飛行器産品複雜結構，顯著提升飛行器輕量化水準。
3D列印技術在航空、建築、牙醫、珠寶、醫療等領域具有廣泛應用空間，一體化結構設計制造使複雜部件零件數大幅減少，一台列印機能實作多個零件的同時列印，個性化制造時間大幅縮短，裝配簡化，結構可靠性大幅提升。國際上利用鈣基礦物質材料3D列印制造人工骨骼，在可降解材料内部生長血管、骨髓；又如用泡沫狀材料3D列印房子元件，到施工場地現場組裝房屋。在可預見的未來，3D列印将成為小到牙齒、大到星際火箭的萬能造物工具，并把所有制造業重新做一遍，以獲得最高成本效益和生産效能。
In China's industrial development goals for the next three to five years, additive manufacturing, also known as 3D printing, is a key technology in the development strategy of high-grade computerized numerical control (CNC) machine tools and robots.
A Long March-5B rocket launched in May 2020 carried a 3D printer and realized 3D printing of fiber-reinforced composite parts in space for the first time. In 2021, China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation successfully printed aircraft products with complex structures, which significantly reduced the weight of aircraft.
In the foreseeable future, 3D printing technology will be used to manufacture products ranging from something as small as artificial teeth to those as big as interstellar rockets, and reinvent the whole manufacturing industry for maximum cost effectiveness and production efficiency.
#03.
人工智能與宇宙感覺網
Cosmic sensing networks to look deep into the universe
與太空旅遊同步發展的是，宇宙感覺網絡的興起。比如中國天眼FAST射電天文望遠鏡，已經發現了從太陽系到銀河系邊緣的數百顆脈沖星，為未來建立“星際時鐘”（脈沖星計時陣）、“星際導航儀”（脈沖星導航系統）奠定實驗基礎，同時還能進行探測引力波、地外文明通信電波。
中國天眼向全球天文學家開放，每年産生15PB規模的大資料（2GB/秒），按照每周産生3000萬張圖檔來計算，用人工智能自動識别脈沖星，能縮短到3天完成工作，且準确率大幅提升，比純人工效率提升千倍。
未來數十年，中國和全球各國将建立更多的天眼、發射更多的深空探測器，人類将構築起遍布宇宙的感覺網絡，依托持續增長的海量資料生成仿真宇宙模型，從“數字孿生地球”、“數字孿生太陽系”、”數字孿生銀河系“，我們會進入一個無比真實宏大的“原宇宙”。
Accompanying the development of space tourism is the rise of cosmic sensing networks.
For example, China's Five-hundred-meter Aperture Spherical Radio Telescope (FAST), nicknamed the "Eye of Heaven," has discovered hundreds of pulsars from our solar system to the edge of the galaxy, laying the experimental foundation for the future establishment of "interstellar clocks" (pulsar timing arrays) and "interstellar navigation" (pulsar navigation system). FAST is also capable of detecting gravitational waves and communication signals from extraterrestrial civilizations (if they exist).
China's FAST has been open to global scientists since April 2021. It generates 15 petabytes of big data (at a rate of 2 gigabytes/second) every year. It only takes artificial intelligence (AI) three days to process a whole year's data to identify pulsars automatically, with significantly higher efficiency and much greater accuracy.
In the coming decades, China and other countries around the world will build more "eyes" to look deep into space and launch more deep space probes to establish sensing networks across the universe. With the massive data collected by the sensing networks, scientists can even build a "digital twin of the solar system" and a "digital twin of the galaxy," thus getting to know more about the real universe.
#04.
光子晶片助力“量子計算優越性”
Photonic chips to empower 'quantum computing superiority'
伴随傳統矽基晶片面對2納米研發挑戰時，摩爾定律失效。而光子晶片重構邏輯表達結構，不用國外的光刻機也能造晶片，成為量子計算機的核心，是以2019年被應用于光量子計算原型機“九章”中。“九章一号”（76個光子）處理特定問題速度比當今世界第一的超級計算機快100萬億倍，而“九章二号”則比一号機快100倍，且具有可程式設計功能。
2021年，中國第二代光子晶片問世，運作特定循環神經網絡比GPU快100倍，具有超低延遲、高通量、高能效比等優勢。另一方面，2021年我國中科院量子資訊與量子科創研究院成功研制出66比特可程式設計超導量子計算原型機“祖沖之二号”，實作了可程式設計的二維量子行走（而非随機行走）。
在未來十年中，光子晶片将被逐漸應用于自動駕駛、AR眼鏡、量化交易、AI超算中心、機器人等領域，量子計算技術則正在量子通信、量子衛星、大資料處理等方向飛速發展，形成“量子+”産業叢集。
In 2019, photonic chips were used in China's photonic quantum computer prototype "Jiuzhang." Jiuzhang (with 76 detected photons) can process specific problems 100 trillion times faster than the world's most powerful supercomputer. An updated version, Jiuzhang 2.0 (with 113 detected photons), which unveiled in 2021, is 100 times faster than Jiuzhang, and is programmable.
In December 2021, China unveiled its second-generation photonic chip, which features ultra-low latency, high throughput and high energy efficiency.
Meanwhile, in October 2021, China successfully developed the 66-qubit programmable superconducting quantum computer prototype "Zuchongzhi 2.0," which achieved two-dimensional programmable quantum walk (instead of random walk).
Over the next decade, photonic chips will be gradually applied in areas such as autonomous driving, AR glasses, quantitative trading, AI supercomputing data centers and robots.
Quantum computing technology is developing rapidly in areas like quantum communications, quantum satellites and big data processing, with various quantum industries under development.
#05.
AI大裝置與科研“時空機”
AI to revolutionize scientific research
科研中常常是最後一把鑰匙打開了“神殿門”，而人工智能能夠替科學家來測試所有鑰匙。人工智能不僅能依托大資料進行歸納、推理，還能通過機器學習進行未知規則猜想。
上海建設的新型人工智能計算中心是目前亞洲最大的人工智能算力平台，總算力可達3740 Petaflops。
在“AI科研大裝置”（AI超算中心+科研平台）上的颠覆式創新，能夠解決傳統科研中重人工、輕自動化、不确定性高、耗時長等瓶頸問題，人類能夠在新能源、新糧食、新材料、新藥品等基礎科研的部分實驗環節“萬箭齊發”，利用人類整體的“大成智慧”大幅縮小線下實驗的範圍、時間、成本，将寶貴的科研人力從“碰運氣”工作中解放出來，由AI承擔大量反複性嘗試的苦活累活。
例如美國谷歌AlphaZero依靠海量智能算力短時間“暴力破解”（創新）出人類未知的海量新棋譜，又如中國企業商湯科技利用人工智能挖掘蛋白質互相作用、抗癌藥物反應、基于病理圖像的基因突變預測、藥物重定向，發現新老藥物在臨床大資料中的潛在規律，在AI研發大裝置上，打通“臨床醫學影像分析、大資料分析、藥物研發”的三位一體良性循環的科研生産線。人類正在學習掌握一個突破時間、空間限制的“AI科研梯子”，将逐漸收獲擴充活動空間的自動駕駛交通工具、延長自身生命的新藥物、哺育人口的人造肉、氣候治理“大腦”、支撐星際航行的可控核聚變……
In scientific research, it's often the last key on the ring that opens the door. AI with massive computing power can help researchers test all the possible keys before a real breakthrough can be made.
Conventional research relies heavily on manual work, comes with high uncertainty and is usually time-consuming. "AI Infrastructure" (AI data center + research platform) can solve these problems, undertaking the basic research in areas such as new energy, new food, new materials and new medicines and freeing valuable research manpower from the tedious work of repeated experiments.
For example, Chinese company Sensetime uses AI to mine data on protein interactions, reactions to cancer drugs and gene mutation predictions based on pathological image.
The new AI data center built in Shanghai is the largest AI computing platform in Asia, with a computing power of 3,740 petaflops.
AI is revolutionizing research and development in various areas and will contribute to a slew of new tech breakthroughs including automatic driving, new drugs to prolong life expectancy, artificial meat to feed the people and controlled nuclear fusion energy to support interstellar voyages.
#06.
人機媒介催生“萬屏時代”
AR glasses and the 'era of ubiquitous screens'
未來5年，人類将擺脫手機，通過AR眼鏡進入“萬屏時代”，空間皆螢幕，萬物皆互動。在元宇宙中，将産生空間搜尋引擎、空間增值服務、數字人助手等衆多新一代虛實結合的應用形式。
而未來10-20年，将迎來“腦機媒介”的互動更新，2021年我國BrainCo強腦科技已研發出非侵入式的神經接口智能互動裝置，能夠實作“意念書寫”、“仿生手彈鋼琴”等動作意圖追蹤功能，每秒提取2萬個肌電神經電資料，快速、準确地識别使用者意圖，物随心動的腦機物聯網走入現實。
In the next five years, mobile phones will no longer be a necessity for people, as we will enter the "era of ubiquitous screens" with augmented reality (AR) glasses, in which screens are everywhere and everything can interact with each other. In the metaverse we enter through AR glasses, there will be new-generation applications such as space scanning and search engines, digital twin factories, hospitals and communities, as well as digital human assistants.
#07.
能源危機與“太陽容器”
'Artificial sun' promises to solve energy crisis
200年内全球石油資源、天然氣資源将逐漸開發殆盡，但化石能源排放碳就會讓人類陷入頻發的極端氣候災難中，是以人類投入巨資研發風電、光伏、核能、水能等清潔一次能源技術。而地球所有能源的本質都是來自太陽能，“人造太陽”（可控核聚變）成為解決能源危機的終極能源，而超高溫度對容器要求極高。托卡馬克，簡單來說是一種利用磁限制來實作受控核聚變的環形容器。它的中央是一個環形真空，外面圍繞着線圈。通電時，其内部會産生巨大螺旋形磁場，将其中的等離子體加熱到很高溫度，以達到可控核聚變目的。
2021年12月30日，中國科學院合肥物質科學研究院在全超導托卡馬克核聚變實驗裝置再次創造世界紀錄，實作了1056秒的長脈沖高參數等離子體運作，這是目前世界上托卡馬克裝置實作的最長時間高溫等離子體運作。未來，人類一旦掌握了可控核聚變的新能源，就将擁有太空長途旅行的高能動力。
Within 200 years, the global oil and natural gas resources will be exhausted. The carbon emission from fossil energies has already caused frequent extreme weather disasters worldwide. Therefore, countries are investing huge sums in clean energies such as wind power, photovoltaics, nuclear power and hydropower.
Nearly all the energies found on Earth originated from the sun, and scientists are developing "artificial suns" (controlled nuclear fusion reactors) as the ultimate energy solution. A device designed to allow controlled nuclear fusion reactions to happen is called Tokamac, which uses a powerful magnetic field to confine the hot plasma in the shape of a torus.
China's Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST) in Hefei, capital of east China's Anhui Province, has just set a new world record after running at the temperature of 70 million degrees Celsius for as long as 1,056 seconds (over 17 minutes), laying "a solid scientific and experimental foundation toward the running of a fusion reactor," according to the scientist in charge of the experiment.
In the future, nuclear fusion energy will also power humanity's long-distance travels to space.
#08.
碳中和孕育人造糧食
From carbon dioxide to artificial food
聯合國世界糧食計劃署統計表明，2020年全球23.7億人無法獲得足夠食品。國際上研制人造肉、垂直農場，缺點是耗能高、成本高。2021年，中國科學院天津工業生物技術研究所成功研制出人工合成澱粉技術，擺脫“光合作用“、土地資源，利用二氧化碳和電解産生的氫氣合成澱粉，将自然界中的60步縮短為11步，效率是玉米澱粉合成的8.5倍。
按照“光能-電能-化學能”的能源轉化路徑，用光伏發電、光伏電解水出氫氣、氫氣還原二氧化碳為甲醇、生物酶催化劑将甲醇轉化為澱粉，1立方米的生物反應器，相當于5畝土地玉米種植的平均年産量。這一技術既能解決氣候變暖碳中和問題，又能在地球和其他星球上合成“人造澱粉”，10度電換1公斤澱粉，實作了從0到1的曆史性突破。
目前全球人造肉、人造糧食的生産過程還比較昂貴，例如一薄片50美元的人造牛肉，且需要逼真效仿天然肉、主食的口感，實作工業化大生産。是以如何持續降低成本、提升安全性和人造食物味道，将成為未來十年的人類科研重點。
Data from the United Nations World Food Program showed that 2.37 billion people around the world did not have enough food in 2020.
In September 2021, Chinese scientists became the first in the world to develop an artificial method of synthesizing starch from carbon dioxide (CO2).
The new approach by the Tianjin Institute of Industrial Biotechnology of the CAS makes it possible to alter starch production from traditional agricultural planting to industrial manufacturing, which offers a new possibility of making artificial food in the future.
Theoretically, given enough energy supply, based on the current technical parameters, the annual production capacity of starch in a 1-cubic-meter bioreactor equals the annual yield of starch from one-third of a hectare of corn, according to the team.
If the overall cost of the system can be lowered to a level economically comparable with agricultural planting in the future, it is expected to save more than 90 percent of arable land and freshwater, according to the researchers.
And the new approach will also help achieve carbon neutrality and combat global warming.
#09.
新能源交通工具與綠色制氫
New energy vehicles and green hydrogen production
由于運輸行業是世界第三大溫室氣體排放源頭，是以交通工具新能源化是實作氣候目标與可持續交通的有效方法。汽車、船舶、飛機等交通工具采用電力、氫能、天然氣等多種新能源，而氫燃料電池則比電動電池擁有長續航裡程、補能時間快等優點。
2021年，中科院大連化學實體研究所燃料電池系統科學與工程研究中心研制出“兆瓦級質子交換膜（PEM）水電解制氫系統”，經國家電網安徽公司測試，額定産氫速率達到220Nm3/h，峰值産氫達到275Nm3/h，該創新技術具有能耗低、電流密度大、産氣壓力高、抗波動性強、裝置占地面積小等優勢，成為國際綠色制氫的重要發展方向。從氫能生産、配置設定、運輸、加注全鍊條出發，仍有許多技術難題需要攻克，從氫能車、氫能船到氫能飛機，将成為交通電氣化的重要補充，為全球低碳交通作出長期貢獻。
The transportation industry is the third largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in the world, and new energy transition of transportation vehicles is vital for the carbon neutrality goal.
In the near future, not only cars, but also ships and planes will be fueled by a variety of new energies such as electricity, hydrogen and natural gas. Among them, the hydrogen fuel cell has the advantages of long range and short refueling time.
In September 2021, a megawatt-level hydrogen production system using proton exchange membrane (PEM) water electrolysis technology, developed by the Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics under the CAS, realized full capacity operation, laying the technical foundation for the large-scale utilization of green hydrogen energy.
In the future, there will be more hydrogen fuel cars, ships and planes, which will become important supplements for electric transportation vehicles.
#10.
萬物計算與新文藝複興
Ubiquitous computing
當每一個物體都裝上了晶片“大腦”和傳感器“眼睛”、“鼻子”還有機器手“四肢”，擁有正确倫理觀的算法日夜不停地驅動現實世界運轉，而人類的靈感與精神則在元宇宙中自由縱橫。
經過未來十幾年的科技大爆發後，人類将迎來太空時代的新文藝複興，正如劉慈欣在《三體》中所預言：“在第二次文藝複興，第二次啟蒙運動，第四次科技革命等一些列浪潮之下， 人類社會重回正軌。太空軍選擇宣布獨立，成立星艦國際。在大低谷時期結束後數年裡的黃金時代，人們在世界各地建造了無數座紀念碑， 而我最喜歡的一座，上面刻着一句話‘給歲月以文明，而不是給文明以歲月。”當人類探索宇宙的同時，宇宙也在磨練人類。
在筆者眼中，2022年的中國科技自立自強、開放包容，而未來十年的中國終将成為全球科技樞紐、人才高地、理論殿堂、産品出海口。
After more than a decade's development of high technologies, robots equipped with chips as "brains," sensors as "eyes" and "noses," robotic hands, and algorithms with the right ethics can take care of the work in the physical world, while people's minds can wonder freely in the metaverse.
In general, China in the next decade will become a global science and technology hub, a talent hotspot and an exporter of high-tech.