The rise in gas prices has triggered political turmoil in Kazakhstan, experts: the Kazakh government has the ability to maintain stability

The Paper's reporter Liu Hui

Since the 2022 New Year holiday, popular protests have erupted in several regions, including Aktau, the capital of Kazakhstan's Mangistau Oblast, and Almaty, the country's largest city, as oil and gas prices have risen rapidly. On January 5, local time, Kazakh President Tokayev signed a presidential decree approving the resignation of the government, hoping to calm public discontent by reorganizing the government.

The current round of protests began in Zanauzin and Aktau in the mangerstao oblasts of western Kazakhstan and then swept across the country. Videos circulating on social media show that on Jan. 1, citizens gathered in Zanaozin to demand that the government reduce the price of natural gas from 120 tenge (about 1.75 yuan) to 60 tenge (about 0.88 yuan) per liter. Despite subsequent pledges by the state government to lower gas prices, protests and riots spread to more cities in the capital, Nur-Sultan, Almaty, Karaganda, Uralsk, TaldiKergen and Shymkent.

After a few days of fermentation, the socio-economic demands of the protesters have been mixed into the political demands. In some cities, crowds chant "Shal, ket." ("Grandfather, go away.") "), referring to the first president of Kazakhstan, Nazarbayev. Meanwhile, there is no clear leader for this round of protests. Tokayev made a speech calling on the people to remain rational and not to trust false news at home and abroad.

Qiang Xiaoyun, director of the Russian Central Asia Center of the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, said in an interview with the surging news (www.thepaper.cn) that since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, Kazakhstan's domestic economic situation has suffered a certain degree of blow, and it has not fully recovered so far, inflation and unemployment remain high, so the doubling of liquefied gas prices has become the fuse that triggers public opinion.

However, she also analyzed that the Kazakh leadership has the ability to survive the period of political fluctuations, "whether it is Tokayev or Nazarbayev, they have a strong ability to control the political situation in Kazakhstan, and there is a group of people who trust the government, and some internal and external provocations are not enough to shake the overall stability of Kazakhstan." ”

The rise in gas prices has led to an overall increase in prices

Effective 1 January 2022, the price of LNG in Mangers Tao state has doubled from KZT 60 to KZT 120 per litre. Kazakhstan's Ministry of Energy explained that price increases are related to increased demand – natural gas consumption is growing every year, while production remains at the level of previous years. However, the Kazakh people did not buy it and began to hold rallies in protest.

Qiang Xiaoyun observed that the current round of Haliz liquefied gas prices are doubled on the basis of several price increases in 2021, and the number seems to be small, but from 30 tenge to 50 tenge, up to 60 tenge and then to 120 tenge, it is difficult for the public to accept this momentum. At first, only drivers with cars were affected, but as freight rates rose and prices rose across the board, the lives of people without cars also worsened, prompting them to take to the streets.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of Kazakhstan, from January to November 2021, the inflation rate in Kazakhstan increased by 8.0% year-on-year. In terms of price increases, prices of non-food products rose significantly, mainly fuel prices and housing rents.

On 3 January, the Mangerstao state government made its first concession, announcing that the new price of liquefied gas was set at 85 to 90 tenge per liter, but it was not recognized by the public. On the 4th, according to the results of negotiations between the state government and the protesters, the price of liquefied gas fell to 50 tenge per liter. However, protesters still demanded dialogue with Tokayev and made more political demands.

It is worth noting that at this time, the protests have become violent. In several major cities, including Almaty, protesters clashed with security forces, with several police cars set on fire and smashed, and Kazakh security forces fighting back with stun grenades and tear gas. The protests continued until the early morning of the 5th.

Tokaev came up with multiple stability maintenance strategies

At the same time as the protests spread, According to the Harp News Agency, Tokayev delivered a video speech on the evening of January 4, calling on the people to "not trust all kinds of false information from inside or outside." He stressed that the regime remained secure and that the two sides should trust each other and engage in dialogue.

"I would like to reiterate to all of you once again: I appeal to everyone not to take into account all kinds of false information from inside or outside, to participate rashly in the riots created by the demonstrators, to remain calm and restrained, and to make the right decisions... I have faith in everyone's rationality. The peaceful life of yours and the situation of the country as a whole in today's world are also closely linked. Tokayev said.

The Information Service of the President of Kazakhstan subsequently informed that, in view of the intensification of the situation and in order to ensure public safety, Tokayev had signed a decree deciding to impose a state of emergency in Mangistau Oblast and the city of Almaty from 5 January to 19 January, during which the organization and holding of mass activities and strikes were prohibited, and weapons and ammunition in the possession of individuals would be confiscated.

On the morning of the 5th, Tokayev signed a presidential decree accepting the resignation of the government and appointed First Deputy Prime Minister Smylov as acting prime minister. By order, members of the government will continue to perform their duties until the new Cabinet is approved.

Tokayev also held a meeting on the social and economic situation in Kazakhstan on the 5th, at which he admitted that "the government has a special responsibility for indulging the protest situation caused by the increase in the price of natural gas" and proposed a series of countermeasures. Tokayev proposed that there should be a 180-day temporary regulation of liquefied gas, gasoline and diesel prices, that regional civil gas prices should not exceed the level of the end of last year; that the full transition to the sale of liquefied gas through electronic trading platforms and exchanges would be postponed by one year; and that the Attorney-General's Office, together with the agency to protect competition, investigate price manipulation and other anti-competitive practices.

He also directed the implementation of State price regulation for food products of social importance, considered the need to suspend the 180-day moratorium on electricity prices for public utilities for residents, considered the issue of subsidizing the rent of second-hand houses to vulnerable groups in society, drafted the Bankruptcy Law for Natural Persons and established the "For the People of Kazakhstan" fund, funded by private and public funds, to address health and children's issues.

Internal and external factors of political turmoil in Kazakhstan

According to Qiang Xiaoyun's analysis, the internal factors of the current political turmoil in Kazakhstan cannot be ignored, that is, since the autumn of 2020, due to the economic recession in the Eurasian region caused by the new crown epidemic, which has further caused political instability, the trend of extending economic problems brought about by the background of the epidemic to the political level has not stopped. On the other hand, the internal and external provocations that Tokaev said are also worthy of attention.

"The New Year is supposed to be a joyful atmosphere of visiting relatives and friends, and it is not easy to break out in the parade. But if from the perspective of external interference, the New Year is an opportunity to easily provoke incidents, when people have time to discuss people's livelihood issues and also have time to go to the streets," Qiang Xiaoyun said. ”

Almaty Mayor Sargentayev said on the 5th that the situation in the city has been controlled. "Provocateurs at home and abroad seek to destabilize and launch extremist actions. Law enforcement is taking the necessary measures to stabilize the situation and maintain security, peace and tranquillity in Almaty. "Meanwhile, police are arresting demagogues and extremists looking for masterminds.

Speaking to the participants on the 5th, Tokayev stressed that one of the main tasks of the government administration - curbing inflation - is still not completed. According to him, this task will be the top priority of the restructured Hassan government.

Qiang Xiaoyun predicted that the formation of the new government cabinet will not be delayed for too long, "the parade has spread from the western cities to the whole country, and the faster the new government organizes the cabinet, the more conducive it is to stabilize the situation." Only a quick knife to cut through the chaos can quickly calm the people's grievances, otherwise it is easy to be counterattacked. ”

(Intern Zhilin Lu also contributed to this article)

Responsible editor: Hu Zhenqing Photo editor: Le Yufeng

Proofreader: Luan Meng