Liu Jun: The three dialogues between Russia, the United States and Europe will combine fighting and talking

Source: Global Times

Russia and the United States, NATO and the OSCE will begin on the 10th of this month to hold Russian-Us security consultations, Russia-NATO security dialogues, and Russia-OSCE security dialogues in Geneva, Brussels and Vienna. These three dialogues have attracted widespread attention from the international community, and the combination of fighting and talking will become the characteristics of the next stage of the deep game between Russia and the West.

The three dialogues were sparked by two draft security agreements that Russia first presented to the United States and NATO. This is the most direct expression of Russia's security concerns with the West, and it is also the most concentrated embodiment of Russia's national security demands since the end of the Cold War. Previously, the media has exposed the core contents of the two draft agreements, including nato's military deployment back to 1997 before 1997, not allowing Ukraine to join NATO, showing Russia's strategic initiative and "agenda setting" capabilities, while indirectly showing the international community that Russia is a "victim" of NATO's eastward expansion.

The three forthcoming dialogues and consultations each have their own clear purpose for all parties. For Russia: First, by taking the initiative to make a list and draw a red line, it is necessary to force the United States and NATO to make a statement. Second, through dialogue and negotiation, we should relatively ease the increasingly tense confrontation and conflict between Russia and the United States and the West, and gradually make preparations for the dprk, the United States, and the West to lift sanctions against Russia. Third, a certain degree of security is obtained through negotiations where possible, including the non-deployment of offensive weapons in the border areas adjacent to Russia, or the prolonged delay in the initiation of the process of Ukraine and Georgia joining NATO.

Russia's "broken boat" on the issue of Ukraine and NATO's eastward expansion shows that it is ready to meet confrontation with the United States and the West at any level. Therefore, the United States will not risk further angering Moscow and prematurely start the process of Ukraine's accession to NATO.

For the United States and NATO, its purpose is embodied in: First, to ease the tension in eastern Ukraine to a certain extent, and to ensure that the development of the situation will not drag the United States into a military conflict with Russia. Second, restore institutional ties between Russia and NATO, restart the normal operation of the Russian-NATO Council, and ensure a stable and predictable Russian-Western relationship. Third, to a certain extent, it will ease the tense confrontation with Russia, serve the shift of the US strategic focus to the Asia-Pacific region, and occupy a more favorable position in the interaction between China, Russia and the United States in the relationship between major powers.

However, the results of the series of security dialogues between Russia and the United States and NATO will obviously be limited. In Russia's public opinion and cognition, the United States and NATO have long been defined as "enemies" image, and the OSCE, as a regional security organization, can only discuss some issues in principle, not solve them. Eastward expansion and anti-eastward expansion, sanctions and counter-sanctions, confrontation and opposition will always run through the entire process of Russia's relations with the United States and NATO. Therefore, it can be judged from this that the security concerns raised by the Russian side cannot be fully and positively responded to by the United States and NATO, especially the written commitments and legal guarantees mentioned by the Russian side. From the Russian point of view, this is to learn the lessons of the end of the Soviet Union, hoping to get "written assurances" from the United States and NATO, but this is too difficult.

However, it is better to talk than not to talk, and the three security dialogues will play a certain positive role in alleviating the confrontation between the major powers and groups in the core region of Eurasia. Even if the differences are serious, it is still possible to reach a compromise between Russia and the United States on some non-principled issues. In short, since the Ukraine crisis, the geopolitical confrontation between Russia, the United States and Europe in Eurasia has taken shape, and it is difficult to completely eliminate mutual distrust and structural contradictions through several security dialogues and consultations. (The writer is President of The Shanghai Society of Russian, Eastern European and Central Asia, Executive Director of the Russian Research Center of East China Normal University, a key research base of the Ministry of Education)