Three or five minutes a day, an overview of the international situation! Watch over the happy homeland, watch over the peace of China, and watch over world peace. Today, December 31, is the weekend, the end of the month, and the end of 2021. On this special day of retiring the old and welcoming the new, today's watchman will talk to you about the escalating US-Russia conflict!
At 4:30 a.m. Beijing time on the 31st (23:30 Moscow time on December 30), Russian President Putin and US President Joe Biden began to talk on the phone. This is the last day of 2021, the second dialogue between the Russian and US dollars after the video conference held on the 7th of this month.
According to the analysis of the Watch Observation Room, this important call at least revealed such 10 major points, which may affect the entire world pattern in 2022.
1. The timing is extremely special, focusing on the settlement of the US-Russia conflict
According to the analysis of the Watch Observation Room, there are at least several important time nodes in the phone call between the presidents of the two world powers in the United States and Russia, one is that on the last day of 2021, before the threshold of the New Year in 2022, the two sides hope not to bring old problems to the New Year; second, because the situation in Ukraine has escalated, the CONFLICT between the United States and Russia has escalated in a comprehensive way in the military and economic fields, and there is a great danger that a major war is about to erupt, and the leaders of the two sides intend to "cool down" the crisis; the third is to convey to the international community the news that "the conflict situation is generally controllable."
According to public media reports, the call between the US and Russian presidents lasted about 50 minutes. After the meeting, Russian presidential assistant Yuri Ushakov Ushakov said that the talks were very pragmatic and meaningful.
2. Biden warned Putin that a nuclear war cannot be fought, nor will it be won
"Biden stressed more than once in phone talks with Putin that a nuclear war cannot begin and cannot be won." According to the Russian satellite network, Ushakov revealed the news on the 31st.
Ushakov told reporters that Biden said the United States and Russia have the world's largest nuclear reserves. The analysis of the Watch Observation Room believes that in the 50-minute call, the reason why Biden repeatedly mentioned not to fight a nuclear war can at least see the following information:
First, this round of conflict, which is dominated by the United States and Russia, is not far from war, and even a little carelessness may ignite the flames of war at any time, at least Biden has seen the danger of war from the current confrontation between the two militaries of the United States and Russia;
The second is that Biden doesn't want to make things bigger. After all, Biden knows in his heart that if nuclear weapons are triggered, then it will be an unbearable burden for both countries and the world, and no one can afford this tragic representation.
Third, the US side does not dare or is unwilling to overstimulate Russia. According to the report, judging from a statement issued by the Russian side after the talks, Biden promised Putin that he would not deploy offensive weapons in Ukraine. Regardless of whether Biden will say one thing and do one thing, this is at least a positive performance of the US side taking the initiative to show goodwill.
3. Ukraine has become another focus of U.S. attention, perhaps it is just a "smoke bomb"
The U.S.-Russian president's New Year's Eve call was adorable, and one of the most important themes was the Crisis in Ukraine. Judging from the news of the call, Biden said at least two very clear "harsh words" on the Ukraine issue.
First, White House press secretary Psaki issued a statement saying that Biden made it clear to Putin that if Russia further "invades" Ukraine, the United States and its allies and partners will respond decisively.
Second, Biden told Putin that Russia must "downgrade" the situation in Ukraine in order to resolve the deadlock through diplomatic channels. Any "invasion" by Russia against Ukraine will be responded forcefully by the United States.
It can be said that Biden has never attached so much "high" importance to Ukraine, and on the "balance" of the United States, Ukraine has always been a pawn used by the United States.
In fact, at any time, Ukraine is just a "sharp knife" used by the United States to contain or even suppress Russia. If the United States wants to restrain and suppress Russia, it must have an important grip, so the United States will make full use of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, constantly support and encourage Ukraine to launch provocations against Russia from behind, or when the contradictions are stimulated to a certain extent, the United States always comes forward as the "boss" to solve the problem and extracts US interests from it. This is the fundamental purpose of the United States.
More than three weeks ago, on December 7, in a conversation with Putin, Biden reaffirmed his commitment to Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity and warned that Russia would face unprecedented economic penalties if it launched an "aggressive" operation. It can be seen that using Ukraine as an excuse to entangle many countries to impose economic punishment on Russia is another "small calculation" of the United States.
4. Putin draws a red line to Biden: no offensive weapons can be deployed in Ukraine, no new sanctions can be imposed, and no indefinite negotiations can be held
In this call, the words of both sides are full of a strong "smell of gunpowder", and while Biden speaks hard, Putin will not be polite. Judging from public information, Putin has drawn at least 3 "no" red lines to Biden:
First, Putin issued a warning to the US side, clearly telling Biden that Western countries cannot impose new sanctions on Russia, otherwise, it is afraid that it will "completely tear" Russia-US relations, and pointed out that this will be a huge mistake.
Second, offensive weapons cannot be deployed in Ukraine, and NATO forces cannot expand eastward.
Third, Putin stressed to Biden that Russia needs to see a positive outcome in the security talks in January 2022 and cannot negotiate indefinitely. At a video press conference today (31st), Ushakov said: "We need to see an outcome, and the result we want to push is to ensure that Russia's security is guaranteed." ”
While the two sides warned each other, Moscow noted that Putin was "satisfied" with the talks.
5. This is by no means just a dispute between the United States and Russia, but a dispute between the two camps of the United States and Russia
The dispute between the United States and Russia has never been just a dispute between the two countries, and this time is no exception. Let's talk about the United States first, on the eve of the talks, the United States began intensive diplomatic action. On the 29th, Blinken called the British, French and German foreign ministers on the "layout" in advance, emphasizing continuous coordination and cooperation to curb any "aggression" actions taken by Russia against Ukraine.
The foreign ministers of the four countries reiterated their agreement: "Let Russia bear great consequences and pay a high price". On the same day, Blinken spoke with Ukraine's Zelenskiy to discuss efforts to peacefully resolve the conflict in eastern Ukraine and upcoming diplomatic engagement with Russia.
As soon as the call ended, Zelenskiy couldn't wait to cheer himself up on Twitter: "I am assured that the United States will fully support Ukraine in countering Russian aggression." ”
Biden has also spoken with european leaders, and government officials have engaged multilaterally with NATO, the European Union and the OSCE.
Of course, while the United States is ganging up, Russia will also have its own iron brothers. Taking Belarus as an example, on the 29th, Putin announced that the Belarusian and Russian armies will hold military exercises in Belarus in northern Ukraine early next year.
On the 29th, Putin and Lukashenko held a meeting in St. Petersburg for nearly three hours to discuss Russian-Belarusian integration, alliance relations, and cooperation in various fields such as economy, trade, and military.
Putin has decided to continue to strengthen military cooperation between the two countries and hold joint military exercises in February and March next year. Lukashenko has not only expressed his willingness to allow Russia to deploy nuclear weapons on the ground.
On the 29th, Belarusian and Russian pilots jointly carried out patrol tasks in the airspace of the two countries. Lukashenko proposed that Russian Air Force fighter jets be put on combat duty in Belarus. "We have enough bases and we don't need to build new ones," he said. Why waste money. ”
It can be seen that neither the United States nor Russia is "fighting alone", they each represent a "fighting collective".
6. The dispute between the United States and Russia will certainly affect the world pattern
Whether it is military or international influence, the United States and Russia are two world powers, and the conflicts between these two "old rivals" represent the future direction of many major issues to a large extent, and also dominate the world pattern to a large extent.
The idea of world hegemony in the United States is the enemy, and in the financial, energy, military, and other aspects, the international order is moving forward in the direction "designated" by the United States; in the process of wrenching hands with Russia, all kinds of unexpected situations will aggravate the situation and even the overall turmoil, thus bringing a profound impact on the world pattern.
At the same time, the United States and Russia represent not only themselves, but a huge interest group behind them, and the conflict between the two camps will profoundly affect the world pattern. It can be seen that the world pattern in 2022 will have more variables and risks.
7. Russian-U.S. New Year negotiations may be "very difficult"
Judging from the information revealed so far, in 2022, Russia will have at least three intensive talks in January alone: first, on January 10 next year, US and Russian officials will hold bilateral talks; second, on January 12, NATO and Russia will hold meetings; third, on January 13, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe and Russia will hold talks.
In addition, according to US officials, in addition to the bilateral talks between the United States and Russia, Biden will also discuss the last two meetings with Putin.
According to common sense, before such intensive talks, the emergency talks between the presidents of the United States and Russia mean that both sides have "urgent matters" to do, and waiting for a few days may be "wrong", so they immediately decided to talk first. Next January is also the time before the United States claimed that Russia could "invade" Ukraine.
It is worth mentioning that the United States and Russia are still paying more attention to their own concerns; on the one hand, the United States regards the large-scale military build-up of Russian troops near the Ukrainian border as a "major concern"; on the other hand, Russia is extremely dissatisfied with NATO's provocations and threats at the "doorstep", so it has issued a "list" of security guarantees and drawn a "red line" to the United States. Washington has also drawn up a "checklist" for Russia, which will be "reconciled" with Russia after the New Year.
What problems are on the Checklist and how will they be resolved? The negotiations between the United States and Russia in the new year will enter a "war of pulling the stronghold" and will even be "very difficult."
8. The United States will have the same strategic intentions in the Indo-Pacific region
At present, the United States and Russia are fighting openly and secretly around Ukraine, NATO's eastward expansion, energy and the Middle East, and even the high risk of a major war on the verge of breaking out.
However, the world has always been connected, moreover, the united states vision has always been a "world vision", staring at Russia to play a bad idea, the United States is also staring at China in the Indian region to play a crooked idea.
The United States is still spending about $770 billion on its defense budget at a time of high debt, including the Indo-Pacific strategic shift, and now that U.S. troops have withdrawn from Iraq, where is the cost of so many troops? The United States will make a big fuss about gangs in the East China Sea and the South China Sea.
9. In 2022, the conflict between the United States and Russia may further intensify
Overall, this US-Russian presidential dialogue can be summarized as "the contradictions in 2021 have not been resolved and will be resolved in 2022." To some extent, this means that the problems faced by both sides are so difficult that it is difficult to survive through dialogue alone.
For example, on December 7 this year, putin and Biden talks lasted two hours, focusing on the situation around Ukraine, bilateral relations, cybersecurity and the Iran nuclear deal. Embarrassingly, after the talks, the Russian-Ukrainian border issue was not only unresolved, but also quickly heated up.
It is particularly worth mentioning that in 2022, the United States is facing intensifying internal contradictions such as economy, finance and the epidemic, after all, it will provoke new external conflicts to pass on domestic pressure, the most direct means of which is to impose economic sanctions on Russia, but this is a red line that Russia has clearly drawn.
The second is military means, the reason why Biden repeatedly warned Russia not to fight a nuclear war is precisely because Russia has nuclear weapons in its hands that make the United States tremble, otherwise, the United States may have "moved the knife" a long time ago.
10. As long as China and Russia work hand in hand in the new year, the world pattern will not be chaotic
For the world, the only constant is change. In 2021, under the influence of the epidemic of the century, the century-old changes have accelerated and evolved, and scenes of chaos such as the resurgence of the shadow of the Cold War have emerged, from the "occupation of Capitol Hill" to the "Kabul moment", from the collusion between the United States and Taiwan to the conflict between the United States and Russia, and the world has accelerated into a period of turbulent change.
In 2021, China and Russia will always be the most stable security factor in a turbulent world; in 2022, we still firmly believe that as long as the two major powers of China and Russia stand shoulder to shoulder and deepen cooperation back-to-back, the international order will not be chaotic, world justice will not fall, and hegemonism will not win.
Thanks for all the past in 2021, let's move forward together in 2022! I wish the country and the people peace, and may the world be at peace!
Finally, I wish every friend on the other end of the network a Happy New Year!