Editor's Note: Tesla announced on Thursday that it recalled about 475,000 vehicles in the U.S., close to its total global deliveries last year, and the stock price closed down; analysts believe tesla stock price is in this round of correction or close to the potential buying point! why?
By Nicole
On Thursday (December 30), Tesla $TSLA shares fell 1.46% due to the "recall event", and the latest stock price was reported at $1070.34, and the market value is still above the trillion US dollars. On the news side, Tesla recalled about 475,000 vehicles in the United States due to technical defects that could increase the risk of accidents, almost equivalent to its total global deliveries last year. Tesla plans to recall all Model 3 models produced between 2017 and 2020, bringing the total to 356,000 units.
Quotes source: Huasheng Securities
Although Tesla's stock price was frustrated by the recall, there are still Investor's Business Daily articles that throw out the view that Tesla is close to the potential buying point, mainly because it is optimistic about the Q4 delivery data that Tesla will release next, and believes that Tesla's stock price is undergoing W bottom consolidation, if it can break through the $1119 pressure level, this may become a stock price breakthrough point.
How big is the impact of the recall, what is the point of Q4 delivery, and how do the major banks think about the future market of Tesla's stock price? Let's take a look.~
First, after the recall, Tesla Q4 delivery data is about to be released
Tesla expects to release fourth-quarter delivery figures by Jan. 5. According to FactSet, the average agency's expectation for Tesla deliveries is 261,400 Model 3 and Model Y models, 15,500 Model S and Model X models, a total of 276,900 units. In the third quarter of this year, Tesla delivered a total of 241,300 units, exceeding the market expectation of 232,000 units and setting a record high.
Royal Bank of Canada capital markets analysts gave a more optimistic forecast, expecting Tesla deliveries to soar 58% year-on-year in the fourth quarter and 18% sequentially to 285,000 units. Based on this calculation, Tesla's annual delivery volume will reach 913,000. The analyst expects Model 3 and Model Y deliveries in the fourth quarter to rise 69 percent year-over-year to 273,000 units.
Image source: Tesla official website Model 3
The analyst also pointed out that as of September this year, with the surge in sales of new energy electric vehicles, two out of every three electric vehicles in the United States are Tesla. This year, manufacturers such as ford $F and General Motors $GM are facing a shortage of semiconductors, which seems to have limited impact on Tesla.
However, it is worth noting that Tesla's stock price is still facing a lot of pressure:
recall
In addition to this week's recall, Tesla has also carried out several recall operations before, so in the first 10 months, Tesla recalled nearly 3,000 Model 3 and Model Y models due to problems with the front suspension lateral linkage fasteners. The security implications behind the recall have raised concerns among consumers and investors.
Image source: Tesla official website
Premiums have risen
Recently, the "Tesla individual model premium surge" in the Chinese market has triggered a hot discussion in the market, because according to the regulations, starting from the 27th of this month, all new energy vehicles will be insured by exclusive commercial insurance terms, and new energy vehicles have officially entered the era of exclusive insurance. In response, Tesla responded that from the latest statistics on December 30, Tesla's vehicle premium increase was about 10% on the national average, and the premium of the high-performance version of the more concerned model rose within 20% on the national average.
2. Future Market Preview: Wedbush gives a target price of $1400, and Citi maintains a "sell" rating
This week, many investment banks gave the latest views on Tesla's future stock price trend:
Wedbush: Reiterating Tesla's "outperform" rating with a price target of $1400
On Tuesday, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives raised Tesla's price target from $1,100 to $1,400 in a note, saying Tesla shares could rise nearly 30 percent over the next 12 months. He believes Tesla will be in a strong position in 2022, driven by strong demand in China and catalysts such as the opening of new factories in the United States and Germany.
Citi: Raised Tesla's price target to $262 to maintain a "sell" rating
On Thursday, Citi analyst Itay Michaeli raised Tesla's price target to $262 from $236 and maintained the stock's Sell rating. The analyst said that the 2023 earnings forecast for Tesla was raised to reflect strong fourth-quarter trends and improvements in supply and demand dynamics, and the "sell" rating reflected his views on the stock risk/reward at Tesla's current valuation.
Argus: Raised Tesla's price target to $1313 and maintained a "buy" rating
On Thursday, Argus analyst William Selesky raised Tesla's price target from $1,010 to $1,313 and maintained its buy rating; saying Tesla remains the undisputed leader in the electric vehicle industry despite increasing competition, with record shipments offsetting chronic shortages of microprocessor chips and raw materials worldwide, and the company's previously announced Q3 results "far exceeded" expectations.
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