Written by / Zhang Ou
Edited / Tu Yanping
Design / Shi Yuchao
Source/NewsWeek by James McCandless
Tom Standage is a British journalist, writer and editorial director who currently serves as associate editor of the British newspaper The Economist. He is the author of The Turk, The Neptune File, and The Victorian Internet.
In his new book, A Brief History of Motion, he gives a fascinating, colorful account of the historical journey from the invention of the wheel to the advent of the modern automobile.
He also compared the past and the present, culminating in the future of the automotive industry over the next 50 years. As the saying goes, history repeats itself. He saw this countless times in the course of writing the book.
In media interviews, Standach said that it is the discovery of what people have done, felt and told in the past that shows how similar they are to us today.
Even something as modern as car culture originated in the 17th century as a case of private carriage ownership, where wealthy European aristocrats would parade their custom-built carriages in parks.
"From archaeology of history, you can see that some things have surprisingly deep roots. That's what I really like to discover—the things that we've long thought are emerging in modern societies. ”
Through these connections, Standach presents a series of arguments about where the industry will go in terms of car ownership, self-driving cars, transportation, and more over the next 50 years.
Tom Standachy▼
Here are 8 of his predictions for the future of the automotive industry.
We've reached the peak of the car
Over the past few decades, there has been growing evidence to support the theory that society's automobile consumption is peaking. Statach points to long-term trends around the world.
First, the book cites a 2016 survey of 4,500 people by McKinsey & Company that found that 60 percent of Chinese consumers no longer consider car ownership to be a status symbol. 40% of respondents said the rise of alternative modes of transportation makes owning a car seem less important.
A 2019 Accenture Management report surveyed 7,000 people in China, Europe and the United States and found that 78 percent of Chinese respondents would be willing to give up owning a car if there was an autonomous mobility solution. In Europe and the United States, the figures are 55% and 39%, respectively.
In the United States, fewer and fewer teenagers under the age of 16 are getting driver's licenses. Since the 1980s, this proportion has dropped from 46% to 25%.
A 2019 working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research found that car ownership rates for millennials in the United States remain the same as previous generations.
Rising demand has driven up car prices over the past year, but Standach doesn't see this demand as a sustainable trend. While the total number of miles for passengers is on the rise, the total number of cars is not keeping up.
"Although the emergence of COVID-19 has pushed some people from buses to cars, my opinion is that this is only a short-term event." "This doesn't lead to people staying away from public transport permanently, and the desire to travel by car doesn't increase," he said. ”
Technology will become dominant
Statach argues that the most similar situation in history is not the automotive industry of 100 years ago. Instead, it happened when smartphones came along.
In 2007, Nokia had about 50 percent of the mobile phone market share. They think that making smartphones is just adding a little more software to the phone. After the release of the iPhone, the market shifted from companies with hardware expertise to companies with compelling software.
Standach said that this is what is happening in our automotive industry right now. In the near future, companies with the best technology will dominate, not those that can make the best cars.
Software will play a driving role
That's why this shift is already happening.
Statach believes that the most influential automakers of the future are those that excel in software. This is illustrated by the reduction in the number of components required for electric vehicles.
"All the complexities of electric vehicles go into the software. So suddenly, being good at software seems like the only thing that matters. And it's clear that established car companies aren't good at software. ”
He pointed to his car, a Mercedes-Benz A250e plug-in hybrid, saying it felt like its technology was glued to the car, rather than well integrated. But Tesla's dominance in the electric car market is driven by its software advantages.
Standachy believes that if anyone were to challenge Tesla, it would be a startup that excelled in software, not an incumbent car company that suddenly transformed into a new belief. ”
The streets will be rearranged
Statach believes that from the traditional thinking, there is no way to solve the growing traffic problem. And only when the traffic problem is solved, and there is no congested and headache-inducing traffic flow, people will start to think, today I can drive out of the house.
He argues that this is inherently impossible to solve, because we have to accept the fact that when there are more roads, there will be more cars. Therefore, the focus should be on providing more street space for alternative roads such as bike lanes or sidewalks.
The UCLA Transportation Institute proposed in a 2021 report that one way to address traffic congestion is to introduce congestion charges.
The trend around the world is to start returning street space to something other than cars. Over the past century, we've been robbing cars of street space from other users, and it turns out that no amount of street space is enough.
There will be new sources of road funding
He believes that as gasoline vehicles are phased out, plans based on usage per mile are the best way to fund road maintenance.
"Right now, you can impose a gas tax on every mile of road because the more you drive, the more you pay the gas tax. But once people start using electric cars, the gas tax doesn't make sense. ”
In the book, he notes that on a more local level, municipalities will have to set their own tolls to accommodate the rise of self-driving cars.
"Self-driving cars will allow for more nuanced segmented road tolls and congestion charges – adjusting prices based on time, location, vehicle type, number of passengers, traffic levels, thereby improving transport equity."
Subscription mode
In the future, Standach writes, the most popular form of transportation will be the combination of services offered through a "transportation network."
Most people will probably use a combination of services packaged into one service on their transportation for a monthly fee. This model, also known as mobile services, has gained development in cities around the world.
In Helsinki, all you need is an app to let you use trains, taxis, car rentals and other modes of transport. You only have to pay a monthly fee and you can also use the car for free on weekends.
This method will obviously be very convenient, removing some cumbersome steps. In the case of not buying a car, transportation is more convenient and cheaper, so there will be fewer and fewer people who want to buy a car.
Some automakers are adopting a subscription model. Volvo, Porsche and Audi all have monthly subscription plans.
Road trips may require a rental car
Self-driving cars are now becoming mainstream, and if we can finally sleep in a car on our way to our destination, where will small neighborhoods and roadside shops that would otherwise need a temporary break go?
Standach replied that the question shows some of the outdated thinking about cars in modern life.
"When you buy a car, you subconsciously consider whether the car can meet the long distance travel. But in fact, these situations take up very little time in a year. ”
He added that while it is easier to choose other means of transport over cars for excursions (most car trips), in the future, with the upgrading of services, the development of technology, and changes in policies, there is also a good possibility of relying on car rental or carpooling for longer road trips.
High earners become car owners
Standach predicts that after more than 20 years, overall car ownership will return to its roots: The rich will be those who want to bear the cost of car ownership. The rest of the public will be involved in some sort of subscription model.
"I think the rich will want to own a car, and more people will feel that the cost of owning a car is not worth it," he said. Because current trends suggest that the cost of owning a car in an urban environment will be increasingly high. ”
"Transportation will be more diversified." "Once you have to pay for expenses like congestion charges, the costs and procedures of owning a car are inherently more complex than ever," he said. Therefore, as alternative mobility options become cheaper and more accessible via smartphones, this will be the choice for most people. ”
He added that car ownership is not completely gone. We will still have cars, but the number of people who own private cars will start to decrease.