5 million vehicles is the forecast of many authoritative institutions and people on China's new energy vehicle sales in 2022, including the China Automobile Association, Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and many securities analysts.
At the 2022 Dianguan Conference, Li Jinyong, the speaker of the conference, the president of the New Energy Vehicle Branch of the Automobile Chamber of Commerce of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, and the chairman of China Overseas Electric, agreed with this prediction. According to his analysis, high-end intelligent electric vehicles and A00-class intelligent electric vehicles will take the largest share, and annual sales are expected to reach 1.5 million to 2 million.
Some guests also believe that the sales of 5 million vehicles next year may be difficult to achieve, but there is no problem with more than 4 million vehicles. At the same time, the guests all agreed that China's automobile consumers' acceptance and expectations of smart cars are much higher than those of other countries, and the improvement of the level of intelligence and the decline in costs are the keys to the continued rise in sales of new energy vehicles in China.
In addition, Zhou Lijun, president of the E-Car Research Institute, pointed out from the perspective of the evolution of Chinese mouth that we should seize the opportunities of middle age, feminization, singleness and aging.
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5 million vehicles, high-end cars and A00 accounted for 80%.
From the early days of the promotion of new energy vehicles to the present, the market share of models at various levels has changed greatly. In particular, A00-class electric vehicles and high-end electric vehicles mainly B-class and C-class electric vehicles.
Among them, the market share of A00-class electric vehicles peaked at 53% in 2017, and then plummeted below 30%. Starting from 2020, with the hot sales of micro pure electric vehicles such as Hongguang MINI EV, the A00-level market began to climb. From January to September this year, the market share of A00-class electric vehicles rebounded to 28%.
Source: Li Jinyong speech PPT
In terms of high-end electric vehicles, before 2018, the range of choices for Chinese consumers was quite small. However, the emergence of new car manufacturers such as Weilai and Tesla's entry into China, as well as the launch of other joint ventures and high-end models of independent brands, have made the market for medium and large electric vehicles open rapidly. From January to September this year, the market share of B-class and C-class new energy vehicles reached an all-time high of 34%.
Li Jinyong analyzed that with the realization of intelligent cockpit and automatic driving, as well as the continuous decline in related hardware costs, the market share of these two types of new energy vehicles will continue to increase in 2022.
First of all, high-end intelligent electric vehicles represented by Tesla, Weilai, Ideal, BYD (some models), etc., are expected to reach 1.5 million to 2 million vehicles next year, continuing to squeeze the market share of traditional fuel high-end models such as BBA. Among them, Tesla's production may be as high as 650,000 vehicles, and the mass production of the STRONG launch and promotion of the ID. series models may reach 140,000 vehicles.
High-end smart electric vehicle production forecast in 2022
At the same time, Li Jinyong predicts that the production and sales of A00-class electric vehicles in 2022 will also be comparable to high-end electric vehicles, and it is expected to reach 1.5 million to 2 million.
He stressed that under the blessing of the intelligent cockpit, the A00-class electric vehicle is fundamentally different from the traditional micro-fuel passenger car, and in the eyes of consumers, it is a representative of new categories and new fashions, rather than the concept of low-end cars. Coupled with the low cost of use, the A00 car under the intelligent cockpit will take the lead in replacing the same level of fuel vehicles.
Zhou Jiang, the guest of the Electric View Conference and president of Nezha Automobile Trading Company, also agreed that the popular market is not a "low-cost and low-intelligence" market, and what the market really lacks is "affordable and high-intelligence" intelligent electric products. The main model of Nezha Automobile, Nezha V, is an A00-class pure electric.
Li Jinyong added that in 2022, the shortage of chips may also lead to the tilt of car companies' production capacity to high-end models, affecting the output of A00-class models. If the supply of chips is sufficient, the sales of A00-class smart electric vehicles will be unstoppable.
In addition to high-end models and A00-class models, plug-in hybrid models have the advantages of low fuel consumption and no endurance anxiety, coupled with the empowerment of smart cars, in 2022, plug-in hybrid vehicles will increase significantly. Li Jinyong predicts that the production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles next year are expected to reach 1.2 million vehicles, far higher than the level of 500,000 vehicles in 2021, driving more independent brands to continue to rise.
In addition, according to Li Jinyong's analysis, the sales of new energy vehicles will be about 300,000 to 400,000 vehicles in 2022, and the commercial vehicle market will also have about 300,000 to 400,000 vehicles.
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With the blessing of intelligence, new energy vehicles have entered tens of millions of homes
From the operation of vehicles to the outbreak of private cars, from "rich toys" to civilian cars, from the helpless choice of restricted cities to the independent cars of non-restricted cities... China's new energy vehicles have entered the homes of ordinary people and become mass products.
The popularity of new energy vehicles in China is closely related to the rapid development of automobile intelligence.
According to the research data of Yuan Wenbo, a partner at Roland Berger, a guest at the IMC, from 2020, the penetration rate of new cars with intelligent network functions in China will begin to exceed the average level of the global market. By 2025, the penetration rate of intelligent connected vehicles in China is expected to be close to 76%, much higher than the global level of nearly 60%.
Source: Yuan Wenbo Speech PPT
Zhou Lijun, a speaker at the Electric View Conference and president of the E-Car Research Institute, introduced that according to the survey done by the E-Car Research Institute, among the 3,000 survey users, the proportion of users who are willing to buy new energy vehicles is close to 50%, the proportion of choosing oil-electric hybrid is close to 30%, and the proportion of choosing to buy fuel vehicles has dropped from 80% in previous years to more than 20%.
In the user survey of electric vehicles, the satisfaction rate is very high, more than 85%; especially the OTA function of electric vehicles, the satisfaction rate is more than 95%. It is enough to show that smart electric vehicles have begun to seize the user's consumption mind.
Source: Zhou Lijun Speech PPT
More importantly, the willingness of Chinese consumers to pay for the intelligence of cars is very high. According to the survey data, 40% of consumers are willing to pay for fully autonomous driving functions, and more than half of consumers are willing to pay for OTA upgrades.
Li Jinyong believes that China currently has more than 8 million new energy vehicle user base, in the past one or two years, the product power of electric vehicles is rapidly improving, the user's favorability for electric vehicles is also strengthening, Z era users for traditional fuel vehicles brand recognition significantly reduced, affected by these factors of the crowd, the future will also occur fission, and then bring about the increase in new energy vehicles and intelligent car users.
As Zhou Lijun said, from 2021 to 2025, China's auto market will fully enter the era of electrification and intelligence. That is to say, during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, it is likely that China's electrification and intelligence will be the golden stage of development.
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The new four modernizations of users: middle-aged, feminine, single, and elderly
Why is China's new energy vehicle and smart car market exploding? Zhou Lijun analyzed the reasons behind it from the perspective of demographic structure, that is, the "new four modernizations of users" - middle-aged, feminine, single, and elderly.
Zhou Lijun pointed out that China's annual car sales have gone from less than 10 million to more than 10 million and then 20 million, and the core of purchasing power is the post-80s. Therefore, in the past years, many young men got married and bought cars or bought cars after having children, making compact cars or compact SUVs sell particularly well.
However, in recent years, the polarization of the traditional fuel vehicle market is serious: high-end cars are still unlimited, entry-level model sales are dismal, and electric vehicles are suddenly emerging, and sales are hot. The fundamental reason is the huge changes in consumer groups and consumption concepts.
The first is middle age. Many post-80s who have the demand for car purchases are buying cars for the second or even third time, or changing cars, and there is a higher demand for the uniqueness of vehicles, especially intelligence, the so-called consumption upgrade. This part of the user tends to upgrade from the stand-alone version of the car to the network or smart car.
Source: Zhou Lijun speech PPT
The second is feminization. Zhou Lijun believes that in the future 14th and even 15th Five-Year Plan period, female users will continue to increase in the consumer group of electric vehicles, many of whom are post-80s women - in the past decade, many of the people who buy cars are the male masters in the family, and ten years later, the female owners have also begun to buy cars and use cars, especially electric vehicles, mainly for travel.
User surveys show that about half of the micro-electric vehicles represented by Wuling Hongguang MINI EV are sold to Hebei, Shandong, Henan and other places, and the main buyers are women in these provinces. In big cities, more women have the financial resources to buy more expensive models like Tesla and Euler Good Cat, becoming important customers of smart electric vehicles.
The third is singleness. At present, the post-90s generation has joined the consumer army of the automobile market. Unlike the elders, many of these users have cars at home from childhood, marry late, and have the financial ability to buy a car when they are single. Therefore, when they choose a model, it is easy to tend to buy a model different from the elders, and the sporty and intelligent electric model provides them with the opportunity for differentiated consumption.
Finally, there is aging. The number of post-60s consumer groups is large, the financial resources are strong, and the time is sufficient, especially for many retired elderly people, the consumer demand for buying and changing cars is very strong, and they are also high-quality users of intelligent electric vehicles.
Based on the "new four modernizations of users" derived from the evolution of Chinese, Zhou Lijun believes that new energy vehicles will be diversified at the product level, and different models developed for users with different needs are about to come out.
At the same time, Zhou Lijun pointed out that the current potential customers are no longer "little whites" who know little about cars, and many are old drivers. Therefore, the single sales channel dominated by 4S stores in the past is no longer suitable for today's smart electric vehicle market. The three-dimensional sales channels of 4S stores + business circle stores + experience stores + community stores + car pick-up shops can narrow the distance with consumers and successfully sell cars.
Sales channels have changed, and marketing methods have naturally changed, that is, zhou Lijun said refined marketing. In the past, auto marketing was mainly advertised, but now the marketing method should be transformed to digital and intelligent, providing customers with accurate services and experiences for different users and the characteristics of different circles.
Zhou Lijun said that the new four modernizations of new energy vehicle marketing, product diversification, channels are three-dimensional and marketing refinement, not only new car companies are good at, traditional car companies are also practicing.
On the eve of Christmas 2021, Yu Jingming, general manager of SAIC Volkswagen Sales Co., Ltd., and Diess, CEO of Volkswagen Group, personally went down to advertise
On the eve of Christmas 2021, Yu Jingming, general manager of SAIC Volkswagen Sales Co., Ltd., wore a reindeer hairpin and held a fairy magic wand in his hand, and sold id on his Weibo "Fat Head Fish in the Car Circle". 4X, Volkswagen Group CEO Diess answered netizens' questions about Volkswagen electrification on Weibo, without the old posture of traditional car executives and full of marketing sense of new forces.
Obviously, in the face of the surging wave of electrification and intelligence, new and old forces are doing their best to market.
If in the previous years of China's new energy vehicle market, new car manufacturers are taking the initiative to seize the market, the traditional giants usually shout slogans, but the action is to change oil to electricity perfunctory users. Then, starting from 2021, the joint venture represented by Volkswagen should seriously build cars and seriously market.
After all, he is not revolutionary, and can only sit back and wait for his opponents to revolutionize. It is foreseeable that soon, there will be a large number of more grounded products, and a large wave of more pro-user marketing is emerging, and the golden age of China's intelligent electric vehicles is coming.
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