Since Biden took office, a cooperation mechanism between Japan, Australia and India has gradually formed around China, thus serving the INDO-Pacific strategy of the United States and working hard to contain China and contain China.
I have to say that this move of the United States is indeed fierce enough, mobilizing all its most mobilized forces in the Indo-Pacific region.
However, we can't help but ask, does such an alliance really work? Japan, Australia, India, who can pose a substantial threat to China?
The governor believed that this alliance would eventually disintegrate as China grew and grew.
A very simple question is, who does the asia-Pacific region belong to in the future?
Almost anyone who understands the international situation will answer in the affirmative – it belongs to China.
Where is the future of Japan?
Japan has been dreaming of leaving the EU and entering Asia for more than 100 years. It is increasingly ignored by countries in the region, and the economic ties with the United States on the other side of the ocean have not been close enough. Even the United States has always used Japan as a tool and looked down on the Japanese in its eyes. In this context, Japan's future lies in the integration of China, Japan and South Korea, and in the integration of the RCEP16 countries. However, the United States has kidnapped Japan's political arena with military bases and special search departments, and the general environment has not changed, and Japan can only follow the United States in the same direction.
The same thing happened to Australia.
Australia is close to China, Japan, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and is economically complementary to these countries. Chinese capital and businesses are very active in Australia, which is exactly what Australia needs. Australia's abundant agricultural and mineral products can only be digested by the Chinese market. On the other hand, countries such as the United States and Canada, which Australia has been pinning its hopes on, compete with Australia for the market on a global scale, and the brains of the dogs that have been hit have fallen out.
If Japan's anti-China is out of helplessness, Australia's anti-China is more of a kind of brainlessness.
The Australian Parliament has argued about whether to develop a navy – we need to develop a navy, deal with threats from a certain country, and maintain trade routes with a certain country.
Seeing this news, it almost made people laugh to death.
Australia clearly regards China as the main object of discussion, but does not dare to say its name. This scene is similar to the many magicians of Harry Potter discussing Voldemort.
More importantly, Australia has to deal with threats from us while maintaining its trade lanes with us. If this purpose and means are in the opposite direction, there is no ten years of cerebral thrombosis, and it is impossible to say whether it is good or not!
It's complicated in India.
India is currently quite stable in international trade, whether it is transit trade, intermediate trade or commodity imports and exports, it is a mess. According to the data, India's total imports in 2020 are only 368 billion US dollars, of which 60 billion will come from China. In terms of export, it is even more crotch-pulling. Data from November 2021 showed that India exported 30 billion yuan, but imports reached 53 billion. Even if India returns to normal after the epidemic, it is unlikely to make money in international trade, let alone from China.
India's economy is in danger of continuing to deteriorate, and it may even fall into a prolonged chaos like the Philippines and into a debt default like Argentina's. This means that India is highly likely to embark on a closed path in the future. I am afraid that by then, the three countries of the United States, Japan, and Australia will not be able to help him with blood transfusions.
The four countries of the United States, Japan, Australia, and India are essentially allies of interest. The meaning of this alliance of interests is that if you support the United States and fight the United States in the Sino-US confrontation, you will receive rewards and support from the United States.
However, the question arises, in order to contain China, how much money is the United States willing to spend and how much effort is it willing to make in order to contain China and suppress China?
We might wish to refer to the situation in Afghanistan and Iraq.
The data shows that from 2001 to 2021, the United States spent $2.2 trillion in barren Afghanistan. That's a lot of money. Whether it's Australia, Japan or India, they all look at the drooling. The GDP of these three countries in 2020 will be 1.33 trillion yuan in Australia, 4.9 trillion yuan in Japan and 2.62 trillion yuan in India. Imagine that even if the United States divides the money spent on Afghanistan into three parts and divides it into 20 years, it is not a small amount.
However, you should note that the United States may continue to spend this money now, and it will become more and more unable to get its hands on it in the future.
$2 trillion is divided into 20 years, one year is 100 billion, and then distributed to the three countries is 33.3 billion. This little money, to put it bluntly, is the money of several military purchases by Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Compared with the trade with China mentioned above, it is simply not worth mentioning!
Therefore, the so-called "return to the Asia-Pacific" of the United States does not have enough economic support, which is basically an empty phrase.
Once there is a problem, the United States cannot hold enough money, and the so-called Japan-Australia-India alliance is a blank piece of paper.
In Particular, India, the economic situation is deteriorating, just waiting for the United States to cut a few knives and eat big households. If the United States does not bring money, will it immediately turn its face?
India has made a $20 trillion compensation claim to us in 2020, and at the 26th UN Climate Summit this year, India has made another $1 trillion in funding, claiming that it will be used to promote Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction in India.
In the future, India's economy will completely decline, and India will want to let the US garrison troops defend India on the mainland, I am afraid that an airstrip can add hundreds of billions, right?
What is there to worry about such a so-called "alliance"?
Of course, divergent interests and insufficient bundled interests are not the deadliest places in the four countries. Fundamentally, the ultimate development goals of the four countries are very different, and they are in opposite directions, which determines that the four countries will eventually go their separate ways and scatter.
If the United States wants to maintain hegemony in the world, it is impossible to work hard in this part of the Indo-Pacific region, and the annual military expenditure of $700 billion cannot be fully spent on the Indo-Pacific region, or even a third of it. As the U.S. economy becomes more and more crotch-pulling and infrastructure ages, a return to "isolationism" in the future is highly likely to happen. At that time, the most core problem of Americans is to use limited funds for domestic industrialization and infrastructure construction, otherwise, the United States will not even have a home, and what is the strength to tossing outside?
Looking at Japan, Australia, and India, the only way out for these three countries to develop in the long run and stabilize their development is to catch the express train of China's economy.
Like Japan, hooking up with the United States and not willing to let go of Sino-Japanese economic ties, Every major move of China's economy can keep up with it step by step, although it will not be as vigorous and progressive as Southeast Asian countries, but at least it will not be far away.
Like Australia, in order to be a good auxiliary police officer in the Pacific area of the US world police, put down their own work and do not do it, and even three days of fishing and two days of fishing nets for Asia-Pacific cooperation, they will inevitably be marginalized by the Asia-Pacific economic circle in the future.
India? In the future, there will be a struggle between openers and conservatives, and civil unrest and even division may occur. In the future, Pakistan and Bangladesh and Sri Lanka will catch up, what will happen to India? Scattered breakouts?
Therefore, in the long run, as long as we achieve long-term stable development, the US-Japan-Australia-India summit will soon be demise.
So the question is, who will be our biggest threat in the future of Japan, Australia, India?
I think that in the short term, Japan is a greater threat.
The threat of Japan is that the internal right-wing forces and the United States are too powerful, and after the failure of the encirclement, there may be a dog jumping the wall. At that time, we may have to take up economic or military weapons to make a frontal attack. The result may also be very simple, Japan will fail on the one hand, and at the same time thoroughly understand history, recognize reality, and return to the east Asian family.
In the long run, the Indian threat may be unconventional.
In the future, China will inevitably take the Belt and Road Initiative to connect the entire Continent of Asia, Europe and Africa. Among them, India is a link that cannot be bypassed. However, India has long been obsessed and unable to join the whole big family, but instead goes farther and farther, and will collapse sooner or later in the future.
After the collapse of India, the pressure of more than a billion people will inevitably migrate outward, and the trouble may not be small. Just like the worldwide spread of terrorism after the collapse of the Muslim world.
Good words are hard to persuade the damned, and great mercy does not kill people. No one can save the three countries of Japan, Australia, and India from the fire of the United States.