【Introduction】The main factory device has been parked for more than ten days, but the butylone market has not seen a tight price increase. Restricted by the demand side, the high-priced transactions in the market are not smooth, and there are low prices in some areas, resulting in the mentality of the industry to turn short, and the downstream of the market is in the game. At the beginning of this week (August 23), with the improvement of the epidemic prevention and control situation in East China, Lanzhou Petrochemical Nanjing Tank Farm picked up goods returned to normal, while downstream demand continued to be weak, and under the imbalance between supply and demand, some factory quotations began to be lowered, and the market that had been deadlocked for several days appeared at an inflection point. Xiaobian believes that the main reasons for the decline in the market are as follows:
(1) The situation of epidemic prevention and control in East China has improved, and the source of futures has been gradually released before it has improved
On August 22, the Nanjing Municipal Joint Epidemic Prevention and Control Work Headquarters issued a notice on adjusting the health management measures for personnel leaving Ningbo and arriving in Nanjing (No. 10), which is as follows: From August 23, those leaving Nanjing will no longer check nucleic acid test certificates. This means that lanzhou petrochemical Nanjing tank farm pick-up returns to normal, and the early stage of the epidemic and transportation, the supply of goods that were not put into the market in time will be released one after another, and the increase in supply has increased the bearish mood of the industry on the future market. Some manufacturers in order to smoothly ship, the quotation down 100 yuan / ton, the market opened a downward mode.
(2) Factory profits are higher, and prices can float largely
Figure 1 Profit trend chart of domestic butanone enterprises
According to Longzhong information statistics, as of August 23, the profit of the butanone plant was around 3300-3600 yuan / ton, while the higher profit factory could reach 4000 yuan / ton. The higher profit margin also adds variables to the later trend of butanone, and in the case of poor shipments, the operating space of the factory will also become larger. Traders are worried about the risk of the future market, the enthusiasm for high-priced replenishment is not high, plus the early part of East China is greatly affected by the epidemic, some even appear to expand the warehouse, and in the later stage, with the full lifting of the ban on the epidemic in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the market is bound to have a wave of concentrated arrival process, the industry bearish mood is obvious, the selling intention is high, and it is not conducive to the stability of market prices.
(III) PMI continued to decline Terminal demand was sluggish
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 50.4 in July, a significant decline. There has also been a marked decline in the main sub-indexes that reflect production and demand. July and August coincided with the traditional off-season of downstream manufacturing, and the lack of terminal orders was serious, but the upstream raw materials showed high levels of operation, the downstream terminal cost pressure was increasing, plus the export boom was weak, and the downward pressure on the economy was greater. The main downstream of butanone in China, such as coatings, dyes, inks, etc., has slowed down due to weak demand, and has also reduced the purchase of butanone.
On the whole, short-term butanone prices will continue to continue the downward pattern. On the one hand, some of the former futures sources have been released one after another, and the superimposed individual maintenance devices are planned to resume production in recent days, and the increase in supply will drag down prices. On the other hand, the bearers are bearish on the future market, and the intention of holding positions at a high level is not high, and they lower their prices to ensure the rhythm of shipments. It is recommended that operators be cautious about trading, fast in and fast out.