The butanone market is underpowered to rebound

　　Since late May, the downside window for the butanone market has opened and prices have fallen sharply. As of now, the mainstream market quotation is 7500 ~ 7600 yuan (ton price, the same below), down nearly 2000 yuan from the high point in mid-May, a decline of 20%. Although the butanone market currently has signs of rebounding from the decline, industry analysts believe that demand has entered the off-season, coupled with the increase in supply expectations, butanone is not optimistic in the future, and the rebound space is limited.

　　Supply is expected to increase

　　Yang Guangzhi, an analyst at Jinlianchuang, introduced that in June, the butanone market showed signs of a slight rebound, and the price rose by 100 to 200 yuan. After the restart of hebei Zhongjie petrochemical plant, the comprehensive operating rate of domestic butanone enterprises further increased, which had a significant inhibitory effect on the mentality of the industry, but the rise in the market of acetone of raw materials and related products led to a slight rebound in the price of butanone.

　　At present, the inventory of production enterprises is low, the shipment pressure is not large, and the willingness to raise prices is strong. However, the industry is cautious in entering the market and holds a wait-and-see attitude, which makes it difficult for the trading atmosphere to be hot.

　　From the perspective of industry operating rate, with the 30,000 tons / year plant of Hebei Zhongjie Petrochemical returning to normal operation, the industry operating rate increased by 2 percentage points. At present, the maintenance device involves a production capacity of 165,000 tons / year, accounting for 20.75% of the effective production capacity of the country.

　　It is generally believed that after the rapid decline of the butanone market, the middlemen bottomed out the replenishment and downstream purchases led to a slight rebound in the price of butanone. However, in the medium and long term, the load of butanone plants is high, the supply is expected to be sufficient, the fundamentals are obviously empty, and the price of butanone is still likely to continue to explore.

　　Cost support is limited

　　From the perspective of butanone raw material ether post-carbon four, the price of shandong ether post-carbon four was mainly rising, and the overall trading atmosphere was acceptable, but with the end of downstream replenishment, while the terminal oil market weakened, the enthusiasm for downstream goods was reduced. At present, the profit of downstream deep processing has narrowed, the upstream refinery shipment is under pressure, and the price of carbon four after short-term ether may have a certain downward possibility.

　　Zhongyu information analyst Liu Ziyuan introduced that after the upstream industrial gas price fell to a stage low continuously, the enthusiasm for downstream procurement heated up, and the main gasoline collection and production boosted the oil adjustment market, plus the help of crude oil rose sharply, entering the industrial gas price rose by about 300 yuan in June, and the inventory of manufacturers fell to varying degrees. "However, at present, the supply of industrial gas market is still relatively sufficient, the trend of the oil adjustment market is not good, there is no major improvement in terminal demand, and it is expected that the industrial gas market will be stable and weak in the shock adjustment, and the support for the four costs of ether after carbon is limited." Liu Ziyuan analyzed.

　　From a macro level, the recovery of fuel demand in Europe and the United States will open an upward channel for the crude oil futures market, but at this stage, the space for oil prices to continue to break through after rising to a relatively high level is narrowed, or mainly based on high consolidation. In addition, with the advent of hot weather and rainy season, the chemical market has entered the traditional off-season, terminal demand has weakened, the shipment pressure of some enterprises has increased, the chemical market has insufficient momentum, and the ether-carbon four market is difficult to stand alone. Therefore, it is difficult to inject strong momentum into the butanone market on the cost side.

　　Demand is in the off-season

　　The butanone market is greatly influenced by seasonality. The current demand is gradually off-season, and it is difficult to bring a strong support to the butanone market.

　　Adhesives are the most important downstream of butanone. Under the off-season demand, the current operating rate of domestic adhesive production enterprises is low, and the procurement of raw material butanone remains low.

　　In other downstream industries, PU and coatings account for 36% of total demand. Among them, there is substitution in the paint industry, and the demand has a certain relationship with the price of butanone, acetone, toluene and other products. Wang Chunming, general manager of Shandong Ruiyang Chemical Trading Co., Ltd., said that if the price of butanone is too high, the downstream will use alternative products, which will restrict the rebound space of the butanone market to a certain extent. At present, the downstream slurry market is also weak operation, terminal demand continues to be sluggish, just need to enter the market, the market trading atmosphere is light.

　　In addition, the reduction in butanone exports will also increase pressure on the domestic market. Affected by the epidemic, foreign demand has declined, and China's butanone exports have also shrunk to varying degrees. According to incomplete statistics, China exported 10,000 tons of butanone in April, down 57.41% year-on-year and down 9.97% month-on-month; In the first four months, the cumulative export of butanone was 50,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 40.1%.