Butanone: spot shortage, soaring more than 40%

[Energy people are watching, click on the top right corner to add 'Follow']

Zhongyu Information In-depth observation

Since the end of August, the market price of butanone has rebounded rapidly after stopping the decline, and the price has soared, and in less than a month, the spot price has broken through the 8,000 and 9,000 marks, and the rally is almost crazy. Recently, mainly affected by the tight supply, butanone has rarely seen an uncontrolled rally.

Butanone market rises and falls very frequently, from the trend chart, since the beginning of May, the market has experienced a "roller coaster" type of rise and fall and surge stage. At present, the market is already at the highest point of the year, the East China market for example, the current market spot price is as high as 9300 yuan / ton, compared with the late August low rebound of 2800 yuan / ton, an increase of 43%.

In the first half of the year, the price of centralized maintenance of factory equipment fell all the way

From the supply side, in the first half of the year, there were more maintenance of butanone plant equipment, and the output decreased significantly. Among them, the output from January to June this year was about 184,800 tons, down about 27% year-on-year. However, the downstream construction is insufficient, directly inhibiting the consumption of butanone inventory, and the butanone market began to enter a downward channel in May and June, reaching the lowest point of 5800 yuan / ton in the first half of the year.

Inventory gradually digested Cost supports the market's repairive rebound

With the sharp price reduction of the butanone plant, at the beginning of the second half of the year, the cost pressure led to the bottoming out of the butanone market price. After July, Dongming Pear Tree Chemical's 40,000 tons/year butanone plant was shut down for maintenance on July 5, and Xinjiang Dushanzi Tianli's 40,000 tons/year butanone plant was stopped for maintenance on July 20 for more than two months. Coupled with the early Qixiang Huangdao 80,000 tons / year device, Harbin 40,000 tons / year device is still in the state of parking maintenance, butanone manufacturers the overall operating load dropped to near 32%. The supply side continued to be positive for the market, and prices continued to rise.

The device concentrated on resuming work Bearish sentiment is strong

In early August, Harbin Petrochemical, Shandong Qixiang and Dongming Pear Tree plants resumed normal construction. Affected by the concentrated start of the butanone plant device, and the slow recovery of demand, resulting in the increase in the bearish sentiment of the industry, the overall transaction of the butanone market continued to decline, some butanone factories began to actively let the profits go, the market showed a negative downward trend, the trader mentality was bearish, and most of the profits were sold. As a result, inventories in factories and markets have fallen sharply.

Supply outstrips supply and demand The market rebounds rapidly

However, although the factory is concentrated in operation, some factories are affected by the insufficient supply of raw materials, the operating load is not high, and the factory has no inventory after the price reduction. After the digestion of traders' inventories, there is a demand for replenishment, and the shortage of supply has led to a phased shortage of goods in the market. Since late August, the surge has gradually begun. In September, due to the gradual approaching of the double festival, the raw material inventory of some downstream factories was not sufficient, and the stock demand was relatively clear, which became another "strong drug" to promote the rise of butanone.

Butanone as a solvent, if the long-term high price may lead to the downstream use of other solvents to replace, the later period with the accumulation of social inventory, butanone market is likely to appear high and sharp decline phenomenon. At present, some butanone merchants still carry out pre-sale orders, some have been scheduled to after the 25th of this month, but after the Mid-Autumn Festival, some ships arrived at the market, the shortage situation is expected to ease, and it is expected that the short-term domestic butanone market will slow down.

Disclaimer: The above content is reproduced from Zhongyu Information, and the content posted does not represent the position of this platform.

National Energy Information Platform Tel: [phone], Email: [email protected], Address: People's Daily, No. 2 Jintai West Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing