Minsheng Securities: Give Pearl River Beer a buy rating

2021-10-25Minsheng Securities Co., Ltd. Xiong Hang, Wang Yanhai conducted a study on Pearl River Beer and released a research report "2021 Third Quarter Report Review: Product High-end Continues to Advance, Cost Pressure Appears", this report gives a buy rating to Pearl River Beer, and the current stock price is 9.35 yuan.

Pearl River Beer (002461)

1. Overview of the incident

10 months and 22 days, the number of companies released the number of 2021 years of the third quarter report, the first three quarters of the number of revenue of 37.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year +6.02%; the realization of the net profit attributable to the mother of 5.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year +17.69%, the number of basic EPS is 0.27 yuan. In the Q3 single quarter, the number of single quarters achieved revenue of 15.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +0.02%,; and the net profit attributable to the mother was 2.84 billion yuan, +9.54% year-on-year.

2. Analysis and judgment

Several revenues grew in the single digits, and high-end products increased profit growth

21Q3 The company's revenue was flat year-on-year, due to the decline in beer sales in the numbers of 7 and 8 months due to adverse factors such as repeated epidemics and increased rainfall; Affected by the number of Q3, the revenue growth rate in the first three quarters has decreased compared with the growth rate of the number of 21H1, and the number has achieved low single-digit growth year-on-year. The growth rate of net profit in the first three quarters and Q3 was significantly higher than that of the revenue side, due to the continuous advancement of high-end products, which led to the continuous improvement of the overall price plate. By product, the first three quarters of the pure raw series of products is still the main force of high-end products, the growth rate of several revenues is expected to reach double digits, the volume and price have increased year-on-year, of which the number of 97 pure raw sales is expected to double year-on-year. Revenue from the Zero series is expected to increase slightly year-on-year, with sales volumes increasing slightly and prices flat year-on-year. We expect that the company's revenue side will maintain steady growth in the future, the proportion of high-end product revenue represented by pure life and number 97 pure students still has room for improvement, and other products need to be developed and promoted, and the trend of continuous upward net profit driven by high-end products will continue.

The gross profit margin of the number Q3 has declined significantly, and the cost pressure has emerged

The gross profit margin in the first three quarters of the 21st century was 49.14%, -2.42pct (Q3 was 51.41%, year-on-year -4.84pct). The reason for the decline in gross profit margin is that the price of raw materials such as barley and packaging materials has risen significantly in Q3, and the number Q4 is the off-season of operation, the proportion of performance in the whole year is not high, and there is little room for further deterioration of cost pressure. The expense ratio for the first three quarters of the number 21 was 22.74%, -1.96pct (Q3 was 22.84%, year-on-year -1.89pct). Among them, the number of sales expense ratio (year-on-year -0.61pct, number Q3 number year-on-year -0.89pct) and management expense ratio (year-on-year -1.13pct, number Q3 number year-on-year -1.06pct) have improved significantly. The decrease in the number of sales expense ratios was due to the improvement of expense delivery efficiency; the decline in the number of management expense ratios was due to the improvement of operating efficiency; and the number of financial expense ratios improved slightly year-on-year.

3. Investment advice

Based on the first three quarters of operations, we slightly adjusted our profit forecast. The number is expected to be 21-23 years, the company's realized revenue of 45.16/47.46/50.36 billion yuan, +6.3%/+5.1%/+6.1% year-on-year; the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in the expected number of 21-23 years is 6.73/7.36/7.96 billion yuan, +18.2%/+9.3%/+8.2% year-on-year, the number of EPS corresponding to the number of 0.30/0.33/0.36 yuan, and the current stock price corresponding to the number of PE is 30/28/26 times. At present, the company's valuation is lower than the valuation level of the number of beer plates in 2021 and 47 times the number of years (the number of Wind is consistently predicted), the product structure upgrade continues to advance, and the medium and long-term growth is good, in summary, maintaining the "recommended" rating.

IV. Risk Warning:

The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations, the high-end products were blocked, industry competition intensified, and food safety problems were solved

A total of 10 institutions have given ratings in the last 90 days, with 7 buy ratings and 3 overweight ratings; the average target price of institutions in the past 90 days has been 11.1; the Securities Star Valuation Analysis Tool shows that Pearl River Beer (002461) has a good company rating of 3 stars, a good price rating of 2.5 stars, and a valuation comprehensive rating of 3 stars.