Morning Post | the northern region adjacent to the East China soybean oil spot last week more pressing downtime - 20211026

October 26, 2021 Morning Review:

First, the main information of the oil and fat market:

1. U.S. bean export inspection: As of the week of October 21, the export inspection volume of U.S. beans was 2103505 tons, of which 1539053 tons were inspected for Chinese mainland, compared with 2888760 tons in the same period last year; the cumulative inspection of 8129440 tons so far this year was 14782896 tons in the same period last year.

2, U.S. bean production: As of the week of October 24, the U.S. bean harvest rate was 73%, compared with 60% in the previous week, 82% in the same period last year, and the five-year average was 70%.

3, Brazil soybean planting progress: as of last Friday, Brazilian soybean planting is 35.8% complete, due to favorable weather.

Second, the situation of the outer disk:

1, short-term fluctuations: 10 antennas after the support of some technical buying, coupled with the oil and fat rally, Monday's U.S. beans rebounded sharply, closing the main contract U.S. beans 11 up 17 to close at 1237 cents.

2, trend judgment: the fundamentals of the recent visible bearish have been seen, the U.S. beans in the short term decline has no momentum, but the rise is not driven, the market is expected to be shocked in the near future, continue to wait for Chinese demand and South American weather conditions guidance.

Third, the market situation of soybean meal in East China:

1, spot: Yangzhong Dafu continues to shut down, the rest of the oil mills are all started, tracking the oil mill crushing rate reached a high of nearly 90%, the previous limited oil mill pick-up billing increased significantly, due to more outflow and most of the terminal inventory has returned to normal levels, are helpful for the region's pick-up, it is expected that this week's East China oil mills The overall inventory increase is limited, and the total amount will still be lower than the lower edge of the normal range; the oil mill spot sale is not large, the quotation is generally stable, and a total of about 08,000 tons of transactions have been tracked, with a basis of 01+260~ 290, far month some oil mills have quotations, but not tracked to the transaction; pig prices have risen continuously before, some of the better managed farmers have a certain profit, the enthusiasm for the column has increased, today's price fell slightly, the current tracking area outside the three yuan in 8.2 ~ 8.5 yuan / kg or so, but after the temperature dropped after the start of bacon demand plus its own consumption increase, it is expected that the recent pig price decline is limited; pig prices rose and vegetable prices have increased the cost performance of eggs, egg prices in recent days are also rising continuously, the tracking area is now about 5 yuan / kg The goods are faster, and the inventory of each link is generally not much.

2, lian meal 2201 trend analysis and operation suggestions: after the previous continuous decline, the short-term line may enter a low range shock and rebound, and the five averages can maintain a small amount of long and more rolling mode, but at present, we have not seen the conditions for a big rise, so the single amount does not need to be too heavy, and it is better to roll quickly.

Fourth, the east China soybean oil market situation:

1, spot: due to the neighboring northern region last week's crushing shutdown more, part of the demand turned to East China, to East China's already tight supply has brought further tightening, spot basis thus benefited from the rise, but most of the oil mills spot sellable is very small, Jiangsu spot basis rebounded to above 800, oil mills will be november source basis quotation raised to about 01 + 800, some terminals are worried about the later re-curtailment of electricity to affect the supply of actively lock the source of goods, but the farthest source terminal procurement is still more cautious.

2, lian soybean oil 2201 trend analysis and operation suggestions: the middle line is still a strong structure, but 10110 ~ 10120 formed a small downward jump gap, the gap below it is not recommended to consider doing more operations.

5. Explanation: The above views only represent personal views and do not constitute transaction advice, and are hereby explained.