2021: The Middle East continues to be a year of "change" and "chaos"

Source: World Wide Web

In the face of the century-long great changes, the ravages of the century epidemic and the strategic contraction of the United States, the situation in the Middle East in 2021 is prominent, showing a situation in which there is chaos in change, chaos in governance, effective governance, and overall controllability. Based on their own interests, regional governments have adjusted their policies externally to fight the epidemic and economic recovery internally. Therefore, there have been some positive changes in the regional situation, mainly in the following aspects:

First, the regional situation has developed steadily

(1) The positive interaction between major countries in the region has been enhanced

2021 is the 10th anniversary of the outbreak of the "Arab Spring", regional countries are deeply worried about the long-term turmoil in the region, especially the sudden change in the situation in Afghanistan has caused profound changes in regional national strategic cognition, and they are even more disgusted by the US interference in the internal affairs of other countries and the tactics of playing democracy and human rights card pressure attacks, so they have accelerated their response and increased their sense of independence. For example, on August 28, the Baghdad Cooperation and Partnership Summit was held in Baghdad, the iraqi capital, an important meeting to demonstrate reconciliation in the Middle East. The leaders or foreign ministers of Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Turkey attended, most notably the Presence of the Saudi Foreign Minister and the Iranian Foreign Minister; Qatari Emir Tamim met with Egyptian President Sisi and UAE Vice President Al Maktoum; al-Maktoum also held informal meetings with the Iranian foreign minister. Earlier this year, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain announced the resumption of diplomatic relations with Qatar, normalizing bilateral relations. Saudi King Salman's invitation to Qatari Emir Tamim to visit Saudi Arabia has effectively promoted the development of bilateral relations and unity and cooperation within the GCC. With the adjustment of the US Biden administration's policy in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia has taken the lead and begun to resume contacts with Iran, and the dialogue between the two sides has made some progress; on the Yemen issue, the Saudi side has repeatedly released ceasefire and peace talks signals; on the Syrian issue, the Saudi side has relaxed and privately discussed with Syria the issue of Syria's return to the Arab League. Turkey's contractionary, détente side is evident. On the Libya issue, Turkey has shifted from military intervention to diplomatic force, sought relaxation in the eastern Mediterranean, achieved ice-breaking relations with Egypt, and continued to warm up relations with Saudi Arabia. On December 6, UAE National Security Adviser Thanun made a rare visit to Iran, met with Iranian President Rasi, and held talks with Sharmhani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Council. The Associated Press reported that "it was a major visit."

(2) The epidemic situation is still severe

The long-tail effect of the epidemic is prominent, and the inflection point has not yet arrived, especially in Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen and other difficult anti-epidemic tasks. The number of confirmed cases in Iran has exceeded 5 million. Iran's new president, Ibrahim, on September 21. In a speech at the UN General Assembly, Lacey said: "Iran has experienced many waves of COVID-19, with a cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths of nearly 118,000, making it the country with the highest number of deaths in the region."

(3) Slow economic recovery

The changes in the epidemic have become a barometer for the economic development of regional countries. The GDP of many regional countries has shown positive gdp growth to varying degrees, mainly saudi Arabia and other GCC members, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan and Morocco. The overall regional economy grew by 4.1%, and hotspot countries are even more difficult. Recently, international oil prices have risen, the finances of oil-producing countries have been improved, and green transformation initiatives have been proposed. On February 21, the UAE hosted the Abu Dhabi International Defence Exhibition, with 20,000 people attending and 900 exhibitors. China's weapons manufacturing industry ranks second in the world in scale, and its display of the actual-size "Fire Dragon" tactical ballistic missile attracted visitors to stop. On the evening of September 30, Expo 2020 Dubai officially opened. In addition, many large-scale projects have been launched. For example, in order to avoid another sudden runaway of a new channel of the Suez Canal in Egypt, similar to the heavy freighter Changxi, Egyptian President El Sisi "approved the plan to widen the channel of the southern section of the canal on May 11" and "expected to complete it within two years... At present, the dredging operation of the southern section of the canal has begun." On December 1, the Egyptian government took the lead in "moving the capital" with far-reaching influence. In late August, Saudi Arabia announced plans for the development of the digital economy with a total value of about 4 billion riyals. The program is currently the largest digital economy project in the Middle East and North Africa region.

But the pandemic has still brought disaster to some countries in the region, seriously dragging down the economy, especially Lebanon, Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Sudan and South Sudan. Lebanon's economic crisis is on the verge of collapse;

Second, U.S.-Iran relations are changing

At the beginning of this year, after US President Biden took office, he changed the "extreme pressure" measures of his predecessor Trump and began to adjust his policy toward Iran, clearly proposing to "return to the Iranian nuclear agreement" and "lift sanctions against Iran". However, based on its own interests and the containment of the right wing of the Republican Party and pro-Israel forces at home, the US move is by no means an easy task. The United States is still condescending to Iraq, holding the "big stick" high, taking the lead in conducting a "joint military exercise in the Arabian Sea" at sea to exert pressure on Iraq, and also sending missiles to the Syrian border area to strike at pro-Iranian Iraqi militias. On September 9, the U.S. Navy's Central Command announced that the U.S. Fifth Fleet had formed the "Navy's Task Force 59" to deter Iran. The Iranian side reacted strongly to this, believing that it posed a serious threat to its security. Therefore, tit-for-tat and active response. On October 12, Iran held a large-scale air defense exercise.

The United States has "4 fears" against Iran, one is afraid of Iran's strong rise, and it has united with syria, Iraq, lebanon, Allah parties, and Palestinian Hamas to form a broad anti-AMERICAN united front and say no to the United States; second, it is afraid that Iran will use its missiles, drones, and other military equipment to deter the United States stationing troops in the Gulf; third, Iran will unite with Russia and China to carry out strategic cooperation to form a climate; and fourth, Iran will unite with the Afghan Taliban government to dig up the corners of the United States in Central Asia. Iran has been dealing with the United States for decades and is well aware of the ugly face and reactionary nature of the Americans, and in particular, it is deeply disgusted with the United States, so it deals with it cautiously and is deeply afraid of being deceived.

On August 5, Iranian President Rasi agreed to continue dialogue with the United States after taking office. On November 29, the United States and Iran resumed peace talks. The two sides showed their strength to each other, the confrontation was fierce, and bargaining was by no means achieved overnight. Still, both sides hope to reach some compromise.

Third, syria is in turmoil

This year, the political situation in Syria has improved markedly. The Syrian government attaches great importance to maintaining social order, fighting the epidemic, restoring economic construction and improving people's livelihood, and has achieved positive results. Although the United States and other Western countries have continuously increased sanctions against Syria, the Syrian government has withstood the pressure and calmly coped, resulting in the basic return to normal social order in the area under its control, the improvement of economic construction, the improvement of market supply, the broad masses of people began to have a sense of security and freedom of action, and enhanced confidence in the government. On May 26, Syria held a presidential election. Incumbent President Bashar al-Assad won the election and was re-elected. The main reasons are: 1. Bashar is the best candidate. Assad remains firmly in control of two important forces, the ruling party (the Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party). After 10 years of ups and downs, although a small number of people have left the party, they have generally maintained unity, supported Bashar al-Assad, and become the core leading force of the Syrian ruling clique; the second is the armed forces. The army still maintains a basic structure and its vitality still exists. More importantly, the army "obeys orders and obeys commands" and has become a "steel whip" in bashar's hands. 2. The Syrian government's control capacity has been enhanced. The current government controls 65 per cent of the country's land area, including important large and medium-sized cities and surrounding areas, including the capital Damascus. The Syrian government forces are leading the direction of the battlefield, dealing a heavy blow to the opposition forces, making it difficult to organize forces to create social unrest. 3. The will of the people. The Syrian people are deeply suffering from turmoil and urgently hope that Bashar al-Assad will lead them to end the civil war as soon as possible, restore stability, revitalize the economy and improve people's livelihood. 4. The Syrian opposition forces are fragmented, containing each other, weakening day by day, and are at the end of their strong crossbows. 5. Russia, Iran, Lebanon's Allah Party, and Iraqi Shiite militias have supported the Assad regime and helped it tide over a series of difficulties. On September 13, President Bashar al-Assad visited Russia to discuss strengthening military cooperation with President Putin. 6. The international community generally supports the UN-led peace settlement process in Syria, promotes the Geneva Conference, and implements the relevant resolutions of the Security Council. In addition, Arab countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Oman have successively resumed diplomatic relations with Syria. On November 9, UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah led a huge delegation to Visit Syria. This is the first visit since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011. President Bashar al-Assad met on the same day and "sent the clearest signal to date that the Arab world is willing to re-engage with Bashar al-Assad." Saudi Arabia has also acted accordingly in private.

Fourth, regional hot spots, overall cooling

(i) The question of Palestine is more tortuous and complex. Although Pakistan's leaders want to resolve the Palestinian issue through the United Nations and other international organizations, in a video speech to the UnGas on September 24, President Abbas once again called on UN Secretary-General António Guterres to "convene an international peace conference", but the international community reacted coldly. The Palestinian issue has effectively been marginalized. From 10 to 20 May, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict escalated severely. This has brought the Palestinian issue back to the international perspective. On 10 May, Israeli military and police restricted Arabs from entering the Temple Mount for worship, resulting in clashes between the two sides, injuring more than 300 people. That night, Hamas, which controlled Gaza, took advantage of this to intervene in a big way and began to fire rockets into Israel, and the Israeli military quickly returned fire, with casualties on both sides. On 20 May, through Egyptian mediation, Hamas reached a ceasefire with Israel. A ceasefire began on 2 May at 2 a.m. on 21 May. Subsequently, there were many small-scale exchanges of fire between the two sides.

As far as this conflict is concerned, Palestine and Israel have mutual needs and clear objectives. First of all, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu wants to get out of the predicament and continue to govern, in case the power to form a cabinet falls into the hands of the center-left Rapid. The second is to crack down on Hamas's living forces, alienate Hamas's relations with the Pakistani people, weaken its influence, and then make it lose in the Pakistani general election. In addition, it has given the US Biden administration a problem and forced it to choose a side. As a result, the United States has taken israel's side, not only repeatedly preventing the United Nations Security Council from issuing statements urging a Palestinian-Israeli ceasefire, but also urgently exporting $735 million of arms to Israel. Hamas has three main purposes: first, to enhance its own status and influence among the Palestinian people and pave the way for winning the Pakistani general election; second, to arouse the conscience of arab governments and peoples, continue to support Pakistan's just cause, and slow down the process of normalizing relations between some Arab countries and Israel; third, to bring the Pakistani issue back to the international perspective and increase public pressure on Israel, so as to prevent the Palestinian issue from continuing to be marginalized.

(ii) The civil war in Yemen is continuous and the smoke of war is thick. Yemeni government forces and the Houthis continue to fight each other in the north and south. The two sides have attacks and defenses on the battlefield, and it is difficult to defeat the other. On 4 September, the Houthis launched several offensives into the western part of Malibu province. With Saudi-led multinational coalition air support, government forces stubbornly resisted, held their positions, and repelled the other side's attack. At present, the two sides are in a state of stalemate on the battlefield. In addition, the Houthis attacked Saudi Arabia from time to time with drones and missiles.

(iii) Peaceful transition in Libya. The situation in Libya has shifted from war to a political settlement process. Libya's two major forces, the United Government and National Forces, finally sat down and signed a ceasefire agreement on October 23, 2020. In November, the UN-led Libyan Political Dialogue Forum held its first meeting in Tunisia to push for consensus on political arrangements and announced that general elections would be held on December 24 this year. On 5 February, the Liberian Political Dialogue Forum elected Former Libyan Ambassador to Greece, Mohammed. Yunus. Manfi is chairman of the new Presidential Council; Hamid. Debaba is Prime Minister of the Transitional Government. On 10 March, Libya's new Transitional Government (The Government of National Unity) was proclaimed by a vote of confidence in the National Assembly to succeed the Government of National Unity until 24 December, National Election Day. At present, the political situation is relatively calm, but the prospects for a general election are unclear.

(iv) The extremist group Islamic State (IS) has not stopped. This year, the remnants of the "Islamic State" are not willing to lose, and continue to make a fool of themselves, regroup, and carry out rectification and reorganization. In Iraq, the organization was formed in Abu. Ibrahim. Hash meter. The new governing body headed by Kuleshi. Abu, the leader of the Islamic State in Iraq, was reported. Yasser was killed in a U.S.-led coalition airstrike near Kirkuk on January 27. On 11 October, the Iraqi government arrested Sammy Jassim, the late Baghdadi's deputy. In Syria, the armed forces are concentrated mainly in central Syria and the western Euphrates River and desert areas. The leader of al-Qaida's Syrian arm, Liberation of Al-Sham, is based mainly in the vast rural areas of Idlib province, and its leader, Abu Mohammed Al-Jurani, has confronted the Government by establishing his own governing body. At present, they are doing 4 things: 1. open up the Iraq-Syria corridor to expand the scope of activities; 2. Attack government forces and pro-government militias to shake the voice; 3. Strive to seize oil fields to increase financial resources; 4. Establish new strongholds to preserve strength.

Separately, on 15 October, an explosion at a mosque in Kandahar, southern Afghanistan, killed 63 people and injured 83 others. On the same day, Agence France-Presse reported in Kandahar, Afghanistan, that the "Islamic State Khorasan" group claimed responsibility for the attack. On October 8, a suicide attack on a Shiite mosque in Kunduz killed at least 40 people. On November 17, Reuters Washington reported that deborah, special representative of the United Nations Secretary-General for Afghanistan. Lyons told the U.N. Security Council that the Islamic State of Khorasan has grown and is now in power in almost all 34 provinces. She said the number of attacks carried out by the group has increased from 60 in 2020 to 334 this year.

Fifth, the United States adjusts its Middle East policy

After Biden took office at the beginning of this year, while continuing to promote strategic contraction, he made a sharp adjustment to the extreme pro-Israel (Sere)containment (Lang) policy of his predecessor Trump, implemented "correcting chaos", and has begun to implement it. The main ones are:

1. Withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. After the withdrawal of AMERICAN troops, the Taliban armed forces successfully took over power, shocking the world. This is the greatest defeat and shame in the history of the United States military. It marks a long gone end to the days when the United States invaded sovereign states to create a model of American-style "democracy." This has become Biden's biggest failure since taking office. 2. "Return to the Iranian Nuclear Agreement". The United States and Iran have been tossing and turning, and they will not give in to each other, and after the two sides resume negotiations on November 29, there will be a long way to go. 3. With regard to the question of Palestine, we should persist in restoring the "two-state solution." The Biden Administration has resumed normalization of relations with Pakistan and assistance to Pakistan; it advocates promoting the resumption of peace talks between Palestine and Israel. But it is still more virtual and less real. 4. Advocate a peaceful settlement of the Yemeni issue. In response, the US government stopped arms sales to Saudi Arabia involving Yemen and withdrew the Patriot anti-missile force from it. 5. Flaunting "democracy" and "human rights", and raising warnings to Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and other regional allies to reflect the uniqueness of the US Democratic Party and the Republican Party. 6. The United States insists on keeping a small number of troops in Syria to show that the United States should not only increase its chips in the fight with Russia, but also reflect its support for the Syrian opposition. Biden believes Syria cannot be lost.

Nevertheless, the United States will never abandon the Middle East and will continue to control regional affairs. Mainly because: 1. Protect Israel, continue to maintain a "natural alliance" relationship with Israel, and maintain its comparative advantage with Arab countries; 2. Maintain the hegemonic status of the US dollar; 3. Integrate regional allies. Under the leadership of the United States, it co-manages the affairs of the Middle East. In this way, the enthusiasm of regional allies can be mobilized and their role can be brought into play; second, it can reduce investment and save strategic resources without the need for "doing everything personally"; third, it can be remotely controlled offshore and play the role of the company's "chairman". 4 The International Alliance can continue to be used to combat extremist forces such as the Islamic State to flaunt the United States' continued counter-terrorism.

In view of the superposition of various contradictions in the region, the entanglement of various contradictions, the accumulation of heavy burdens, the united States moving, the old problems are unresolved, new problems will emerge again, coupled with the "Islamic State" and other extremist forces and terrorism can breathe a chance, will certainly regroup and stir up trouble, resulting in regional instability and uncertainty factors will further increase. The Middle East will continue to be chaotic because of the US move. (The author Liu Baolai is a former vice president of the Chinese-People's Institute of Foreign Affairs, a former ambassador to the United Arab Emirates and Jordan, and a senior researcher at the China Foundation for International Studies)