Qiu Yi: Tsai Ing-wen wants to engage in "substantive Taiwan independence," but the situation is stronger than the people, and if she is not sure, she will wipe out the gun and go off the fire

Source: Global Times - Global Network

The 2022 Global Times Annual Conference was held in Beijing on December 11, and the theme of this annual meeting was "The World Is Looking for a Turnaround, China Breaks the Waves". In the "Situation in the Taiwan Strait, Will the DPP Be Desperate to Take Risks?" In the topic, Qiu Yi, a professor at Taiwan Culture University, said that the answer to this question should be judged by subjective will and objective situation.

Qiu Yi held that from the subjective will, Tsai Ing-wen will not advocate "Taiwan independence," will not declare "de jure Taiwan independence," will not engage in nuclear weapons, will not even allow the United States to station a large number of troops in Taiwan, and will not allow Taiwan to "establish diplomatic relations" with the United States and Japan and join the United Nations. Tsai's political character doesn't do that. But what is Tsai Ing-wen doing? What she did was "Taiwan independence" in essence, that is, there was no "Taiwan independence" name, there was a reality of "Taiwan independence," and she adopted the method of "cutting sausages," rubbing the side ball, and running in small steps, so that Taiwan had the reality of "Taiwan independence," but did not have the name of "Taiwan independence." Tsai's aim is to gain political power, overall victory, and on May 20, 2024, a safe "downfall."

However, Qiu Yi mentioned that the situation is stronger than people. First of all, Tsai Ing-wen wants to engage in "substantive Taiwan independence," and once the policy is not precise, it is possible to "wipe the gun and go astray." Second, Tsai Ing-wen wants to lead the DPP to win the election, and if the DPP loses its "right to govern," a lot of corruption will be pulled out, and in the end it will be difficult to escape the same result as Chen Shui-bian, so the election must be won. Elections are the most difficult to grasp, and once the election is not smooth, it is necessary to strengthen the strength, which may lead to "shooting off the gun". Third, "seeking independence" needs to spend money, Taiwan's finances are just a little, the money is spent on self-defense, or buy weapons from the United States, it will neglect the construction of people's livelihood, Taiwan's economy cannot be good, in order to shift the focus, Tsai Ing-wen must raise the tone of "resisting and defending Taiwan," so that the possibility of "wiping the gun and going out of the fire" will increase.

Qiu Yi said that from the subjective and objective aspects, the DPP led by Tsai Ing-wen will not subjectively take risks, but objectively it is possible.