2022 is a pivotal turning point for real estate

At the end of last week, the four major departments jointly responded to Evergrande's problems and unanimously agreed that Evergrande Group's poor management and blind diversification and expansion eventually led to a risk outbreak, which was a case risk. Whether it is a case risk or not we don't know, but one of China's largest real estate developers lies flat, and another Head Enterprise of Chinese Liquor cannot sit still, and this head liquor company is Yanghe. When Yanghe issued an announcement on Friday, it was considered to have broken through this layer of window paper. Yanghe said in the announcement that the 190 millionth trust loan of Evergrande Guiyang Project, with CITIC Trust as the trustee, as well as the principal of 0.73 billion yuan and the expected investment income of 95 million yuan, have not been recovered. At present, CITIC Trust has initiated judicial disposal procedures to recover creditor's rights in accordance with the law and urge the relevant parties of Evergrande Group to perform their repayment. According to the semi-annual report of Yanghe Shares, as of June 2021, Moyanghe used its own funds to purchase entrusted wealth management products, and the existing balance was 10.582 billion, of which. Bank wealth management products 4.809 billion, trust products 57.741. Among these trust products, nine trust products are invested in evergrande and its related party projects, there are four avatars, Baoneng system, and R&F, Sunac, Blu-ray, Sunshine City, etc. are also involved, and the total amount of these trust products is 3.26 billion yuan. Then, on December 6, Sunshine 100, one of the top 100 real estate companies, released inside information, saying that it had 1:170 million DOLLAR debt that could not be repaid, admitting that it had defaulted. The explosion of Sunshine 100 is somewhat surprising, after all, this real estate company has never taken the king of the land, nor can it be called crazy expansion. Yi Xiaodi of Sunshine 100 once said that if the real estate continues to go crazy, the people who take the land king are estimated to continue to make money, but I don't envy them, because this is what they risked. That is to say, even such housing enterprises are still under this round of crisis. Of course, Sunshine 100. It is not the first housing enterprise to fall, but it will not be the last, because this year is not the most difficult time for housing enterprises, and the real difficulty is actually next year. According to statistics, the total maturity of real estate dollar bonds in 2021 is 58.63 billion US dollars, and the maturity pressure is mainly concentrated in March and April. In addition, there are still US$1.57 billion of bonds facing maturity redemption in December, while the total maturity of real estate DOLLAR bonds next year will reach 61.79 billion US dollars, about 393.58 billion yuan, and the redemption pressure will rise further than this year. Among them, january to July next year is the peak maturity of real estate dollar bonds, with a total maturity of $46.28 billion, accounting for about 70% of the annual maturity. During this period, the maturity of bonds in 13467 was the most concentrated, with a monthly maturity of more than $7.5 billion. Specifically, Evergrande, Kaisa, Greenland, R&F and other housing enterprises. Next year, the maturity of real estate dollar bonds will be in the forefront, in fact, these can still be seen, and more mines are a large number of invisible dispersions buried in 2345 tier cities. For example, shijiazhuang, China's most famous black provincial capital under the lights, on August 18, 2021, the local police issued a public notice, 16 real estate development companies were investigated, two of which were foreign enterprises, 14 were local enterprises in Hebei, involving more than 50 problem buildings. Although the police have intervened and filed a case to investigate, and some legal representatives have been criminally detained, the dilemma faced by the government is that most of these housing enterprises are leather bag companies, there is no money on the books, and the local government has limited strength and cannot be mobilized. Institutions such as provincial governments, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, and the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission are, at best, courts seizing assets and freezing the assets of legal persons, but how much can they play? The court seized most of these enterprises as leather bag companies, and the assets froze on these enterprises. How many assets can there be on the books? Legal person detention is a bad retribution, but for home buyers to deal with, how much significance can such problems be, and how much can the goal of repaying money or handing over the house be achieved? And this is not only a problem in Shijiazhuang, no matter which city, almost more or less, especially in today's credit collapse property market. We know that an industry can continuously attract capital inflows, because the industry has credit, and its credit is reflected in the long-term rise in the price of industry products, or based on the needs of people's lives, the scale of the industry market continues to expand, which can bring stable or even higher and higher returns to capital. In the past 20 years, the property market has established its own credit in this way, so that banks, trusts and other financial institutions can continue to invest capital in real estate without risk awareness, promote the continuous development and growth of the real estate industry, and local governments have also obtained more and more land fiscal revenue, which will escort real estate and become real estate enterprises. After obtaining a large amount of financing, the ability to promote price increases is stronger, so that the credit of the industry is continuously strengthened. Because the property market has established its own long-term credit, it will make people more and more enthusiastic about investing in real estate. The main motivation for their investment is that the property market will continue to rise in price, bringing price returns to themselves, and most housing enterprises have sufficient funds, and there will be no bad tails. When the above expectations continue to strengthen, after the house price has been rising, people can even pull out six wallets to buy. Therefore, the reason why the real estate industry has come to this day is essentially the result of the continuous accumulation of credit, and the fundamental way to crush an industry is to make him lose credit. When any industry loses credit, capital immediately stays away, and the same is true for the real estate industry. But unfortunately, this year is a year of rapid loss of credit in the real estate industry, wealth management products continue to have difficulties in payment, the loss of credit for financial funds, and the threat of liquidity difficulties in some head real estate enterprises is the letter to the bank. Local currency bonds and foreign exchange bonds are difficult to redeem one after another, threatening the credit of financial institutions inside and outside the country, and the continuous emergence of projects that stop work and tails threaten the credit of home buyers. When the real estate industry continues to lose credit, the cost of financing will rise, the difficulty of financing will increase, and sales will shrink, ultimately threatening its own capital chain and liquidity. But for China, because the government controls financial institutions, it fundamentally controls financing the real estate sector. Therefore, after the real estate industry loses credit, although social funds will stay away, the impact is not fatal, because the government can order financial institutions to ease the financial situation of the real estate industry, especially state-owned housing enterprises. We also see that since October, the real estate policy is constantly picking up, according to the past law, housing enterprises should begin to enthusiastically take land, and even hold the plate for sale, in order to push up the price, children buyers will also accelerate the entry to reverse the decline in sales of housing enterprises, but now it has appeared. Anomalies. According to Kerry data, in November 2021, the top 100 housing enterprises achieved sales of 750.78 billion yuan, and the scale of single-month performance fell by 3.4% compared with October, and the decline in October 2020 expanded to 37.6%, and sales were still accelerating. Specifically, Evergrande's sales in November were zero, of course, the actual sales are not necessarily completely zero, but compared with the sales of tens of billions in the past, it must be pitifully small, such as only tens of millions, which is equivalent to zero for these large housing enterprises. In addition, Country Garden decreased by 1/3 year-on-year, Sunac decreased by 47%, Greenfield decreased by 55.7%, and even Poly, which seemed to be very strong, decreased by 5.7% year-on-year. It can be seen that the overall sales situation in November was indeed very poor. Also according to the data released by Kerry, commercial housing transactions in 29 key cities in November. The area fell by 4% month-on-month and 32% year-on-year, indicating that the market is still in a downward trend. At present, housing enterprises in second- and third-tier cities are still increasing their discounts, and Tianjin even introduced a power ration order in late November, which is evidence that the real estate market is still declining. This shows that the policy pick-up in October did not stimulate buyers to accelerate their entry, and the industry's untrustworthiness is certainly the main reason. People's insensitivity to good and bad phenomena should be paid attention to, and it is easy to form a relatively large turning point at this time. Even if regulatory measures such as the price guide for second-hand houses are eliminated now, the impact may not be immediately eliminated, because people do not know when such policies will appear again. In addition to the impact of the accelerated dishonesty of the real estate industry on the property market, another factor is also a matter of concern, in the past in the real estate industry,during the rising period of the real estate industry, local governments can obtain more and more land fiscal revenue, while at the same time constantly pushing up the truth of the civil service group. Income level. A lot of this money has also been used to buy a house, further promoting the property market, which is a positive cycle process. However, at present, there have been reports on the Internet that civil servants in some areas have been owed wages or their real incomes have been cut, and it is necessary to be vigilant about whether this will bring the property market into a negative cycle. Obviously, a dishonest industry will inevitably need a relatively large adjustment, and when the adjustment is really over and people recover a little confidence, they will have a chance. So, 2022 is likely to be a pivotal turning point for the real estate industry, which is something to be wary of. In recent years, the country is entering a new trend of gradually decreasing total population, which means that the total demand for housing will continue to decline, but local governments are still building houses. Therefore, those cities with net population outflows, their real estate era has passed, no longer have to hold illusions, local opportunities will only appear in those cities where the industry is competitive and there is a continuous influx of people. For those cities where opportunities still exist, place Yay. There is an incentive to continue to promote the property market, after all, this can bring real money and silver to local governments. In the future, since the industry has lost faith, it means that the difficulty of pre-sale will become more and more difficult, and more companies can only return to the model of existing house sales. Because for home buyers, in the case of untrustworthiness in the real estate industry, choosing an existing house can avoid huge uncertainties and avoid bringing huge risks to themselves and their families, so the sale of existing houses is expected to become the choice of many housing companies.

real estate