Dongxing Securities: The first "strong push" rating given to Bowling Po (002286.SZ) is optimistic that the erythritol and allulose businesses have entered the harvest period

Zhitong Finance APP learned that Dongxing Securities released a research report saying that the first Bowling (002286.SZ) "highly recommended" rating, is expected to 2021-22 net profit of 165/200 million yuan, corresponding to EPS of 0.45/0.54 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to a PE value of 26.99 times in 2022, and it is optimistic that the erythritol and allulose businesses have entered the harvest period.

The main views of Dongxing Securities are as follows:

Bowling treasure is the domestic functional sugar industry leader, the company has formed a complete starch - starch sugar - functional sugar - functional sugar - pharmaceutical raw materials - prebiotic terminal of the high and low pyramid product structure, to provide a comprehensive functional oligosaccharides, functional dietary fiber, functional sugar alcohol application programs, products and services. With the trend of healthy development in the future, erythritol is an important core business for the company's future development, and with the approval of the alulose policy, allulose is expected to become a new growth point for the company.

Under the trend of consumers' explosive demand for health drinks, the rise of sugar-free drinks in China still has a lot of room for growth in the future. From 2014 to 2019, China's sugar-free beverage sales CAGR 40%+, but its proportion in beverages is only 1.25%, and there is still a lot of room for growth in the future. Among them, China's sugar-free tea accounted for only 5.2% of tea beverages in 2019, with Japan (70%), Australia (44.4%) and other countries with a large gap.

Sugar-free cola carbonated beverages account for 3.4% of cola-type carbonated beverages, while European and American countries account for more than 30%, and China has at least ten times more room for improvement compared with European and American countries. According to the forecast of the consulting company, the total global demand for erythritol in 2022 is 173,000 tons, and erythritol will become the basic ingredient of various sugar-free beverages in the future, and the market size of erythritol is expected to reach about 350,000 tons in the next 5 years.

Allulose, the future star sugar substitute.

Allulose has the advantages of regulating blood sugar, low calories, being able to react Merlard and tasting close to sucrose, and has been evaluated by the American Food Navigation Network as the most promising alternative to sucrose. It is mainly used in concocted milk, flavored fermented milk, pastries, tea drinks, jelly and other products, and has high edible safety. At present, allulose has not been approved for use in China, but at present, it is used as zero sugar in the United States, and it can be expected that allulose will also be a very good sugar substitute product after being approved in China.

The company's erythritol and allulose business processes are industry-leading, and are expected to expand rapidly with the release of production capacity.

The company is the first in China to complete the industrial production of erythritol, and is currently an important domestic erythritol manufacturer. At the same time, the company at the same time mastered the solid, liquid allulose production process, solid allulose research and development is difficult, the company is currently one of the few on the market can produce solid allulose enterprises, the technology is relatively stable and mature, product quality has reached the international indicators of similar products, the company will continue to expand production capacity in the future, with the rapid growth of industry demand, this part of the business will bring new growth points to the company in the future.

Risk Warning: The epidemic has affected the needs of the industry; Too much capacity roll-in led to a decline in erythritol prices.