Reporter | Li Yimeng Edit |
Like every artist who comes to the stage for applause, Santana will eventually usher in an inevitable curtain call. However, unlike the one in Germany in 2012, this time it may not be able to return to the field again in the sound of "Encore".
Since entering November, rumors about the imminent discontinuation of Volkswagen Santana models have appeared in almost every corner of the automotive circle.
Sources quoted the SAIC Volkswagen Yizheng factory 2022-2023 model technical transformation project plan said that the plant's current production of the new Santana, Santana Horner, Xinrui, Xindong, Tuyue and other 5 models will be zero after the technological transformation. The annual production capacity of the new Santana and Santana Horner models before the renovation was 224,400 units and 18,000 units, respectively.
In the future, the annual production capacity of SAIC Volkswagen Yizheng Plant will be allocated to four models such as the mid-term modification of Tuyue, the replacement of Lingdu, Polo and Tujiao.
This means that volkswagen Santana models will say goodbye to the market once and for all.
In this regard, Interface News asked many parties for verification. The Volkswagen China VW brand did not give an immediate response to the news.
SAIC Volkswagen insiders revealed to Interface News that the current suspension of Santana's suspension is "still in an undetermined state, and the exact news may be announced next year." The person said that even if Santana stops production at that time, it will only be a normal replacement of the product by the company.
Saic's Volkswagen Yizheng factory almost confirmed the news in its reply. Relevant people said that due to the need for product upgrades, the factory plans to "suspend the production of Santana models from next year."
"Discontinuation does not mean abandonment." He stressed.
Although none of the above stakeholders spoke in their responses about the reasons for Santana's discontinuation, it is almost certain that there is no clear correlation between this product adjustment plan and the market performance of the model.
Up to now, the SAIC Volkswagen Santana brand has served 6.24 million Chinese car owners in more than 30 years of market exploration.
Sales data from January to September this year shows that the cumulative sales of the Santana brand exceeded 126,000 units, close to the market performance of mid-sized sedans such as Toyota Camry, Honda Accord, and Nissan Tianlai.
In the cumulative retail sales of 994701 vehicles in the first three quarters of SAIC Volkswagen, the sales of the Santana brand accounted for more than 12%. In the past October, its sales also reached 11,259 vehicles, and the average monthly sales volume was stable at more than 10,000 vehicles.
Compliance considerations in environmental aspects were cited as an important reason for Santana's exit from the market.
According to the current "double integral" regulatory regulations implemented in China's automobile market, in the given production cycle, automobile manufacturing enterprises will be subject to penalties such as suspension of declaration of high fuel consumption products and suspension of production of high fuel consumption products if they cannot be compensated by their own generation or external purchases, and then meet the standards.
According to public data, SAIC Volkswagen's average fuel consumption (liters/100 kilometers) in 2020 is 5.18 liters, compared with Santana's fuel consumption per 100 kilometers is 5.6 liters. This means that every Santana pulls off the production line generates 0.42 negative points for the automaker to deal with.
In addition, Santana's narrowing profit margins may also be one of the reasons for the discontinuation of the model.
"Judging from the plan of product adjustment after the technical transformation of SAIC Volkswagen Yizheng Factory, the planned discontinued models are all entry-level models with relatively low bicycle profits." Piestron consulting firm Automotive analyst Rayong said.
At present, the official guidance price range of the Santana brand (including the new Santana and Santana Horner) is 86,900-115,900 yuan, while the actual transaction price is basically maintained in the range of 66,900-95,900 yuan.
"Even according to the official guidance price, it is difficult to generate a profit of more than 10,000 yuan for the sale of a Santana, and then it is difficult to meet the profit margin requirements of SAIC." Rayong said. Saic Motor's financial report for the first three quarters released in November showed that the gross profit margin of the group during the above inspection period reached 11.48%.
Rayong added that the PQ25 platform on which Santana models are manufactured has technical obsolescence, and its derivatives have limitations in terms of market competitiveness and premium space. Therefore, it is also a move for companies to abandon the platform by discontinuing the Santana model and instead devote more resources to the development and manufacturing of new platform products.
In fact, FAW-Volkswagen made a decision to discontinue the Jetta model, which is also based on the PQ25 platform, as early as 2019, and created the Jetta brand based on other more advanced platforms (such as MQB).
What's more, Santana's failure to meet the double credit requirement will also result in additional costs incurred by businesses, further reducing the model's profitability.
Based on the -0.42 points generated by the bicycle, the Santana models sold by SAIC Volkswagen as of October this year have generated about 58,000 negative points for the company.
According to the results of the joint study on the 2021 integral price forecast released by China Automobile Data in August this year, the mainstream price range of new energy vehicle credits in 2021 is 2600-2900 yuan / min.
Li Jinyong, executive president of the Automobile Dealers Chamber of Commerce of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce and president of the New Energy Vehicle Branch of the Automobile Chamber of Commerce of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, predicted that "new energy credits are in serious short supply in 2020 and 2021, and a new energy credit is worth 3,000 yuan at the end of 2020, and will exceed 5,000 yuan / point at the end of 2021, and the price of points in 2022 is higher, and it is expected to be 6,000-10,000 yuan / min."
For example, according to the transaction price of 3,000 yuan / cent, SAIC Volkswagen will need to bear 174 million yuan of additional expenses this year to compensate for the negative points generated by santana models, and if calculated according to 5,000 yuan / min, this fee will be increased to 290 million yuan.
"According to the standard of 5,000 yuan / cent, it will take 2,100 yuan to meet the cost of a Santana negative points, and the profit margin of the bicycle will be reduced by 1.8%-2.4%." Luo Yong analyzed, "This is also the reason why SAIC Volkswagen began to accelerate the popularization of the I.D. family of pure electric vehicle models. ”
According to the average fuel consumption and new energy vehicle credits of Chinese passenger car enterprises in 2020 announced by the First Department of Equipment Industry of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China on April 9, the average fuel consumption points and new energy vehicle credits of SAIC Volkswagen in the previous year were -689628 points and -92888 points, respectively, and the total points were -782666 points. For example, according to the price of 3,000 yuan per cent, saic-Volkswagen's expenditure on the satisfaction of negative points has reached nearly 2.35 billion yuan.
From this point of view, Santana's bid farewell to the stage in the low-carbon era is also an inevitability.
Although there is no final decision on Santana's suspension of production, a round of remembrance has begun on the Internet. This may be because most Chinese have clearly felt the connection between the car and public life from this classic model.
To this day, some older Shanghainese can vividly recall that Santana taxis started slightly higher than other models.
In the 1990s, there were two main types of taxis that shuttled through the streets of Shanghai, namely Xiali produced by Tianjin FAW and Santana produced by Shanghai Volkswagen (later renamed "SAIC Volkswagen"), the former with a starting price of 10.8 yuan, and Santana, which was located in a medium-sized car, set the starting price at 14.4 yuan because it could provide more rear space and a more comfortable riding experience.
"XiaLi drove up and down and shook left and right, and the mulberry car was stable, and it was not easy to get motion sickness." At that time, even when talking about cars with Aunt Li Nong, they could find advantages for Santana from a tricky point of view, and "Sangche", a simple name, told the love between domestic Santana and the city.
How Volkswagen Santana was introduced to the Chinese market from Shanghai is well documented in the United Times, sponsored by the Shanghai CppcC.
In 1978, China decided to introduce a sedan assembly line. With the support of the State Council, Shanghai has won this opportunity to develop an advanced automobile industry and build a modern car manufacturing enterprise.
At the end of September of the same year, the First Machine Department of the State Council successively sent invitations to automobile companies such as General Motors of the United States, Ford, Toyota of Japan, Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen of Germany, Renault of France, Citroen of France, and soon delegations of these overseas automobile companies came to China to discuss cooperation.
In October 1978, a delegation from China Machinery visited Europe and began negotiations with Schmidt, then chairman of the Volkswagen Group, about the joint venture to build a car company.
Since then, a six-year-long negotiation has begun in a small Western-style building at 390 Wukang Road in Shanghai.
According to Jiang Tao, former director of the Shanghai Municipal First Bureau of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering who was responsible for negotiating the project, the Chinese side set up three principles in the selection of cooperation partners at that time.
First of all, the cooperation object needs to provide advanced models suitable for the needs of China's market; second, it is necessary to provide advanced production technology and scientific management mode to jointly build a complete modern car industry; third, the cooperation object needs to agree to provide technical assistance to horizontal parts and components enterprises to accelerate the localization of parts and components.
Among the many overseas car manufacturers, only Volkswagen AG of Germany accepts these three principles in its entirety and is willing to invest cash in the construction of assembly lines.
At that time, the agreement between China and Germany followed the rules of overseas car production, with 150,000 vehicles as the starting point for annual production. However, on the eve of the start of the new car production in 1980, Volkswagen of Germany wanted to withdraw the project on the grounds of the sluggish automobile market and suspended negotiations. Since then, the Chinese negotiating team has suggested that the German side reduce the project scale from an annual output of 150,000 vehicles to 20,000 vehicles, and the scale of investment has shrunk accordingly, which has finally been adopted by the German side.
On April 11, 1983, the first Shanghai Santana sedan was successfully trial-produced, thus starting the market journey that lasted for 38 years.
"With Santana, I'm not afraid to go all over the world." Along with this well-known advertising slogan, Santana, along with Citroën Fukang (CX) and FAW-Volkswagen Jetta, constituted the most popular "old three" in the automotive industry at that time. By the end of the 1990s, Santana had surpassed Beverly Wilshire to top the sales charts of China's automotive industry.
In the era when SUVs had not yet appeared in the Chinese market, from taxis to private cars, to official cars, and even driving school cars, Shanghai Volkswagen Santana, as a medium-sized car, appeared in almost every travel scene, truly playing the role of "multi-purpose car".
Over the next 30 years, Santana models have undergone many iterations in China.
Shanghai Volkswagen began to develop a new generation of Santana sedans in October 1991, and officially introduced this product to the market under the name of "Santana 2000" in 1995. In the following 8 years, Shanghai Volkswagen has successively launched "Times Superman", "Freedom Boiling Point", "Junjie", "Times Proud Son", "Times Sunshine" and other modified models. As of January 31, 2004, production stopped, and the cumulative sales of santana 2000 models reached 777211 units.
The Santana 3000 model has been batoned since February 2004. The advent of the Santana 3000, the first model developed locally by Shanghai Volkswagen, also marks the joint venture automaker's official entry into its own development phase. Discontinued in 2007, the Santana 3000 has accumulated sales of 328155 units in the Chinese market.
In 2008, Shanghai Volkswagen launched a fourth-generation improved model, the Santana 3000, the Vista. During this upgrade, Santana made many adjustments in terms of appearance and body size, which were more in line with the aesthetic preferences of car consumption at that time. As a result, sales were discontinued in 2013, and Santana's sales exceeded that of its predecessors, reaching 498433 units.
2012 was a pivotal year for Santana.
Because in that year, this model, which was born from the second generation of passats, officially ended its historical mission in its hometown in Germany, but it ushered in a new form in China, which is located in the easternmost part of Eurasia.
However, in the process of "returning to the market", Santana has also changed from a medium-sized family car that takes the high-end route to a compact car that focuses on the economic market while optimizing the styling design and power configuration.
The shift in market positioning has brought both benefits and concerns to Santana.
On the one hand, the lower price and market positioning have fully prepared for the sinking of Santana models to the bottom line city and large base passenger groups; on the other hand, more fierce competition in the compact market segment will also make this car face many tough opponents, including even SAIC Volkswagen's Langyi model.
"It's hard to say that what the Santana model went through in 2012 was not a one-time conspiracy between Volkswagen and its Chinese partners." Liu Rui, an independent automotive analyst at the University of Engineering and Technology (UTT) in France, said.
Since its birth in 1981, this model, which has lasted for 31 years, has an ordinary place in Volkswagen's product spectrum in Germany. In the Volkswagen Museum in Wolfsburg, Germany, people walk through hundreds of exhibition cars, but santana is hard to find.
In fact, since the first Santana was born at the Emden plant in Germany, only 130,000 prototypes of the model, the Passat B2, have been produced in Total. In addition, Volkswagen canceled the model name "Santana" on the European market in 1985, which has been sold as a Passat ever since.
For the Volkswagen brand, Santana's viability in other overseas markets is also rather limited. In the United States, Santana stopped selling in 1988; in Japan, Santana only lasted until 1990. In markets such as Mexico, Argentina and Brazil, the model was discontinued in 1988, 1991 and 2006.
"The Santana we are talking about today is no longer a car from before 2012, its manufacturing base has shifted from the Passat B2 to the PQ25 platform, and the key elements of body size and design vocabulary have also changed." Liu Rui analyzed, "In the Chinese market, perhaps only because Santana has a status close to the 'national car', its model name has been retained in another car." ”
He said that in the future, in the process of fully electrification, whether the Volkswagen brand will repeat the same trick because of the popularity accumulated by "Santana" in the Chinese market for many years, it is also unknown.
At present, SAIC Volkswagen has launched a number of pure electric vehicle models such as ID.4 X, ID.6 X and ID.3 based on the MEB platform, and the names of these models adopt the inherent naming method of the VW brand ID. family, but in the Chinese part, the room for free play is relatively large. For example, the ID.6 X has a '1st Edition ID.Hatsumi' model. Liu Rui laughed, "Then will there be 'ID.3 Santana' in the future?" Who knows? ”
From this perspective, Santana's departure is full of inevitability, and the future is full of infinite possibilities, without sighing.