"Middle Eastern tycoons" increase their positions! Foreign capital is optimistic! These targets are considered to have significant upside!

Securities Market Weekly Market Number

2024-05-26 17:40Published on the official account of Beijing Hongkan Finance

Text丨Liu Zenglu

This week's A-share market, the trend is quite chilling, Thursday and Friday continued to retreat, big V, small scattered people have been angry.

There may be two main reasons for the analysis, one is that as the leader of this round of China's asset rebound, Hong Kong stocks continue to adjust the trend; Second, photovoltaic failed to effectively undertake the funds of these high-level varieties of real estate, and lacked a rotating relay disk. But at best, if you can't get out of such a sharp fall, there is a high probability that you will have to pull it back.

"Middle Eastern tycoons" increase their positions! Foreign capital is optimistic! These targets are considered to have significant upside!

At the same time, a number of international investment banks have recently expressed positive views on the A-share market.

On May 20, Goldman Sachs Research said in its latest equity strategy report that it raised the 12-month target of the MSCI China Index from 60 to 70; The 12-month target for the CSI 300 Index was raised to 4,100 from 3,900 points, and it maintained an "overweight" rating on TMT sectors such as technology, media, and communications. Goldman Sachs believes that the economy is resilient, valuations remain low, and macro, housing and capital market policy support will make China's stock market strong.

J.P. Morgan Chief Asia and China Equity Strategist Liu Mingdi also said at the 2024 Global China Summit just held that the basic scenario expectation for the target point of the MSCI China Index is 66 points, and the basic scenario expectation for the CSI 300 Index is 3900 points.

Also optimistic about the A-share market is UBS Securities China equity strategy analyst Meng Lei, he believes that the current A-share market has a higher strategic importance to economic development, new quality productivity and independent and controllable all-round development is inseparable from the stock market stronger financing support, driven by the global net inflow of funds, China's stock market has ushered in a rebound, is expected to be a share relative to other emerging markets valuation discount will narrow.

According to Wind statistics, since the beginning of this year, northbound funds have flowed into A-shares of 92.723 billion yuan, far exceeding the net inflow in 2023.

During the year, A-shares bottomed out twice, and since February 6, they have successfully walked out of a good rebound market, and with this round of market, the stock prices of 65 companies in the A market have doubled, 519 companies have risen by more than 50%, and there are as many as 1,599 stocks with an increase of more than 30%. Many foreign investors have also made a lot of floating profits by taking advantage of this.

For example, the photoresist concept stock Polydi, the stock price has risen by more than 200% since the rebound, and the observation shows that the foreign QFII Barclays Bank Co., Ltd. and Goldman Sachs Group have appeared in the top ten circulating shareholders of the company at the end of the first quarter with a new attitude (see Figure 1), and since the second quarter, the company's stock price has also doubled.

Shennan Circuit, which is also known as the "rich man in the Middle East" in the first quarter, has risen by more than 80% since its rebound on February 6 (see Figure 2).

Although the holdings of QFIIs in the second quarter will not be clear until the release of the interim reports of listed companies, the latest investment preferences of foreign investors have been reflected in the trend of northbound funds.

According to the latest shareholding statistics, compared with the end of the first quarter, northbound funds increased their holdings in nearly 1,500 companies, of which 149 companies' holdings in the proportion of outstanding A shares increased by more than 1 percentage point compared with the end of the first quarter.

Among them, Huaming equipment was the most obvious, on May 23, northbound funds held 136 million shares of the company, an increase of 43,503,300 shares from the end of the first quarter, and the proportion of the latest holdings in the circulating share capital increased by 5.73 percentage points compared with the end of the first quarter. Looking at the company's stock price performance, it also rose all the way, and refreshed its all-time high on May 13 (see Figure 3).

And not only northbound funds are actively increasing their positions, but since May, many companies have been unanimously optimistic about brokerages and have given target prices with high upside. Statistics show that among the companies whose latest holdings of northbound funds have increased by more than 1 percentage point from the end of the first quarter, a total of 22 brokerages have 30% upside from the current target.

Such as Bethel, the latest northbound capital holds 48,645,100 shares, the latest shareholding in the proportion of circulating share capital increased by 1.15% compared with the end of the first quarter, on May 2, Huatai Securities analyst Song Tingting said in the research report that the company's revenue in the first quarter, net profit attributable to the parent company grew steadily, joint ventures, overseas car companies have made important breakthroughs, optimistic that the company will maintain excellent order development capabilities, and the release of orders in hand will promote revenue growth. The target price of 82.05 yuan is given to the company, which has room to double the current upside.

On May 9, Guolian Securities also released a research report on Bethel, saying that the company's wire-controlled chassis upgrade is clear, the production capacity release rhythm is clear, and the company is given 30 times PE in 2024 with a target price of 82.03 yuan with reference to the valuation of comparable companies. There is also room to double the current share price.

Tianfeng Securities gave a target price of 63 yuan to Lixun Precision, which is close to doubling the current stock price. Combined with the northbound capital trend, the latest holdings of the company's shares are 464,695,800 shares, an increase of 96,992,000 shares from the end of the first quarter, and the proportion of shares held in the outstanding share capital has increased by 1.35%.

(The individual stocks mentioned in the article are for example analysis only, and do not make trading recommendations.) ）

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