The weather is winter, and the property market is frequently blowing winds. Some people began to call for bottoming out, and some people said that the house prices that had just fallen would turn around. These views are based on recent voices from some of the biggest sectors about real estate. Today, we will list a few contents that everyone is more concerned about, and then discuss in depth how to view the current property market.
1. The official media has developed the news that Goldman Sachs has bottomed out the bonds of real estate enterprises, which is a signal worthy of attention.
2. The central mother announced that the mortgage loan in October increased by more than 101.3 billion yuan month-on-month, which is the first time this year that the mortgage has been taken out separately. This intention is obvious, mainly to transmit positive signals, use data to interpret positively, stabilize the willingness of home buyers, eliminate negative effects, and boost market confidence.
3. The issuance of interbank housing-related bonds has started, and the financing of housing enterprises has begun to loosen recently, and many housing enterprises have obtained loans or are finalizing related financing matters.
Poly Development announced that it will issue $2 billion of medium-term notes in the interbank market.
Shimao Group received a HK$1.5 billion loan each from China Merchants Bank and DBS Bank.
China Merchants Shekou announced the first medium-term note issuance plan for 2021, and intends to register and issue 3 billion yuan of medium-term notes in the interbank market.
China Resources Land received a HK$1.5 billion five-year loan.
Gemdale Group completed the issuance of 1.5 billion medium-term notes.
Guangzhou City Investment and Pearl River Industrial will provide 3 billion yuan of support for Aoyuan.
Vanke Chongqing raised RMB5.8 billion from Ping An Asset Management.
The Sunshine City Changsha project received a loan of 1.61 billion yuan from Minmetals Trust.
The launch of a series of financing activities not only supplements the liquidity of some housing enterprises, avoids the risk of default, but also injects confidence into the real estate industry.
4. Wuhan City, Shenyang, Harbin, Changchun, Huizhou, Kunming and other cities began to make small adjustments to the original regulation and control policies to alleviate cold market transactions.
5. The central bank meeting stressed that it is better to support the recovery of consumer investment, curb excessive price increases, and promote high-quality economic and social development. Maintain the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. This statement of the central mother obviously gave the property market a "reassuring pill".
Based on the above five facts, many people began to speculate that the property market returned to relaxation, relaxed the purchase limit, relaxed the price limit, and liberalized the operating loan. This is clearly not understood.
Please note that the CBIRC stressed at the meeting that it is necessary to curb the bubble tendency of real estate financialization, improve the long-term mechanism of real estate regulation and control, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate industry.
Therefore, the original filing price, guidance price and current house price are the core policies for stabilizing the property market. These will continue in the short term. Some cities will give developers a moderate relaxation of constraints based on the thinking of one city, one policy (such as letting go of some financing), get on the bus for just needed customers, and increase liquidity to the real estate market, but not speculating in housing is a basic national policy and will not change.
All of the above are the normal performance of the current property market. As a public, it is recommended that you take the focus on the property market from the house price a little bit, we go deep into the specific housing needs, land and population. After all, house prices are only appearances, and population and land are fundamental.
39.9 yuan can't buy anything,
But you can avoid regretting spending 3 million to buy a house,
Others are decent, and you don't have to step on the pits that buy a house. Click on the image below to view it.
The central bank released the "2019 Survey of Household Assets and Liabilities of Urban Residents in China", pointing out that the household housing ownership rate of urban residents reached 96% in 2019, and 41.5% of households owned 2 or more houses. In terms of the value of household assets, the average household is 3.179 million yuan, of which more than 8 million yuan in Shanghai and more than 5 million yuan in Jiangsu.
This shows that there is no shortage of housing in our total housing, and only if there is a possible regional imbalance. This also shows that house prices will no longer have the opportunity to rise and fall as in the past. In other words, buying a house must also be considered by one city and one policy.
Presumably, everyone has a new understanding of the situation of population births from the release of the three children, but the changes in the specific number of births may still not be deeply felt. Here, we use the birth data chart of the past five years to represent it, so that everyone can understand it at a glance.
A look at the map, you will find that the birth population fell too fiercely, therefore, since the release of the results of the seventh census this year, a variety of supporting measures to promote the birth of three children have begun to be introduced, some extend maternity leave, there are direct cash subsidies (such as Panzhihua in Sichuan), we are now beginning to pay attention to the birth rate.
Just remember that population is the basis for the value of a house.
Many people believe that our economy will have a high probability of de-real estate based on the strict regulation of the property market. This may also be a one-sided understanding, not to mention the proportion of GDP generated by the real estate industry and the related employment in the real estate industry. Let's just talk about the importance of land in local income now.
Take a look at this picture!
There are many places where salaries, pensions, and related benefits require this land transfer. Once the income from land transfer is greatly reduced, in the short term, wages and pensions may encounter problems. Therefore, some places have issued restriction orders to stabilize housing prices and thus stabilize land prices.
For real estate, it should be wide and wide, but it will not engage in flood irrigation; it should be strict and strict, and the rectification norms are for the stable and healthy development of the market. The combination of leniency and severity is a consistent practice of real estate regulation and control, with a broad bottom line and strict control of chaos.
We want real estate to be good, but we are worried that it is too floaty. Leniency and severity are the norm.