央行重磅資料出爐，資訊量很大！

2月9日，農曆除夕當日，中國人民銀行公布了2024年1月金融統計資料。資料顯示，1月社會融資規模增加6.5萬億元，1月份人民币貸款增加4.92萬億元。

對此，市場專家普遍表示，人民銀行通過加大跨周期和逆周期調節，1月社會融資規模和信貸資料保持平穩，好于市場預期，有效滿足市場主體合理融資需求，實作經濟良好開局。目前通過盤活存量貸款、做好“五篇大文章”，有助于提升資金使用效能，宏觀政策效果将持續顯現，預計全年信貸投放更趨均衡。

信貸保持合理增長 投放節奏更加平穩

近期，人民銀行強調在保持信貸适度增長的基礎上，要把握好信貸節奏，為經濟回升向好提供穩定、持續的信貸支援。1月，主要金融資料增速與上年基本相當，充分展現了開年以來信貸保持均衡投放。

2024年“均衡投放”将成為關鍵詞。市場人士普遍認為，信貸投放關鍵是把握好度，既要尊重經濟金融的客觀規律，也要避免出現明顯偏離曆史水準的異常信貸行為，需要更關注信貸增長的均衡性。

上海金融與發展實驗室主任曾剛表示，“過度追求規模擴張并不能給銀行帶來效益，相反會壓低利率水準，還可能形成潛在風險。”天風證券首席分析師孫彬彬表示，“政策層面要求信貸投放均衡，目的在于避免信貸沖量降低資金使用效率，降低資金空轉套利風險。”

資金使用效率穩步提升。在政策引導下，銀行業金融機構以往的“開門紅”現象出現好轉，更加專注滿足企業實際有效融資需求。光大證券首席宏觀經濟學家高瑞東表示，“近期人民銀行關于平滑信貸投放的指引推動了銀行機構調整自身信貸投放節奏，避免大幅波動引發市場預期反複，穩定市場信心的同時提高了政策傳導效率。”

中國民生銀行首席經濟學家溫彬表示，“2024年，新增信貸将合理增長、節奏均衡，着力平滑月度、季度間信貸波動，增強信貸總量增長的穩定性和可持續性。”長沙凱瑞重工機械有限公司總經理蔔紅華表示，“央行一系列政策顯著提升了我公司的融資便利性和經濟性，為研發新産品和開拓全球市場注入強心劑，公司持續經營更有底氣了。”

部分存量信貸資源盤活 資金使用效率改善

中央金融工作會議提出了“盤活被低效占用的金融資源，提高資金使用效率”的明确要求，釋放出“重視效能”的信号。從2023年四季度以來的金融資料看，信貸結構持續優化，在保持信貸基本盤穩定的同時，重點領域、薄弱環節信貸投放繼續保持較高增速。

盤活存量、提升效能，是今年貨币政策的重要發力方向。南開大學金融發展研究院院長田利輝表示，“這展現了大陸更加注重貨币政策的靈活性和有效性，發揮好貨币政策工具總量和結構雙重功能，對金融資源配置進行調整和優化，引導新舊動能轉換以實作經濟高品質發展。”

國信證券經濟研究所王劍分析，“盤活存量會帶來貸款結構的變化，金融資源将更多流向科技創新、先進制造、綠色發展、普惠小微等重點領域。”中信證券FICC研究團隊認為，央行将更加注重結構優化與存量盤活，切實展現有增有減，增的方面，緊扣重大戰略、重點領域和薄弱環節，提供更加适配、更可持續的産品和服務；減的方面，堅持市場化法治化原則，通過債務重組、市場出清等方式，盤活被低效占用的金融資源。

優化金融資源配置 做好“五篇大文章”

中央金融工作會議首次提出要做好科技金融、綠色金融、普惠金融、養老金融、數字金融“五篇大文章”。人民銀行更好發揮貨币信貸政策效能，進一步運用好再貸款工具，發揮好激勵作用，引導金融機構服務好“五篇大文章”。2023年末，全國科技型中小企業本外币貸款餘額同比增長21.9%，高新技術企業本外币貸款餘額同比增長15.3%，本外币綠色貸款餘額同比增長36.5%，普惠小微貸款餘額同比增長23.5%，均明顯快于全部貸款增速。

大陸再貸款工具已基本覆寫“五篇大文章”。人民銀行2023年四季度貨政報告專欄提到，目前大陸各項再貸款工具已實作對“五篇大文章”領域的基本覆寫。未來貨币政策在這方面的支援力度還會繼續加大，人民銀行行長潘功勝表示，将“延續實施普惠小微貸款支援工具、普惠養老專項再貸款，适度增加支農支小再貸款、再貼現額度，擴大碳減排支援工具支援對象、拓展支援範圍和增加工具規模，研究制定整合支援科技創新和數字金融領域的工具方案”。

“五篇大文章”指出了未來金融資源傾斜的重點。人民銀行在國新辦記者招待會上提出要更加注重處理好總量與結構、存量與增量的關系，着力做好金融“五篇大文章”，将通過信貸政策引導信貸資源更多地投向五個重點領域，為後續優化信貸結構創造更好條件。

上海新金融研究院副院長劉曉春表示，“這‘五篇大文章’所代表的關鍵詞，實際上是大陸經濟高品質發展的方向和經濟增長方式轉變的方向。做好‘五篇大文章’，意味着對金融的要求變得更高，不再隻是以前簡簡單單的融資，而是應該為經濟社會發展提供高品質服務。”

金融機構紛紛表示将以優質金融服務做好“五篇大文章”。光大銀行金融市場部宏觀研究員周茂華表示，“中央經濟工作會議及中央金融工作會議提出的要求，有助于推動商業銀行在服務科技創新、綠色轉型、普惠小微等過程中培育差異化市場競争優勢。”長沙銀行副行長吳四龍預計，按照新的普惠小微貸款認定标準，該行普惠小微貸款餘額增加45億元左右，客戶數增加超過350戶，享受人民銀行普惠小微貸款支援工具紅利的客群範圍進一步擴大。

銀行向實體讓利 融資成本将保持穩中有降

近年來，人民銀行通過降低公開市場逆回購和中期借貸便利中标利率、調整優化住房信貸政策、推動存款利率市場化等系列措施，對市場釋放了積極的價格信号，引導企業融資和居民消費信貸成本明顯下行。2022年和2023年，貸款權重平均利率分别同比下降0.62個和0.31個百分點，市場利率下行的效果持續顯現，在促消費、穩投資、擴内需等方面發揮了積極作用。市場預計今年利率水準還将穩中有降。

對于社會綜合融資成本，多位專家表示，下行仍有空間。中金公司首席經濟學家彭文生認為，今年以來，貨币政策加大逆周期和跨周期調節力度，疊加前期銀行存款降息，為下一步LPR下行鋪路，向實體經濟讓利的空間擴大，有助于穩增長、穩預期、穩市場。曾剛表示，人民銀行近期通過降準釋放中長期流動性，下調支農支小再貸款、再貼現利率，将進一步強化對“三農”和小微領域的支援力度，推動社會綜合融資成本穩中有降。周茂華分析稱，預計後續央行仍将挖掘利率市場化改革紅利，推動實體經濟融資成本穩步下行，2024年LPR利率下調也還有空間。湖南銀行副行長殷六榮表示，此次人民銀行下調再貸款、再貼現利率後，該行已将政策紅利直接展現在内部資金轉移定價中，從源頭上讓利小微企業客戶，預計惠及小微企業超過3000戶，降低成本2500萬餘元。

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#191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root,body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body{--appmsgExtra-BG: #F7F7F7}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc)body:not(.pages_skin_pc){background:var(--weui-BG-2)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]).my_comment_empty_data{background-color:#111}}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-6: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}body,.wx-root{--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #ededed;--weui-BG-1: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-2: #fff;--weui-BG-3: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-4: #4c4c4c;--weui-BG-5: #fff;--weui-FG-0: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-1: rgba(0, 0, 0, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(0, 0, 0, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(0, 0, 0, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-YELLOW: #ffc300;--weui-GREEN: #91d300;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #95ec69;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1485ee;--weui-PURPLE: #6467f0;--weui-WHITE: #fff;--weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: 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#10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1485ee;--weui-PURPLE: #6467f0;--weui-WHITE: #fff;--weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06ae56;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-BG: #fff;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: #e6e6e6}.wx-root,body{--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: #ececec}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, 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59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--discussInput-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .03)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--nickName-FG: #959595}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 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div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}