The central bank's blockbuster data is out, and there is a lot of information!

On February 9, the Chinese New Year's Eve, the People's Bank of China released financial statistics for January 2024. According to the data, the scale of social financing increased by 6.5 trillion yuan in January, and RMB loans increased by 4.92 trillion yuan in January.

In this regard, market experts generally said that the People's Bank of China (PBoC) has increased cross-cyclical and counter-cyclical adjustments, and the scale of social financing and credit data in January remained stable, better than market expectations, effectively meeting the reasonable financing needs of market players and achieving a good start for the economy. At present, by revitalizing the stock of loans and doing a good job in the "five major articles", it will help to improve the efficiency of capital use, and the effect of macro policies will continue to appear, and it is expected that credit allocation will be more balanced throughout the year.

Credit maintained a reasonable growth and the pace of disbursement became more stable

Recently, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) has stressed the need to grasp the rhythm of credit on the basis of maintaining moderate credit growth and provide stable and sustained credit support for the economic recovery. In January, the growth rate of major financial data was basically the same as that of the previous year, fully reflecting the balanced credit supply since the beginning of the year.

In 2024, "balanced placement" will become the keyword. Market participants generally believe that the key to credit delivery is to grasp the degree of goodness, not only to respect the objective laws of economy and finance, but also to avoid abnormal credit behaviors that obviously deviate from the historical level, and to pay more attention to the balance of credit growth.

Zeng Gang, director of the Shanghai Finance and Development Laboratory, said, "Excessive pursuit of scale expansion will not bring benefits to banks, but will instead drive down interest rates and may also create potential risks." Sun Binbin, chief analyst of Tianfeng Securities, said, "The policy level requires balanced credit delivery, the purpose is to avoid credit impulse to reduce the efficiency of capital use and reduce the risk of capital idling arbitrage." ”

The efficiency of the use of funds has been steadily improved. Under the guidance of policies, the "good start" phenomenon of banking financial institutions in the past has improved, and they are more focused on meeting the actual and effective financing needs of enterprises. Gao Ruidong, Chief Macroeconomist of Everbright Securities, said, "The recent guidance of the People's Bank of China on smoothing credit delivery has prompted banking institutions to adjust the pace of their own credit delivery, avoid sharp fluctuations and trigger repeated market expectations, stabilize market confidence and improve the efficiency of policy transmission. ”

Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, said, "In 2024, new credit will grow reasonably and at a balanced pace, focus on smoothing monthly and inter-quarterly credit fluctuations, and enhance the stability and sustainability of total credit growth." Bu Honghua, general manager of Changsha Kairui Heavy Industry Machinery Co., Ltd., said, "A series of policies of the central bank have significantly improved the convenience and economy of our company's financing, injected a boost into the research and development of new products and the development of the global market, and the company has more confidence in sustainable operation." ”

Some of the existing credit resources have been revitalized, and the efficiency of the use of funds has improved

The Central Financial Work Conference put forward a clear requirement of "revitalizing the financial resources occupied by inefficiency and improving the efficiency of capital use", releasing a signal of "attaching importance to efficiency". Judging from the financial data since the fourth quarter of 2023, the credit structure has continued to be optimized, and while maintaining the stability of credit fundamentals, credit allocation in key areas and weak links has continued to maintain a high growth rate.

Revitalizing the stock and improving efficiency is an important direction of monetary policy this year. Tian Lihui, dean of the Institute of Financial Development of Nankai University, said, "This reflects that the mainland pays more attention to the flexibility and effectiveness of monetary policy, gives full play to the dual functions of monetary policy tools, adjusts and optimizes the allocation of financial resources, and guides the transformation of old and new drivers to achieve high-quality economic development." ”

Wang Jian of Guosen Securities Economic Research Institute analyzed, "Revitalizing the stock will bring about changes in the loan structure, and financial resources will flow more to key areas such as scientific and technological innovation, advanced manufacturing, green development, and inclusive small and micro enterprises." The FICC research team of CITIC Securities believes that the central bank will pay more attention to structural optimization and stock revitalization, effectively reflect the increase and decrease, increase and increase, closely follow the major strategies, key areas and weak links, and provide more suitable and sustainable products and services;

Optimize the allocation of financial resources and do a good job in the "five major articles"

For the first time, the Central Financial Work Conference proposed to do a good job in science and technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance. The People's Bank of China should give better play to the effectiveness of monetary and credit policies, further make good use of relending tools, give full play to the role of incentives, and guide financial institutions to serve the "five major articles" well. At the end of 2023, the balance of domestic and foreign currency loans to small and medium-sized science and technology enterprises increased by 21.9% year-on-year, the balance of domestic and foreign currency loans to high-tech enterprises increased by 15.3% year-on-year, the balance of green loans in local and foreign currencies increased by 36.5% year-on-year, and the balance of inclusive small and micro loans increased by 23.5% year-on-year, all of which were significantly faster than the growth rate of all loans.

The mainland's refinancing tool has basically covered the "five major articles". The People's Bank of China's fourth quarter 2023 cargo policy report column mentioned that at present, various relending tools in the mainland have achieved basic coverage of the "five major articles". Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People's Bank of China, said that he will "continue to implement inclusive small and micro loan support tools and inclusive pension special reloans, moderately increase the amount of re-lending and re-discounting to support agriculture and small enterprises, expand the support objects of carbon emission reduction support tools, expand the scope of support and increase the scale of tools, and study and formulate a plan to integrate and support scientific and technological innovation and digital finance."

The "five major articles" point out the key points of the future tilt of financial resources. At the press conference of the State Council Information Office, the People's Bank of China proposed that it should pay more attention to the relationship between aggregate and structure, stock and increment, and strive to do a good job in the "five major articles" of finance, and guide credit resources to be invested more in five key areas through credit policies, so as to create better conditions for the subsequent optimization of the credit structure.

Liu Xiaochun, vice president of the Shanghai Institute of New Finance, said, "The key words represented by these 'five major articles' are actually the direction of high-quality economic development of the mainland and the direction of the transformation of economic growth mode. Doing a good job in the 'five major articles' means that the requirements for finance have become higher, and it is no longer just a simple financing in the past, but should provide high-quality services for economic and social development. ”

Financial institutions have said that they will do a good job in "five big articles" with high-quality financial services. Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department of Everbright Bank, said, "The requirements put forward by the Central Economic Work Conference and the Central Financial Work Conference will help promote commercial banks to cultivate differentiated market competitive advantages in the process of serving technological innovation, green transformation, and inclusive small and micro enterprises. Wu Silong, vice president of Changsha Bank, expects that according to the new inclusive small and micro loan recognition standards, the bank's inclusive small and micro loan balance will increase by about 4.5 billion yuan, the number of customers will increase by more than 350, and the scope of customers enjoying the dividends of the People's Bank of China's inclusive small and micro loan support tools will be further expanded.

Banks will give profits to entities and the cost of financing will remain stable and fall

In recent years, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) has released positive price signals to the market through a series of measures, such as lowering the open market reverse repo and medium-term lending facility winning interest rates, adjusting and optimizing housing credit policies, and promoting the marketization of deposit interest rates, guiding the financing costs of enterprises and consumer credit to decline significantly. In 2022 and 2023, the weighted average interest rate of loans will decrease by 0.62 and 0.31 percentage points year-on-year, respectively, and the effect of the downward trend of market interest rates will continue to appear, playing a positive role in promoting consumption, stabilizing investment, and expanding domestic demand. The market expects interest rates to stabilize and fall this year.

As for the comprehensive financing cost of society, many experts said that there is still room for downward movement. Peng Wensheng, chief economist of CICC, believes that since the beginning of this year, the monetary policy has increased counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, superimposed on the interest rate cut of bank deposits in the early stage, paving the way for the next step of LPR downward movement, and expanding the space for concessions to the real economy, which will help stabilize growth, stabilize expectations and stabilize the market. Zeng Gang said that the People's Bank of China has recently released medium and long-term liquidity through RRR cuts, and lowered the re-lending and rediscount rates for rural and small businesses, which will further strengthen the support for the "three rural" and small and micro sectors, and promote the steady decline in comprehensive social financing costs. Zhou Maohua analyzed that it is expected that the central bank will still tap the dividends of interest rate market-oriented reform to promote the steady decline of financing costs in the real economy, and there is still room for LPR interest rates to be lowered in 2024. Yin Liurong, vice president of Hunan Bank, said that after the People's Bank of China lowered the relending and rediscount rates, the bank has directly reflected the policy dividend in the internal fund transfer pricing, benefiting small and micro enterprise customers from the source, which is expected to benefit more than 3,000 small and micro enterprises and reduce costs by more than 25 million yuan.

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and (prefers-color-scheme: dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]),,body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .. 15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;-- weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);-weui-tag-background-red: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, ..) 1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .. 1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .) 6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){-appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]).my_comment_empty_data{background-color:#111}}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-6: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}body,.., wx-root{--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #ededed;--weui-BG-1: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-2: #fff;--weui-BG-3: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-4: #4c4c4c;--weui-BG-5: #fff;--weui-FG-0: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(0, 0, 0, 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#fff;--weui-BG-3: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-4: #4c4c4c;--weui-BG-5: #fff;--weui-FG-0: rgba(0, 0, 0, .. 9);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-1: rgba(0, 0, 0, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(0, 0, 0, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(0, 0, 0, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-YELLOW: #ffc300;--weui-GREEN: #91d300;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #95ec69;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1485ee;--weui-PURPLE: #6467f0;--weui-WHITE: #fff;;--weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06ae56;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-BG: #fff;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .. 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255, 255, .07)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: #373737}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-6: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6); --weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .) 6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme: dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--discussInput-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .03)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--nickName-FG: 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