In the past few days, the "German Bundesrat passed the "2030 Ban on Fuel Vehicles on the Road" resolution" that has been brushed up in the circle of friends has an amazing number of views. However, this is only a proposal from the German Senate, and the German Ministry of Transport has made it clear that it does not support it. In other words, it is only the proposal of a few politicians, and it has not received support and recognition from the industry.
In fact, developed countries and regions such as Europe, the United States and Japan do not abandon the meaning of fuel vehicles, and are currently "walking on two legs", on the one hand, digging deep into the potential of traditional cars, on the other hand, developing new energy vehicles. As the saying goes, it's called "eating from the bowl and looking at the pot." This pragmatic approach is well worth learning.
Performance emissions are fine
Can "walk on two legs"
At first glance at the news of "Germany banning fuel vehicles on the road in 2030", electric vehicle practitioners are inevitably shocked. Many people believe that China's engine technology has a gap of decades compared with developed countries, and the increasing number of fuel vehicles is one of the main culprits that lead to smog. Therefore, the development of electric vehicles can not only achieve overtaking in curves, but also can see the blue sky and white clouds. And this is precisely the development trend of the international and domestic engine industry, and the lack of understanding of the actual situation leads to wrong judgment.
In fact, the internationally recognized development focus is still on the traditional power vehicle, one is because the traditional power vehicle still has the potential to tap; the second is that the theory and practice do not support the "energy exhaustion theory", the amount of energy found in the past decade has far exceeded the amount of energy used; the third is that after the emissions reach Euro VI, the exhaust gases emitted by the car are cleaner than the air, but there is no oxygen in it.
Some Japanese media have contemptuously said that China's own brands have not been able to produce engines so far, so some media believe that the development of electric vehicles can overtake in curves, but the actual situation is not the case. On the occasion of the 11th "China Core • Top Ten Engines" selection, we interviewed several experts on related issues.
Yao Chunde, professor and doctoral supervisor of the State Key Laboratory of Combustion of Internal Combustion Engine of Tianjin University, an expert of the "China Core Ten Best Engines" review team, said: "Participating in the review of the 11th Top Ten Engines in China, my feeling is that the gap between domestic and foreign engines is narrowing, and it is narrowing to the point where it is difficult to distinguish. I am optimistic about the changes in the environment after the implementation of Euro VI. ”
Internal Combustion Engine Combustion, Tianjin University
Professor of state key laboratory, doctoral supervisor Yao Chunde
Similarly, Wei Anli, deputy secretary-general of the China Internal Combustion Engine Industry Association, believes that in terms of performance and emissions, there is little difference between domestic engines and multinational companies, and the gap between the two lies in the consistency of products. He said: "Because the suppliers of independent brands are inferior to the joint ventures, can the emissions remain the same after the domestic engine has run for hundreds of thousands of kilometers?" This is a question mark. ”
China Internal Combustion Engine Industry Association
Deputy Secretary-General Wei Anli
It is also understood that there is no international discussion on the Euro VII standard, and the equipment for monitoring the Euro VII standard has not been born. In other words, we will soon reach the level of developed countries such as Europe and the United States in terms of emissions. And we are demanding an average fuel consumption of 5 litres by 2020, which is already more difficult than meeting euro VI standards. Without hybrid technology, we may not be able to meet the fuel consumption target for 2020.
It can be seen that the domestic internal combustion engine is not much different from multinational companies in terms of technology and emissions, and China can follow the example of developed countries and adopt the strategy of "walking on two legs" between fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles.
There is no substitute for special uses
Need to "walk on two legs"
The internal combustion engine was a far-reaching achievement during the Second Industrial Revolution. Powered by the internal combustion engine, ships, cars and airplanes were successfully developed. Therefore, even if "fuel vehicles are banned from the road in 2030", then the aircraft that burn kerosene and the ships that burn heavy oil cannot be replaced. Moreover, compared with ship (cruise ship or military ship), aircraft (passenger aircraft or fighter jet) engines, the data requirements of car engines are simply pediatric.
Some people may worry that since so many places need oil, what if traditional energy sources are used up?
Yao Chunde believes that whether oil resources can be exploited is still inconclusive in the scientific community. Traditional science holds that "oil is an organic matter from ancient times, produced for geological reasons", and there is no conclusive evidence for this theory. As far as current technology is concerned, it is an objective fact that oil is becoming more and more difficult to extract. However, I am afraid that no one can say whether 30 years is a large limit, because the basis of any forecast is based on the technical level of the era in which the forecaster lives, and it is inevitable that there are limitations.
Wei Anli also agreed with Yao Chunde's point of view, saying: "There is no scientific assertion in the world that oil is non-renewable. Russian scientists say that oil is produced by earthquakes, and this theory is currently accepted by the world. In addition, the combustible ice stored on the seabed in China can be used for 1200 years. The earth is three mountains, six waters and one field, we are standing on a field to see the oil reserves, under the mountain, the seabed is not known how much oil. Therefore, there is no basis for this conclusion that energy is depleted. ”
At the same time, Wei Anli said that with the improvement of living standards, cars will change from "means of transportation" to "toys". The current intelligent car can not meet people's pursuit of driving pleasure, therefore, electric vehicles, traditional power vehicles must be parallel development, and it is a long-term parallel.
Wei Anli said that in 2030, 2/3 of the vehicles still rely on engines. Based on the current sales of 200 million engines per year, at least 100 million fuel vehicles, construction machinery, ships and aircraft will be in normal use worldwide.
Therefore, from the demand level, new energy vehicles need to "walk on two legs" with traditional internal combustion engines.
Diversification of new energy vehicles
The trend is "walking on two legs"
If "gasoline vehicles are banned from the road in 2030", will it have to replace it with electric vehicles? At present, some problems in the electric vehicle industry have made the industry begin to re-examine the development path of new energy vehicles. In fact, we can not give up electric vehicles because of choking food, but also support and encourage plug-in hybrids and ordinary hybrids, after all, this is the internationally recognized direction to solve practical problems.
A few days ago, at the "New Fertile Soil and New Energy Automobile Industry Investment (Changshu) Summit" hosted by the China Automotive Technology and Research Center and the Changshu Municipal People's Government, Wang Binggang, head of the National New Energy Vehicle Technology Innovation Engineering Expert Group, said that new energy vehicles have not yet entered a stage of rapid development, and are still in the introduction period (cultivation period).
Wang Binggang, head of the National New Energy Vehicle Technology Innovation Engineering Expert Group
Wang Binggang pointed out that in the case of a good development momentum of pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles with higher power and longer driving range are also indispensable. He believes that the national policy support for plug-in hybrid vehicles will drive the development of ordinary hybrid technology, and hybrid is the main direction for the future development of fuel vehicle technology.
Wei Anli pointed out that the "three majors in the United States", "three in Germany" and "three in Japan" play electric vehicles while constantly reducing emissions on traditional power engines. The efforts of multinational companies over the years are still on traditional power vehicles.
Wei Anli said: "At that time, when the price of gasoline was 7 or 8 yuan per liter, the carbon dioxide emission standard was raised, and the emissions of the internal combustion engine could not be reduced, which promoted the development of hybrid vehicles. Nowadays, traditional powered cars cannot do their job to reduce fuel consumption. Because in terms of emission reduction, Europe and the United States have reached an agreement to increase the consistency of emissions in each complete cycle of automotive products, require the consistency of mileage, and in each operating condition, require both emissions and power. In the face of new requirements in the future, no hybrid will not solve the problem, therefore, hybrid will become the direction. With the subsidy for electric vehicles falling by 25% per year, the advantages of hybrids will gradually emerge. ”
Wang Binggang, Yao Chunde and Wei Anli, these internal combustion engine and new energy experts, from the technical point of view, practical use, future development and other aspects of the clarification: In the long future, China's high-performance fuel vehicles will "walk on two legs" with new energy vehicles. At the same time, it also "debunked" the "German ban on fuel vehicles on the road in 2030" from the side.
Coincidentally, the "National Electric Vehicle Development Plan of the German Federal Government" released in 2009 has identified several stages in the development of electric vehicles in Germany, namely: by 2020, there will be one million electric vehicles on German roads, and a large area of charging infrastructure will be built in important metropolitan areas; the number of electric vehicles will reach five million by 2030; and non-fossil fuel-driven urban transportation will occupy an absolute dominant position by 2050.
From this point of view, the "German fire ban incident" is purely a media misreading, and "walking on two legs" is the general trend of the future.
About the Author:
In 1979, he studied automobile repair, successively engaged in automobile repair and automobile manufacturing, and in 1993, he turned to China Business Daily, successively engaged in a number of media, participated in the establishment of automobile editions, and successively served as reporters/editors, editors-in-chief, and chief reporters. During this period, he engaged in consulting work and developed a cost-effective analysis system and a passenger car market economy index analysis system. More than half a hundred years old, resigned to start a business to join the Internet, and is currently the president of "Car Selection Network".
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