Beginning in the early morning of today (June 11), the tropical low-pressure convection in the South China Sea mentioned in yesterday's article has erupted violently and intensified. The Central Meteorological Observatory of China and the Japan Meteorological Agency upgraded it to typhoon No. 2 of the year at 2 p.m., called "Miaobai".
From the early morning to the morning of June 11, the tropical low pressure in the South China Sea was rapidly strengthening, and a core cloud was being constructed, and the central rotation intensified. From SSD
This morning, the vertical wind shear in the South China Sea temporarily weakened, and Miao Bai ushered in a development opportunity. Its clouds cover the center and roll violently like boiling water, indicating that Typhoon No. 2 has a qualified structure, abundant energy supply, strong convection development, peak strength will exceed yesterday's expectations, reaching a strong tropical storm, and the maximum wind strength may reach 10.
On the morning of June 11, the core convection of Typhoon Miaobai No. 2 developed violently. From rammb
On the afternoon of June 11, microwave scans revealed that the core of Typhoon Miaobai No. 2 was surrounded by deep convection and the structure reached the level of a tropical storm. From NRL
Typhoon Miaobai will not only develop more than expected, but also be faster than expected. It will land in Guangdong tomorrow (June 12) evening, within 36 hours of spawning. MiaoBai will also become the "first platform" of China's landing in 2017 and start the 2017 typhoon season. Most of China's initial landings appeared in June and July, and the average initial landing time was June 30; the province with the most initial landings was Guangdong, followed by Taiwan and Hainan. The time and place of Miaobai's landing are in line with the course of history, and it is a typhoon that follows the current.
Since 2000, China has landed on the first stage of the list, produced by Chinese meteorological enthusiasts
Since 2000, China has landed in the first provinces and monthly distribution, and it has been produced by Chinese meteorological enthusiasts
Typhoon Miaobai's path is also relatively stable: it will move north-westward along the northerly air flow on the west side of the subtropical high pressure. European and American values support its landing between Hong Kong and Shantou, most likely Shanwei, while the Japan Meteorological Agency values support its landing near Hong Kong.
European values, Japan Meteorological Agency values, and American values on the path of Typhoon Miaobai
The strengthening and rapid landfall of Typhoon Miaobai No. 2 in Guangdong will have three major impacts on China's weather:
1. The impact of the typhoon itself: from the afternoon of the 12th to the morning of the 13th, that is, before and after the Miaobai landing, east of Dongguan-Shenzhen-Hong Kong, all the way to the junction of Fujian and Guangdong, there will be wild storms, and foshan-Jiangmen west to Zhanjiang will be affected by the external sinking air flow and short-term high temperature and sweltering weather.
2, indirect impact: Miao Bai will combine the cold vortex to beat back the secondary high, so:
(1) The high temperature and hot weather in the Pearl River Delta, eastern Guangdong, Fujian, Taiwan and central and southern Zhejiang will end and return to the flood season;
(2) The rain in Jiangnan has just begun, and the rainfall in Hubei, Hunan and northern Jiangxi, as well as In Jiangsu, Shanghai and northern Zhejiang, has gradually decreased, entering a period of calm weather for at least one week;
Miao Bai and Cold Vortex joined hands to cut off the secondary height, causing it to retreat east and south to press the schematic diagram
3. Long-term impact:
(1) After being hit by typhoons and cold whirlpools, the vice high will be paralyzed for more than 10 days, and the rain belt will remain in Guangdong, Fujian and Taiwan for a long time, where the high temperature will end and return to the flood season. From the 13th, the flood season in Fujian and Taiwan will be a rare ferocity in recent years, and Taiwan will encounter "crazy plums", there will be continuous heavy to heavy rain, and it is necessary to prepare for flood resistance. Friends who are planning to travel to Taiwan and Fujian in the near future should consider carefully.
(2) Due to the collapse of the sub-high, the southwest monsoon feng shui vapor cannot penetrate deep into the north, so the area around the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, that is, Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu and northern Anhui, will continue to dry. However, due to the strong cold vortex force, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and northeast China will usher in more thunderstorms, and the drought will gradually ease.
Schematic diagram of precipitation in the last two weeks of the US value shows that after typhoon No. 2 made landfall, China's main rain belt returned to the Guangdong-Fujian-Taiwan line
Of course, the longer the vice-high collapses, the more severe the rebound will be. When the vice high rebounds, the Jiangnan plum rain will start, which may be two weeks later.
We will also continue to monitor Typhoon No. 2 to bring more analysis to everyone