On Thursday, the CBOT soybean futures market closed lower, with bulls closing their positions and a technical sell-off active. Soybeans closed down 21.50 cents in January at 1222.75 cents/bushel; soybean meal fell $5.00 at $335.80 a short ton in December; soybean oil fell 1.45 cents at 59.58 cents a pound in December. The USDA will release a new monthly supply and demand report on November 9, with analysts expecting on average U.S. soybean production to be 4.484 billion bushels and yields at 51.9 bushels/acre, and U.S. soybean ending stocks expected to reach 105.48 million tonnes, both higher than last month's estimates. Combined with the assessment report of the private analysis agency, the estimated value of U.S. soybean production this month is more likely to be raised. According to the weekly export sales report released by the USDA, U.S. soybean export sales increased by 1.8639 million tons in the week ended October 28, with the market forecast range of 1 million to 2.02 million tons.
On Friday, BMD crude palm oil futures jumped lower and fell deeply. As of midday, the BMD benchmark January contract was down 3.17% at RM4910/mt. Malaysian Prime Minister Lsmail Yaakob announced that in order to solve the historic labor shortage, Malaysia will allow vaccinated foreign workers to enter Malaysia to work in the cultivation industry on a case-by-case basis, although no quota has been set yet. According to foreign media reports, from January to September this year, palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia decreased by 1.29 million tons compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 8.8%. One analyst expects palm oil production this year to be the lowest in five years. Sathia varqa, co-founder of palm oil analytics, said palm oil production in Malaysia will increase by 5% to 8% in 2022 compared to 2021 and Indonesia by 3%.
On this day, the main domestic oil and fat contracts fell back, and the market transaction was more active. The main contracts of the three oil varieties all opened slightly higher and fluctuated in a narrow range. Affected by the decline in the US market, the three domestic oil varieties began to gradually weaken, and accelerated their decline after entering the daily session, creating a new low in the week. Among them, oi2201 saw 12390 yuan / ton, y2201 saw 9502 yuan / ton, p2201 saw 9340 yuan / ton. In the remaining period, the market is dominated by low fluctuations, and the position volume has been reduced to varying degrees. From the perspective of form, the current soybean oil main contract performance is the weakest, and the amount of position reduction is also the largest. As oil and fat prices rise to multi-year highs, the enthusiasm of funds to continue to do more has weakened, coupled with the recent correction in energy market prices, oil prices continue to rush higher Momentum is obviously insufficient. Operationally, it is recommended that you can continue to hold a moderate amount of oil and fat at a high level.
Today, the amount of two meal varieties fell, and the futures price hit a new low in the year. Soybean meal, rapeseed meal main contract opened near the closing price of the previous day, the market is almost a unilateral downward trend; near noon, the futures price hit a new low in the year, m2201 saw 3033 yuan / ton, rm2201 saw 2476 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, the two meal markets showed a low and narrow range, and the tail market closed at a low level. Today, the futures price of the two main contracts has fallen below the low of March 15, and the futures price is expected to fall inertia in the short term.
In the international market, the price of U.S. beans is weakening and adjusting, the recent sea freight and premium are also falling, and the cost of domestic imported soybeans is expected to continue to decline, and it is difficult to provide support for soybean meal prices at the cost end. The future market should pay attention to the Usda supply and demand report on November 9.
At present, farmers in the northeast region still have bullish expectations for forward prices, low prices are reluctant to sell, coupled with the impact of the epidemic and logistics in Heilongjiang, the arrival of factories has decreased, and quotations have continued to rise. The moisture of grain sources in the new season in North China is generally high, and farmers are reluctant to sell, and the transportation costs are high, and the market circulation of goods is further reduced. The overall purchase volume of traders is not large, mostly based on the purchase of tide grain, and the market wait-and-see mentality is strong. The arrival of deep processing enterprises is not large, and some manufacturers with insufficient inventory still increase prices to attract grain sources. The overall price of corn in the southern region has risen, due to the tight logistics and transportation in the production area, coupled with the reluctance of farmers to sell, the arrival price of corn in the south has risen with the price of the production area. However, at present, some feed enterprises in the south still continue to use substitutes, and the pace of corn procurement is slower.
Today, the purchase price of second-class new grains of corn in Jinzhou Port is referenced to 2560-2590 yuan / ton, the price is up 10 yuan / ton compared with yesterday, the bulk weight is 690-710g / l, the moisture is within 15%, and the mildew is within 2%; the first-class new grain purchase grid reference is 2590-2600 yuan / ton. The price of corn in Bayuquan Port rose by 10-20 yuan / ton, and the mainstream purchase price of second-class corn was 2570-2590 yuan / ton, the bulk weight was 700-710g/l, the moisture was less than 15%, the impurity was less than 1%, and the mold was less than 2%; the first-class mainstream price was 2600-2610 yuan / ton, the moisture was less than 15%, and the impurity was less than 1%.
According to the results of the corn auction sales of Jilin Branch of China Grain Storage Network on November 5, the planned sales volume is 43329 tons, and the actual transaction quantity is 40211 tons, with a transaction rate of 93%. From 2016 to 2019, the reserve price of second-class corn was 2480-2500 yuan / ton, the lowest transaction price was 2480 yuan / ton, the highest transaction price was 2560 yuan / ton, and the premium ranged from 0-60 yuan / ton; in 2017, the reserve price of first-class corn was 2500 yuan / ton, the lowest transaction price was 2620 yuan / ton, the highest transaction price was 2635 yuan / ton, and the premium ranged from 120-135 yuan / ton.
In the futures market, today's main corn contract rushed up and fell, and the position volume increased first and then decreased. C2201 above the day's closing price of 2676 yuan / ton opened, during the night session once showed an upward trend of increasing positions, the highest rush to 2700 yuan / ton; into the daily session, the market appeared to reduce the position and fall, the lowest down to 2652 yuan / ton, the tail market closed at 2674 yuan / ton, the position volume slightly reduced. Today c2201 closes out a yin doji, which, in a technical sense, appears in the high price zone after a continuous rise, called the "Evening Star". The K-line closing out of the doji often indicates that the market has reached a turning point, and investors need to pay close attention to adjusting the trading strategy in time and being prepared for contingency.