#房地产如果下跌对老百姓意味着什么 #
In the eyes of the general public, the housing market is undoubtedly a "king"-like existence: because before 2017, the market was in a general upward situation, no matter which way, no matter whether the house bought was good or bad, it could make a profit in the rising property market. In such an environment, it is not difficult to understand people's mentality of "having money to buy a house, no money to smash the pot and sell iron to buy a house".
However, as the market regulation enters the deep water area, the logic of real estate began to change, according to the third quarter urban depositor survey released by the central bank, only 19.9% of the people expected the next quarter of the house price to rise, more than 80% of people believe that the market will not rise again. In other words, more and more people are affected by the downward trend of the market in a wait-and-see state, while worrying about buying losses, while watching the market situation to wait for the opportunity.
Whether to buy a house or not, different experts give very different advice. Just like the "6 wallet theory" put forward by Fan Gang, a monetary committee member of the central bank, it reminds young people without economic strength that if they can use the "wallets" of their elders to make up for the house, they should buy a house as soon as possible. In the eyes of Dong Fan, a professor at Beijing Normal University, it has become: I can't afford to buy a house because I am not strong in my ability to make a fortune.
However, as Li Ka-shing of "do not earn the last copper plate" said, any industry has a cyclicality, if excessive development, it may eventually cause a devastating ruin, in the past few years, the property market has acted as a "ocean", absorbing too much funds from all directions, the speculation boom set off, real estate developers continue to expand, so that this people's livelihood industry has long been drawbacks, out of the ground, rising to an unattainable position.
1, high house prices: In 2020, Shanghai ranked first in the per capita disposable income of each province with 72,200, so the annual income of a family of three (a couple and children) can reach nearly 150,000 yuan, but at the end of June 2021, the local average housing price has reached 69,000 / flat, which means that a family can only buy less than 3 square meters a year, if you want to save a down payment, it takes at least 15 years. This is still a big city, prefecture, city and county two or three thousand wages, how to support the housing prices starting from 10,000 yuan?
2, oversupply, high-altitude rate: institutional data show that the national new housing inventory has exceeded 500 million square meters, positive growth for 28 consecutive months, second-hand housing inventory is also growing rapidly, according to incomplete statistics, Nanjing, Tianjin, Chongqing and other cities listed more than 140,000 sets, of which Hefei increased 4,000 sets a month, Chongqing increased 6,000 sets.
In terms of vacancy rate, expert Qiu Baoxing mentioned in 2018 that the vacancy rate in Ordos is 70%, and the vacancy rate in Beijing is also 10-20%, although there are differences everywhere, but the overall situation is not low, like the data of some institutions is also roughly between 20-30%, and it is significantly higher than the reasonable range of 5-10%. Even so, high-rise buildings are still being built frequently in various places, and even some prefectures, cities and counties have built houses to 20 or 30 floors, completely ignoring safety hazards and livability problems.
Fortunately, in recent years, regulators have realized the problems caused by the rapid development of the housing market and the rapid rise in housing prices, especially inequality and wealth creation, continuous speculation, and the goal of "homeowners have their own houses".
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="12" > first, the market began to turn, and the investment attributes were greatly reduced</h1>
Since 2016, a tide of regulation has swept in, spreading from first-tier cities to third- and fourth-tier cities and counties, and there is no sign of ending. In terms of policy, on the one hand, we pay attention to cracking down on investment speculation, on the other hand, we protect the interests of buyers who just need to buy, whether it is from the national level or to local planning, the original intention of any measure is always based on the premise of returning to housing attributes. Coupled with the continuous improvement of regulatory means: 3 + 2 red lines, purchase restrictions, loan restrictions, price limits, strict control of high leverage and other measures, the market trend has gradually stabilized.
According to this trend, speculators will face huge losses. Statistics show that the number of cities where new house prices fell from June to September this year increased month by month, and second-hand houses ushered in "three consecutive declines", especially in September, 52 of the 70 cities saw the decline in the house price index, which was the most falling in 6 years. In addition, the problem of increasing the inventory of second-hand houses pointed out above is the performance of the insufficient expectations of speculators who hold multiple suites, because they cannot see the profit space, and they have begun to cut meat and sell houses.
<h1 class="pgc-h-arrow-right" data-track="33" > Second, the "height limit order" was officially released? The old reform has been comprehensively promoted, and the property has returned to residential properties</h1>
Recently, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the Ministry of Emergency Management jointly issued a notice proposing to strictly control the construction of new super high-rise buildings, and restrict the construction of new super-high-rise buildings of more than 150 meters and more than 250 meters respectively for cities with a permanent population of less than 3 million and more than 3 million. The height of the residential building in the county is also restricted, and the new residential building is mainly 6 floors, and the maximum is not more than 18 floors, of which the proportion of residential buildings with 6 floors and below should not be less than 75%.
Not only that, the transformation of old residential areas has also begun to be comprehensively promoted, and the transformation of 170,000 communities will be completed in the next 5 years, including supporting measures such as water circuit gas information and elevator installation.
In fang shujun's view, with the ministry of housing and urban-rural development, in the future, whether it is a big city or a county town, it will compress the construction of high-rise buildings, and at the same time, the transformation of old residential areas will take over the shed, and it is foreseeable that the future demolition and construction, as well as the phenomenon of excessive expansion of high-rise residences, will be reduced. At the same time, these two things also play an important role in the return of real estate to residential properties, after all, the rapid development of the housing market in the past, let many people know that real estate is not only satisfied with living, but also to achieve freedom of money, and now the old house is not demolished, and no longer build so high-rise buildings, which means that the profit space of investment real estate declines, and residential properties will be more valued than investment properties.
More and more people are moving from high-rise to multi-storey houses, and high-rise residential buildings are no longer popular?
According to the Shell Research Institute's 2020 consumer housing purchase behavior data, people's love for high-rise residences above 13 floors has plummeted, while 4-7 storey multi-storey houses have become consumers' favorite floors.
So, do home buyers change their views because of the official release of the height limit order and the promotion of the old reform? In fact, the current per capita living area exceeds 39 square meters, and people no longer have to worry about basic living problems and begin to pursue quality things. In addition, reality tells us that the high-rise houses that were once sought after by people are no longer popular, and more and more people are moving from high-rise houses to multi-storey houses, and some people have pointed out 3 practical problems.
1 is the noisy environment of the community, poor living experience. It is not a good thing to build a high house, and the high density of the residential population is accompanied by noisy noise every day, which directly affects the comfort of the owner's life. For example, a 25-storey house, calculated according to 2 ladders and 4 households, then a building gathers 100 households, and nearly 300 people come and go every day. 2 is that the infrastructure is aging quickly and maintenance is difficult. The community has a large population, which also increases the frequency of infrastructure use, especially the dependence on elevators is particularly high, if you encounter a certain elevator shutdown, then commuting, the elderly will be affected, and the floor height also greatly increases the difficulty of equipment maintenance.
3 is fire rescue is difficult. People pointed out that the worst problem of living in high-rise houses is the difficulty of fire rescue, because limited by the height of the building, the fire rescue equipment in many cities cannot meet the demand, especially under the premise that the equipment of small and medium-sized cities is not advanced, many times there are safety problems, and residents can only rely on self-help.
All of this, it is not difficult to find that the highlight of real estate has gone, under the influence of new regulations, and in the context of people's increasing demand for a better life, the next 2 types of houses may appreciate again.
One of the old houses is located in the core area after the renovation. As mentioned above, the old house will not be demolished casually, and the comprehensive promotion of the old house will greatly improve the comfort of the old house, and the value will also be improved, and the transformation of parking, greening, and installation of elevators will be improved, compared with high-rise houses with high population density, with a higher living experience. If the house is located in the core area, sitting on the supporting resources of the city such as transportation, education, and medical care, the value of the house will be further improved.
The second is a low-density multi-storey dwelling. Generally speaking, multi-storey housing in the same area will be higher than the price of high-rise houses, because it will be better than high-rise houses in terms of apartment type, housing rate, and living comfort. In particular, the residential building design code stipulates that elevators must be installed above 4 floors, and it is obvious that the value advantage of such houses will be more obvious in the future.
Fang said jun has something to say, to say it is not good, now there are so many houses, the vacancy ratio is so high, in the future different cities, different areas, and even different communities of the house, may have different price trends, buyers should fully consider their own economic strength, try to choose a house with greater potential, and good living comfort.
The pictures used in this article are from the Internet, if there is any infringement, please contact to delete. The article is original for the "Daily Room Talk", and it is strictly forbidden to reprint plagiarism, and it must be deeply investigated if it is found. (Author: Little Sheep's Head)