style="width:884px; font-family: Microsoft Yahei; text-align: justify; "> Editor's note: In the past 2019, the A-share market has come out of an obvious structural market, and the effect of making money is more obvious. For the stock market in 2020, all parties in the industry are also divergent, there are many optimists, cautious optimists, pessimists, the so-called "benevolent people see the benevolent, the wise see the wise". Just as everyone was celebrating the Spring Festival, a pneumonia epidemic "black swan" caused by the new coronavirus appeared. Regulators have introduced timely measures to stabilize the capital market. Despite this, the year of the rat stock market opened as expected under pressure, the opening gap opened a big low, according to the big data of the Pythagorean stock market, as of today's noon close, the total loss of A shares market value of about 3,988.97 billion yuan, the average loss of effective accounts in Shanghai and Shenzhen is about 25,000 yuan. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2746.61 points, down 7.72%, the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 9779.67 points, down 8.45%, and the ChiNext Index closed at 1795.77 points, down 6.85%. This is undoubtedly a blow to investor confidence.
In this regard, a number of institutions quickly released market views, generally believe that China's fundamentals have not changed, can not take this "black swan" as a long-term bearish China's capital market basis and excuse, A shares are in a good stage of internal and external environment, market mechanism continuous improvement, and low valuation, medium and long-term still have a high investment value.
Here, the small editor of "Finance No. 1 Academy" found out the speech made by Mr. Ma Fangye, deputy editor-in-chief of this newspaper, on the development of China's stock market and capital market this year at a public welfare salon held in January this year. In the current downturn, looking at his views may be helpful to investors.
On January 11, the "Renmin University Business School Alumni Club 2020 New Year Forum" was held in Beijing, and Ma Fangye, senior editor of the Economic Daily Group and deputy editor-in-chief of Securities Daily, delivered a speech on China's stock market.
Ma Fangye said in his speech that at present, China is facing major changes that have not been encountered in a century, the logic of the times is changing, and the investment logic of China's stock market is also changing. Under the background of the gradual optimization of the nourishing soil of the long-term value investment concept, the long-term value investment concept with rapid growth and stable performance growth as the core has begun to blossom and bear fruit.
As for the direction of the market in 2020, he said that 2020 is a key year for the stock market to turn bears and bulls. Judging from the operation of the stock index, it is predicted that this year's stock market will most likely be the year when the word "stable" is the first, but the word "stable" will also be "not calm" at the same time. Investors should use structured rather than trend thinking to see the future and win the future, and actively embrace China's core capital.
The stocks of the head enterprises that are truly valuable and growing are gradually entering the "paradise"
At the meeting, Ma Fangye made a brief review of the stock market in 2019. Looking back at 2019, Wind data shows that as of December 31, 2019, the total market value of Shanghai and Shenzhen was 64.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.45 trillion yuan over the end of 2018. Based on the 159 million investor accounts announced by China Settlement in early November, the per capita profit was 103,500 yuan. In 2019, the Shanghai Index, the Shenzhen Index and the Innovation Index rose by 22%, 44% and 43.79% respectively. Among them, the Shanghai index recorded its best annual performance since 2014, with the number of rising stocks reaching 2817, accounting for 70%; 40% of individual stocks outperformed the market. Overall, most small and medium-sized retail investors have "earned the index".
"However, the phenomenon of 'making money on the index is not making money' has become prominent." Ma Fangye said that a questionnaire on "how much did you earn in 2019" showed that as of the morning of January 2, 2020, more than 26,000 people participated, and the proportion of selected losses reached 46.9%; the proportion of those who made money but gained less than 20% accounted for 27.6%; only 9.5% of the income exceeded 50%. In the context of the index boom, most small and medium-sized retail investors "earned the index but did not earn silver".
Another major feature of the market trend in 2019 is that individual stocks are seriously differentiated, highlighting the difference between advantages and disadvantages, and the Matthew effect of the A-share market has initially emerged. In this regard, Ma Fangye further explained that in 2019, Guizhou Moutai rode the dust and became the creator of the A-share thousand yuan share king, and it continuously exceeded 1100 yuan / share and 1200 yuan / share. As of the close of trading on December 31, Guizhou Moutai reported closing at 1183 yuan / share, an increase of 100.51% during the year. In contrast, Hairun is difficult to find, refreshing the record of the lowest price in the history of A shares, and on June 20, hairun stock price that entered the delisting period was only 0.13 yuan per share, becoming a standard "gross stock".
"It is not difficult to see that since the 2015 stock market crash, China's stock market is indeed changing. The stocks of the head enterprises that are truly valuable and growing will gradually enter the 'paradise'; while the story stocks and junk stocks will gradually go to hell. Ma Fangye said.
The logic of the times has changed, and the investment logic of China's stock market is also changing
Ask where the canal is as clear as promised, for there is a source of living water. At the root of this, Ma Fangye believes that the logic of the current era has changed.
"The first ten years are the ten years of the star shift of things. Time is changing, the environment is changing, dreams are changing, and the meaning and value of people and things are changing. From matter to consciousness, from time to space, from nature to society, all values are being reshaped, all existence is changing, and all structures are being adjusted. It can be said that the current era is an era in which everything must be reconstructed, and it is also an era of value reconstruction. ”
Ma Fangye said that at present, China is facing a major change that has not been encountered in a century. China's economy is shifting from high-speed growth to high-quality development, from old kinetic energy to new kinetic energy. Real estate is already the outlet of the past, science and technology has become a new outlet, innovation-driven development, science and technology lead the future, China has entered a strong cycle of scientific and technological development that determines the development cycle of productive forces. Secondly, the capital market has the role of pulling the whole body in financial operation. Financial activity, economic activity, financial stability, economic stability, economic prosperity, financial prosperity, economic strength, financial strength. The role of China's capital market and China's stock market has risen to a national strategy. In addition, the next decade will be a decade of digital transformation and innovation, and the empowerment of fintech will surely bring about a redefinition of wealth. "We need to look at the future with structural rather than trend-oriented thinking, and look at this era that is reshaping logic."
Ma Fangye further said that the investment logic of China's stock market is also changing. "At present, A-share stocks are seriously differentiated, highlighting the difference between good and bad, and good money continues to drive away bad money, highlighting the advantages of head enterprises." These trends gradually reflect that good stocks are not necessarily good companies, but in the future, good companies must be good stocks, bad companies must not be good stocks, from the perspective of the stock market trend in 2019, valuable and growing enterprises, the market will give due market value and valuation. It is gratifying that the long-term value investment concept of rapid growth and steady performance growth has begun to bear fruit. ”
At the same time, Ma Fangye mentioned that the nourishing soil of the current long-term value investment concept is gradually being optimized.
He said that the new "Securities Law" has grown teeth; strong supervision has become the norm, corporate fraud and fraud have been more rigid constraints, the legitimate rights and interests of investors, especially small investors, have been protected to the greatest extent at present; the continuous growth of institutions, especially the accelerated entry of foreign capital, has solidified the concept of value investment; under the registration system, there are inherently higher strict requirements for listed enterprises and investment banks. The new economy and new listed companies represented by the science and technology innovation board will gradually show a spillover effect on the traditional stock of listed companies; the culture of leeks and cut leeks will gradually give way to a healthy price investment culture. The frenzied bulls that are violently rising will slowly be replaced by slow cattle and long cattle. The fast money to earn the price increase will gradually decline, and the slow money to earn economic and corporate growth will become the mainstream in the future; investment in the era of negative interest rates should pay more attention to the "allocation principle", use less or no leverage, lengthen the cycle, reduce high yield expectations, and make slow money.
"To sum up, in the face of major changes that have not been encountered in a hundred years, the investment logic of China's stock market still has to be deeply rooted in the concept of value and growth, and seize the head of the enterprise." Ma Fangye said.
2020 is a pivotal year for the stock market to turn bears into bulls
Looking forward to 2020, Ma Fangye said that 2020 is a key year for the stock market to turn bears into bulls. He mentioned that 2020 is the year of building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way and the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan. This is the time cycle node and policy direction in 2020, and the policy orientation must ensure that all fields of the economy, society and other fields, including the stock market and capital market, must operate smoothly. Therefore, from the operation of the stock index, it is predicted that this year's stock market will most likely be a year of "stability".
"I think there are generally four conditions for a bull market to form. First, macroeconomic fundamentals must be stabilized, and corporate profits must be effectively improved and gradually revealed upward inflection points. Second, the stock market has been sluggish for a long time, and the overall valuation of the market is low. Third, monetary policy is relatively loose. Fourth, the government attaches importance to and supports policies. These four conditions involve three aspects: macro fundamentals, enterprise micro and policy funds. The first three are endogenous and necessary, and the last is exogenous, sufficient. At present, these four conditions cannot all be satisfied, but can only be partially satisfied. ”
Finally, Ma Fangye said that while the word "stable" is the first, it will also be "not calm". But every seed that survives the winter has a dream about spring. There is a "hurry" in the word "stability", which means that we should guard against impatience and impatience, and maintain patience and peace. There is a "struggle" in the word "Jing", which is to make us actively strive for something and do something and not to do something! The future "bull market" will definitely be different from the previous "bull market", and we must use structural rather than trend thinking to see the future win the future. I hope that everyone will take advantage of certain wealth growth opportunities in an uncertain future, actively embrace China's core assets, and wait for the long-term value investment concept of rapid growth and steady performance growth to begin to bear fruit.
This article originates from the public account of Securities Daily Finance No. 1
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