This week (1025-1029 below the same) the overall trend of the market is mainly adjusted, and the one-week K line combination is 2 yang plus 3 yin. The magnitude of the adjustment is much greater than the magnitude of the rebound. There was still a little gap left in the market on Thursday that was not filled. Friday's bottoming rally basically covered Thursday's yin line. However, at present, such a rebound is still insufficient. At the beginning of the week, the disk surface showed that the power sector and the energy storage sector rose in the front, and on Friday, there was a big rise in photovoltaics and meta-universes in new energy. At present, the basic views of institutional investors on new energy sources such as photovoltaics and electricity, which have a more certain direction, have not shifted. Therefore, the future market should also pay more attention. In addition, I have been talking about the direction of consumption, with the arrival of "Double Eleven" and the superimposed year-end effect, the consumer sector should be paid attention to.
Latest News:
The PMI was released in October
In October, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.2%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, continuing to be below the critical point, and the manufacturing boom weakened. The release of this data shows that the macro-economy is still not performing well, so it is necessary to be cautious about the economic situation in the next two months of this year, and of course, it may not be ruled out that the central bank will take some actions on monetary policy, such as adjusting quantitative tools such as the reserve requirement ratio again.
The Beijing Stock Exchange left Zhang one step closer
The Establishment of the Beijing Stock Exchange (hereinafter referred to as the Beijing Stock Exchange) is an important measure to deepen the reform of the New Third Board, which is conducive to improving the construction of multi-level capital markets and better serving the development of the real economy. In order to further clarify the relevant arrangements for the transfer of the board, the CSRC has revised the Guiding Opinions on the Transfer and Listing of Companies Listed on the National SME Share Transfer System to form the Guiding Opinions on the Transfer of Listed Companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange (Draft for Solicitation of Comments), which is now open to the public for comments. In addition, the latest news is: on the evening of October 30, the CSRC issued the basic system of the Beijing Stock Exchange, and clarified that the effective date of the basic system is November 15. This also means that the Beijing Stock Exchange will open on November 15, when more than 68 companies in the selected layer of the New Third Board market will all be translated into the Beijing Stock Exchange.
Bureau of Statistics: The total profit of industries above designated size performed well
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics a few days ago, from January to September, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in the country was 6,344.08 billion yuan, an increase of 44.7% year-on-year, and an average growth of 18.8% in two years (based on the number of the same period in 2019, calculated by geometric average method). In the third quarter, the profits of industrial enterprises increased by 14.3% year-on-year, continuing to maintain double-digit growth; the average growth rate of 15.1% in two years, generally maintaining a good growth trend. Among them, the profit in September increased by 16.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 6.2 percentage points faster than that of the previous month.
Weekly Session Review:
This week, the Shanghai market opened at 3574 points, the highest 3625 points, the lowest 3502 points, and the closing price was 3547 points, down 35 points, down 0.98%. The Shenzhen Component Index opened at 14491 points, the highest 14682 points, the lowest 14188 points, and closed at 14451 points, down 41 points, down 0.29%. The ChiNext opened at 3303 points, the highest 3370 points, the lowest 3253 points, and the closing price of 3350 points, up 65 points, an increase of 2.00%.
The biggest gainer we saw this week was the ChiNext board.
Motherboard Technical Analysis:
This week, the broader market continued to show a downward correction trend, with three consecutive yin lines directly knocking the market down from above 3600 points to near 3500 points. The pressure of the bears is not strong, many parties originally wanted to use Monday's rebound trend to do a hand, helpless 30-day moving average pressure is too large, last week I have said in the article, the pressure of the 30-day moving average is relatively large, Monday and Tuesday did not rush over, so the market can only choose to pull back.
The broader market fell to a low of the week near the annual line to gain support, and closed friday back above the half-year line. At present, the annual line is at 3494 points, the half-year line is at 3546 points, and the half-year line and the annual line are moving up. The 5-day moving average crosses the 10-day and 20-day moving averages, and the 30-day moving average turns down. Next week the broader market is likely to hit the 20-day moving average. From a purely technical point of view, the J value of KDJ on the large market day is up, but there is still a distance from the golden cross. It is hoped that the market can continue to rise until the third-line golden cross, but from the position of the third line, this hope is relatively slim, and once the market falls back in the next week, then the J value will turn down, so that the market breaks 3500 points is possible. The daily MACD shows that there is a dead fork in the fast and slow lines, the green column pile is released, the fast and slow lines are back below the zero axis, and the market is back to a weak state.
Looking at the weekly line, this week the market continues to appear with a K line with an upper and lower shadow, and unlike last week, this week's small yin line appears, and the length of the upper and lower shadow line is similar. Such a trend does not give a clear signal of rise and fall in the future. The same two K lines, one yang and one yin, oscillating mainly. From the moving average system, the broader market fell below the 20-week moving average this week, and the 5-week and 10-week moving averages were dead forks. The physical consolidation is between the 10-week and 2-week moving averages. Weekly MACD shows fast and slow lines dead forks, green column piles released. This is not very favorable for the trend of the future market, that is to say, there is only a weak rebound on the future index, and it cannot go up the market. The third line of KDJ continues to diverge downwards, the J value has not yet entered the oversold area, and technically there is still room for the market to fall.
GEM Technical Analysis :
This week,the ChiNext board came out of the N-shaped situation, rising on Monday, falling for 3 consecutive trading days from Tuesday to Wednesday, but Friday's sharp rally directly covered the yin line on Wednesday and Thursday. Due to the stronger rebound on Friday, the market regained its 5-day moving average. At present, the 5-day moving average has flattened and up again, and the 10-day moving average golden cross has a 60-day moving average. At present, the 20-day moving average has strong support for the market, and the half-year line is still going up. The third line of KDJ is sticky, and as long as the ChiNext board continues to rise next week, then the third line will appear a golden cross, which is beneficial to the future trend of the ChiNext board. The daily MACD also shows that the fast and slow lines are synchronously upwards, the opening is slightly increased, and the red pillar pile is enlarged again, so the CHINext is likely to hit a new high of 3370 points next week.
Looking at the weekly line, this week's ChiNext pulled out a small Yang weekly K line, after 8 weeks of consolidation, this week's index finally re-stood on the 20-week moving average. At present, the 5-week, 10-week and 30-week moving averages are all going up, and the 10-week moving average has strong support for the ChiNext board. If the CHINext continues to rally next week, the 5-week moving average will be a golden cross at the 20-week moving average. From the weekly KDJ, the J value is close to the overbought area, and next week will enter a strong area. The opening of the weekly MACD fast and slow line continues to shrink, the green pillar pile is shortened, and the short-term chiNext board slowly enters the trend of accelerated rebound from the upward, and the future market can pay close attention.
Editor's words
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The column of Wang Hui, the author of this article, has been stationed in "One Fortune Knows", and the analysis of the previous market point range and the key focus sections have been recorded as audio. For more financial knowledge, please click on the lower left corner to go to the "Yicai Knows" financial knowledge learning platform.
Author: Wang Hui
Editor: Leon
Producer: Wang Junji
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